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Old 10-18-2018, 06:18 PM
 
Location: Salisbury,NC
10,518 posts, read 4,386,773 times
Reputation: 4637

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The hedge fund managers know what is going on. So far a half dozen or more have closed up shop and distributed the profit to their donors.


They all know the bubble is about to pop.
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Old 10-18-2018, 07:34 PM
 
26,413 posts, read 8,972,430 times
Reputation: 9182
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boss View Post
The hedge fund managers know what is going on. So far a half dozen or more have closed up shop and distributed the profit to their donors.


They all know the bubble is about to pop.
Nonsense !!! A hand full s nothing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/12/b...dge-funds.html
“Hedge funds simply do not do what they claim from a risk or return perspective,”


More Hedge Funds Closed Than Opened in 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...returns-lagged

A total of 784 funds were liquidated while 735 launched,

Hedge funds on average returned 6.7 percent on an asset-weighted basis last year, well below the performance of the S&P 500 Index.
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Old 10-18-2018, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
475 posts, read 95,554 times
Reputation: 256
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
People put all their eggs in one basket and blame Trump for their failure.

No reports yet of policeman hanging out the windows of tall buildings trying to talk people off the ledge. Looks like we have a ways to go before a panic sets in.

Two recent all time highs in the DOW indicating a possible double top and people didn't sell at the high like conventional wisdom suggest. Some people haven't learned the market doesn't always go up. Sometimes it goes down too.
phma, please take a Reading Comprehension test - Iíll pay for it if you can somehow pass! aka, get diploma, get reimbursed. Itíll be a win - win for all of us! We wonít hafta put up w/your nonsense!

No one, including me, said that the Dow will drop to 10,000! I, and others, politely are pointing out that the market HASNíT GROWN at all in 2018. And, itís NOT a coincidence that trade wars, inflation, interest hikes due to Fíing Moron all happened in 2018
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Old 10-18-2018, 08:06 PM
 
26,413 posts, read 8,972,430 times
Reputation: 9182
Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyNC View Post
phma, please take a Reading Comprehension test - I’ll pay for it if you can somehow pass! aka, get diploma, get reimbursed. It’ll be a win - win for all of us! We won’t hafta put up w/your nonsense!

No one, including me, said that the Dow will drop to 10,000! I, and others, politely are pointing out that the market HASN’T GROWN at all in 2018. And, it’s NOT a coincidence that trade wars, inflation, interest hikes due to F’ing Moron all happened in 2018

You love being here. That's why you keep coming back.
That's why I created the thread.
For everyone to see and enjoy TDS, the economy, the market and how they intertwine. All twisted together like little Molly's pigtails.

Keep your money. Sounds like you may need it for gas or you could take an asset allocation class. That's what all the real investors are doing right now. Not putting all their eggs in one basket.

I suppose Trump controls the Italian budget, had S.A. kill the reporter, and the worlds stock markets too.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/mark...214228839.html

traders citing the Sino-U.S. trade war, Italy's budget concerns and a widening gap between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
European stocks closed near the day's lows and Wall Street slid after the European Commission said Italy's 2019 budget draft is in "particularly serious" breach of EU budget rules, a step that prepares the ground for what would be an unprecedented rejection of a member state's fiscal plan.

Last edited by phma; 10-18-2018 at 08:31 PM..
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Old 10-18-2018, 08:31 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
8,941 posts, read 2,686,313 times
Reputation: 6857
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
This is how tops begin. If you look at stock market charts for, say, around 2000, or 2007, you see the markets spent almost a whole year forming a top before crashing. Even for the mini-crash in 2011, the stock market spent several months forming a top prior to the August mini-crash. What we've seen so far this year could very well be the left shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern. If so, there will be a recovery, and possibly a new high, before stalling out once again and tumbling. After that, the right shoulder would form, and then would come the crash (or at least, mini-crash as in 2011).

Studying stock market patterns is very interesting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
That is true, but when you have a market that is clearly in the process of forming some sort of major (or at least semi-major) top, a series of 3% 1-day corrections within a relatively short time span DO mean something. And we HAVE had a series of 3% 1-day corrections lately. As I noted on Feb 2, stock market tops don't form all at once, it can take many months. This is what you're seeing now.
It is now 7-8 months after I posted these two posts. So far, so good. And the late Sept high on the S&P 500 would be the head. Next would come the right shoulder.
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Old 10-18-2018, 09:12 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
8,941 posts, read 2,686,313 times
Reputation: 6857
With a copied and pasted print screen from Yahoo finance, this is my wild guess as to how the rest of the pattern will play out.
Attached Thumbnails
President Trump is absolutely the greatest on the economy. Dow breaks 25,000-djia.jpg  
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:00 PM
 
26,413 posts, read 8,972,430 times
Reputation: 9182
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
With a copied and pasted print screen from Yahoo finance, this is my wild guess as to how the rest of the pattern will play out.

I don't want to be too critical but it looks like you are seeing what you want to see and its a common mistake with technical analyst. Don't get discouraged, keep after it, eventually you will get it.
Honestly it looks more like a double top. I'll make the case with the link.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

1)After a long bullish trends, the price rises to a peak and subsequently declines to form a trough.
2)The price rises again to form a second high substantially above the initial peak and declines again.
3)The price rises a third time, but only to the level of the first peak, before declining once more.

In addition what you drew in didn't reach the level of the first peak but if it did you would have a triple top.


To be honest it doesn't fit the classic definition of a double top either but its closer than a head and shoulders.
What your chart actually shows is a false breakout to the upside.

Last edited by phma; 10-18-2018 at 10:59 PM..
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Old 10-18-2018, 10:37 PM
 
Location: north central Ohio
8,422 posts, read 4,347,818 times
Reputation: 4976
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
With a copied and pasted print screen from Yahoo finance, this is my wild guess as to how the rest of the pattern will play out.

ONLY in LA-LA-LAND!


Dow closes nearly 550 points lower as market rout deepens
Dow closes nearly 550 points lower as market rout deepens


Dow closes more than 300 points lower on China jitters
Thursday's decline added to the market's steep losses for this month. The Dow and S&P 500 have fallen more than 3 percent each, while the Nasdaq is down more than 6.5 percent.
Dow closes more than 300 points lower on China jitters


Budget Deficit Ballooned in 2018, Treasury Says
For the full 2018 fiscal year, corporate tax receipts were nearly $205 billion. That figure is a drop from $297 billion in fiscal year 2017.

Many Republicans, including Mr. Mnuchin, said during last year’s debate over tax policy that the proposed cuts would pay for themselves by producing faster economic growth and correspondingly higher federal revenues. Outside analysts disagreed. The Joint Committee on Taxation, the official tax scorekeeper of Congress, projected that the law would reduce revenues by $1 trillion, even when accounting for additional growth.

Budget Deficit Ballooned in 2018, Treasury Says

Last edited by i_love_autumn; 10-18-2018 at 10:47 PM..
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Old 10-19-2018, 07:14 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
8,941 posts, read 2,686,313 times
Reputation: 6857
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
I don't want to be too critical but it looks like you are seeing what you want to see and its a common mistake with technical analyst. Don't get discouraged, keep after it, eventually you will get it.
Honestly it looks more like a double top. I'll make the case with the link.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

1)After a long bullish trends, the price rises to a peak and subsequently declines to form a trough.
2)The price rises again to form a second high substantially above the initial peak and declines again.
3)The price rises a third time, but only to the level of the first peak, before declining once more.

In addition what you drew in didn't reach the level of the first peak but if it did you would have a triple top.

To be honest it doesn't fit the classic definition of a double top either but its closer than a head and shoulders.
What your chart actually shows is a false breakout to the upside.
A head and shoulders is a kind of triple top.

And yes, it could also be a double top.

I admit it doesn't look like a "typical" head-and-shoulders (or double/triple top) - the neckline is broader than you'd normally see. But head-and-shoulders or double/triple tops come in all kinds of shapes and sizes, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.

That said, the top that might be forming is more apparent if you look at a really big chart on Yahoo finance. At the bottom-right of the chart (the ">>" thing), scroll over to see the most recent years:

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5ED...JjaGFydCJ9fX19

It really does look like a top forming.
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Old 10-19-2018, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Great Britain
11,460 posts, read 3,915,845 times
Reputation: 7093
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
President Trump is absolutely the greatest on the economy. Dow breaks 25,000

They say it still has room to run !!!!

Go ahead 401K make my day !!!
I don't like to burst your bubble but stock market indices around the world are at record highs and it's nothing to do with Trump.

FTSE 100 surges to a fresh record high - BBC News

S&P 500 share index notches up record-breaking winning streak - BBC

Nikkei rises to nearly 27-year high on weaker yen | The Japan Times

DAX hits all-time high, rest of Europe at 2-year highs - FXStreet

HSI surges to close at new record high - The Standard

Sensex all time high - The Economic Times

Last edited by Brave New World; 10-19-2018 at 08:26 AM..
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