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Old 10-29-2018, 08:22 AM
 
Location: Florida
62,355 posts, read 34,011,071 times
Reputation: 10351

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Hey, the market hit 25 000.

Oh, it did in January too.......actually it hit 26 000 in January....
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Old 10-29-2018, 08:26 AM
 
11,248 posts, read 5,897,897 times
Reputation: 3518
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
With health care being 20% of our economy and the Fed. Government budget being 20% it's hard to imagine. Add in local, state and county government and education and you have a majority of the GDP.

Add in the very basics - some of which are partially consumer spending, but not really.....

Food
Energy
Interest Rates

And you're most of the way there.

This is why GDP is indicative of nothing in a indebted and fully advanced society like ours. Tariffs add to GDP....great! If I get sick I add to GDP.

And, yes, this is something that has been clear for many decades. RFL gave a famous speech about it. You can google it and find it on Youtube. It's quite striking because here we are 60 years later and it seems many just don't get it.

If I can buy rice for $2 a pound GDP may be low, but at $5 a pound it is higher. Is that a good thing?

GDP is a good indicators during the growing years - the industrialization of a country - if used to compare it to other countries. That's about it.

The current model, IMHO, is often negative. I'm sure GDP went up when people were buying houses at 3X the price they were worth, right?

Only if we tied GDP to real wage growth of the masses would it mean anything. For example, if wages rose 5% this year and inflation was 2% and GDP was 3.5% and debt and deficit (both personal, corporate and government) was the same...then we could say a small gain was eeked out. Maybe.
I've always been in the camp that higher GDP isn't always good, and that our government considering higher spending and lower savings as a measure of success is irresponsible, so I think we are in agreement here.

I mean the best way to protect the every day people from hard economic times is to ensure they aren't overspending, but instead are saving extra cash to get through hard times. However by pushing consumption with every lever they have, and simultaneously keeping interest rates low, its doubling down on the incentive for people to spend rather than save.

Last edited by t206; 10-29-2018 at 09:43 AM.. Reason: Level instead of level
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Old 10-29-2018, 08:27 AM
 
11,248 posts, read 5,897,897 times
Reputation: 3518
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber View Post
Hey, the market hit 25 000.

Oh, it did in January too.......actually it hit 26 000 in January....
Plenty of ETFs out there to bet against the major indexes, volatility creates opportunity.
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Old 10-29-2018, 09:22 AM
 
3,988 posts, read 1,651,878 times
Reputation: 2274
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
With health care being 20% of our economy and the Fed. Government budget being 20% it's hard to imagine. Add in local, state and county government and education and you have a majority of the GDP.

Add in the very basics - some of which are partially consumer spending, but not really.....

Food
Energy
Interest Rates

And you're most of the way there.

This is why GDP is indicative of nothing in a indebted and fully advanced society like ours. Tariffs add to GDP....great! If I get sick I add to GDP.

And, yes, this is something that has been clear for many decades. RFL gave a famous speech about it. You can google it and find it on Youtube. It's quite striking because here we are 60 years later and it seems many just don't get it.

If I can buy rice for $2 a pound GDP may be low, but at $5 a pound it is higher. Is that a good thing?

GDP is a good indicators during the growing years - the industrialization of a country - if used to compare it to other countries. That's about it.

The current model, IMHO, is often negative. I'm sure GDP went up when people were buying houses at 3X the price they were worth, right?

Only if we tied GDP to real wage growth of the masses would it mean anything. For example, if wages rose 5% this year and inflation was 2% and GDP was 3.5% and debt and deficit (both personal, corporate and government) was the same...then we could say a small gain was eeked out. Maybe.


problem is trumpeters need something to cheer about, a "win" for their "team" so this is what they take. Most can't even explain it, but ape #Winning and cheer for their team like the used to do with the NFL before Daddy told them it was bad.
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Old 10-29-2018, 09:27 AM
 
25,881 posts, read 8,805,594 times
Reputation: 9015
Quote:
Originally Posted by Metsfan53 View Post
problem is trumpeters need something to cheer about, a "win" for their "team" so this is what they take. Most can't even explain it, but ape #Winning and cheer for their team like the used to do with the NFL before Daddy told them it was bad.

The right choses cheer and the left choses fear.
Investors chose to make money. Buy low sell high.
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Old 10-29-2018, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,272 posts, read 39,522,402 times
Reputation: 18682
Does Trump even mention the stock market anymore? Anyway, by the time the Fed and the tariffs get done here, $20K is gonna look good on the Dow.
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Old 10-29-2018, 09:50 AM
 
11,248 posts, read 5,897,897 times
Reputation: 3518
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Does Trump even mention the stock market anymore? Anyway, by the time the Fed and the tariffs get done here, $20K is gonna look good on the Dow.
Last I heard he was blaming the Fed for the market going down.
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Old 10-29-2018, 09:54 AM
 
14,377 posts, read 3,795,687 times
Reputation: 10566
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
I've always been in the camp that higher GDP isn't always good, and that our government considering higher spending and lower savings as a measure of success is irresponsible, so I think we are in agreement here.

I mean the best way to protect the every day people from hard economic times is to ensure they aren't overspending, but instead are saving extra cash to get through hard times. However by pushing consumption with every lever they have, and simultaneously keeping interest rates low, its doubling down on the incentive for people to spend rather than save.
I'm with you and have lived that way my entire adult life. But I think we are the exceptions and "popular" government, as the saying goes, gives the people what they want (and good and hard...)...

It is the people who want their stuff despite making their children and future generations pay the bills. Add that to the Capitalist Health Care and Security State (all about profit there too) and we have simply spent more than we have. There is no choice. Our system is designed to bring out the maximum selfishness in each individual - and "the commons" lose in that regards.

Greed is not Good. Neither for the planet, ourselves or our children or our country.
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Old 10-29-2018, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Florida
62,355 posts, read 34,011,071 times
Reputation: 10351
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
Plenty of ETFs out there to bet against the major indexes, volatility creates opportunity.
Sure. Most retirees don't gamble with their life savings.

The market is going down again......
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Old 10-29-2018, 12:57 PM
 
25,881 posts, read 8,805,594 times
Reputation: 9015
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber View Post
Sure. Most retirees don't gamble with their life savings.

The market is going down again......
If that was true they would only put their money in markets that never go down.
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