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Old 12-13-2018, 02:49 PM
 
11,327 posts, read 5,929,382 times
Reputation: 3544

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Seems that the average little investor is losing confidence in the Trump stock market.

"With stocks tanking, pessimism among mom and pop investors hits highest in more than five years

A brutal fourth quarter for the stock market is exacting a substantial price on investor psychology, particularly for the mom and pop crowd.

Pessimism among retail investors is at the worst level in about 5˝ years, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey. The 48.9 percent of those who think the S&P 500 will be negative in six months is up 18.4 percentage points from last week’s reading and is the highest since April 11, 2013..."


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/pess...ive-years.html

MAGA!


Ken
Thats how it always works. Small investors get spooked and panic sell, driving prices further down while big investors and the institutions step in and take advantage. Always some speculation that the big investors and institutions are working to manipulate prices to shake out the weak hands.
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Old 12-13-2018, 04:30 PM
 
14,645 posts, read 3,883,622 times
Reputation: 10669
NASDAQ 2000 - approx. 4,000
NASDAQ 2018 - Approx. 7,000

3.2%

So much for the DOW being not "the market". The tech heavy index has done much worse.

Yet many are saying we've have a BULL market and need a correct....DOWN from that 3.2%.

Wow.
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Old 12-13-2018, 04:37 PM
 
14,645 posts, read 3,883,622 times
Reputation: 10669
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
Thats how it always works. Small investors get spooked and panic sell, driving prices further down while big investors and the institutions step in and take advantage. Always some speculation that the big investors and institutions are working to manipulate prices to shake out the weak hands.
Many smaller investors left the stock market for good. % of Americans who own stocks has been heading down....and among younger Americans (who sense the game is rigged AND don't make as much as former generations), I think only 1/3rd own stocks.

Many people get spooked and never go back. I know quite a few folks who never put another penny in after the GWB Great Recession.

It may not make sense in the long run, but people who work for their money can't stomach seeing it go down 30 or 40%. The get "market PTSD" and get out.
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Old 12-13-2018, 05:45 PM
 
11,327 posts, read 5,929,382 times
Reputation: 3544
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
NASDAQ 2000 - approx. 4,000
NASDAQ 2018 - Approx. 7,000

3.2%

So much for the DOW being not "the market". The tech heavy index has done much worse.

Yet many are saying we've have a BULL market and need a correct....DOWN from that 3.2%.

Wow.
The DOW still isn't the market. The overall % return doesn't change that fact at all. Obviously an index with 30 companies in it isn't as well diversified as other indexes or mutual funds, and most likely the average investor isn't completely invested in a fund that tracks ne specific index.

The largest mutual fund in the world is the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...formance/VTSMX

It has $657B in AUM, those are the kinds of things small investors with IRAs and other accounts are invested in. That has a 14.4% return over the last 10 years (as of 11/30/18) and a 9.6% return since 1992.

https://www.thebalance.com/vanguard-...market-2466418

Quote:
VTSMX is designed to provide investors with exposure to the entire U.S. equity market, including small-, mid- and large-cap companies across both growth and value. The fund tracks the CRSP US Total Market Index, representing nearly 100% of the investable U.S. equity market.
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Old 12-13-2018, 05:49 PM
 
11,327 posts, read 5,929,382 times
Reputation: 3544
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Many smaller investors left the stock market for good. % of Americans who own stocks has been heading down....and among younger Americans (who sense the game is rigged AND don't make as much as former generations), I think only 1/3rd own stocks.

Many people get spooked and never go back. I know quite a few folks who never put another penny in after the GWB Great Recession.

It may not make sense in the long run, but people who work for their money can't stomach seeing it go down 30 or 40%. The get "market PTSD" and get out.
If people are scared of the market, don't understand it, don't have a decent amount of liquid savings, or dont have a long time frame for the money, then they don't belong in the market to begin with. And that is a good thing if those folks aren't in it.

I don't know what the GWB Great Recession is. Sounds like a recession named after a bridge in NY or a former president, either way I don't see either of those entities having caused that recession.

I definitely "work for my money" and while I don't like seeing it take a dive in value, I know what the future holds, and I'm quite happy to add money at these levels knowing my risk tolerance and time frame.

You seem like you know a thing or two about investing, yet you also seem like you are here stoking fear and uncertainty. Doesn't add up.
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Old 12-14-2018, 07:34 AM
 
Location: Florida
62,664 posts, read 34,157,952 times
Reputation: 10402
DOW -280
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Old 12-14-2018, 07:49 AM
 
5,214 posts, read 1,548,288 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber View Post
DOW -280
The greatest.
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Old 12-14-2018, 07:56 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,290 posts, read 39,616,576 times
Reputation: 18709
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber View Post
DOW -280
On bad economic news coming out of China in part due to tariffs. It's all connected in a global economy. You can't hurt trading partners without hurting yourself in the process. Trump is engineering a worldwide recession here.
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Old 12-14-2018, 08:11 AM
 
14,645 posts, read 3,883,622 times
Reputation: 10669
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
If people are scared of the market, don't understand it, don't have a decent amount of liquid savings, or dont have a long time frame for the money, then they don't belong in the market to begin with. And that is a good thing if those folks aren't in it.

I don't know what the GWB Great Recession is. Sounds like a recession named after a bridge in NY or a former president, either way I don't see either of those entities having caused that recession.

I definitely "work for my money" and while I don't like seeing it take a dive in value, I know what the future holds, and I'm quite happy to add money at these levels knowing my risk tolerance and time frame.

You seem like you know a thing or two about investing, yet you also seem like you are here stoking fear and uncertainty. Doesn't add up.
I'll be the first to say most people should listen to Bogle. I invested 500 a month into his funds for two decades or more.

However, in the purview of this thread, people SHOULD be scared of the market at this point in time. Things are not normal. By many measures the Great Recession was worse than the Depression and we are not fully out of it yet.

The "bigly Trump Economy" is largely a lie. That's important for folks to know because if they don't do their homework, they will get taken...and, as others have said, the market LOVES to eat retail investors for lunch.

I didn't sell any holdings during the 20-40% downtown (Great Recession) and of course that turned out well for me.

But I don't look at the world just through my eyes. Most of the other smart people I know don't touch the stock market - my dad, my brother, my cousin (programmer in Silicon Valley) even my Son.

I think it's important for you to keep this thread in context...of the OP and of the current situation. Longer term I'm like Buffet (my largest holding now that I'm older). I'm Bullish on America and Trade in general.

However, all my experience tells me that the Trump Chaos is bad for the markets...and it is proving to be do. While I didn't sell at the Great Recession, I have sold (perhaps 15%) now.

When you have crazy people at the helm you cannot predict what is going to happen. Even conservative investments are no longer conservative.

This too shall pass but an investor needs to know if they have the time frame. As one example, a RE investor in the 2005-2006 time frame would likely not even be whole today, 12 years later. Japanese index investors went 20 years plus with no gain.

All in all the stock market is still the only place to be IMHO. However, that does not mean our Dear Leader hasn't ruined everything he touches....and scared the market away from what would be typical gains.

Also, the story about the Great Bull Run is made-up no matter what index you look at...fear or optimism drives the markets and right now it's the former.

I hope that makes things a bit more clear. I never made any claim other than I have done well over 30 years...(longer, but I don't have accurate records!)....

Being at retirement age now my time frame is a bit shorter and our need for money to live (have no salary for the first time in 40+ years) means that the market matters. Whether one year or YTD my conservative "bogle" investments are down (only slightly, but still)...yet Trump will dismiss reality and say that things have never been so good. That's total BS.
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Old 12-14-2018, 09:30 AM
 
Location: Florida
62,664 posts, read 34,157,952 times
Reputation: 10402
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
On bad economic news coming out of China in part due to tariffs. It's all connected in a global economy. You can't hurt trading partners without hurting yourself in the process. Trump is engineering a worldwide recession here.
Self inflicted wounds.

DOW -380

Looks like US housing is taking a beating too.
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