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Old 01-30-2019, 02:14 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,865 posts, read 9,532,948 times
Reputation: 15579

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Before we get all excited ... as many who know about markets will tell you, you need to pay attention to the bond market.

After the Fed announced it's latest policy, which was more dovish .. treasury yields cratered. Yesterday (I actually checked) the yields on the 1-year through 5-year were inverted. Now, that includes (barely) the yield on the 7-year.

https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/
US 1-YR - 2.579
US 7-YR - 2.578

That, of course, is because the Fed getting dovish, means they are also getting more pessimistic.

 
Old 01-30-2019, 02:20 PM
 
34,300 posts, read 15,649,302 times
Reputation: 13053
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Before we get all excited ... as many who know about markets will tell you, you need to pay attention to the bond market.

After the Fed announced it's latest policy, which was more dovish .. treasury yields cratered. Yesterday (I actually checked) the yields on the 1-year through 5-year were inverted. Now, that includes (barely) the yield on the 7-year.

https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/
US 1-YR - 2.579
US 7-YR - 2.578

That, of course, is because the Fed getting dovish, means they are also getting more pessimistic.
Yeah, that must be what is driving the DOW higher, all the pessimism.
Consumer sentiment dropped too.
 
Old 01-30-2019, 02:21 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,078 posts, read 51,224,761 times
Reputation: 28324
over 25K again. Don't get too excited. It won't last. The exuberance is the profit from the tax sugar high. Everyone is reporting slackening China sales and Tariff Man has not gone away. The ax is about to fall.
 
Old 01-30-2019, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,865 posts, read 9,532,948 times
Reputation: 15579
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
Yeah, that must be what is driving the DOW higher, all the pessimism.
Consumer sentiment dropped too.
People who know about markets will always tell you the bond market is 'smarter' than the stock market.
 
Old 01-30-2019, 02:29 PM
 
34,300 posts, read 15,649,302 times
Reputation: 13053
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
over 25K again. Don't get too excited. It won't last. The exuberance is the profit from the tax sugar high. Everyone is reporting slackening China sales and Tariff Man has not gone away. The ax is about to fall.
So the reports overall of good earnings is a downer for the politically motivated left.


Next quarter reporting will likely have some pull back but the China deal will play heavily on what happens. Good news and a better deal reached could lead to a new high too. No progress or a bad deal will send it looking for a bottom again.
Rest assured we are in good hands with Trump and our best meeting face to face with China's VP and their best. Thankfully Trump is the only President that has had the guts to seek a better deal and get China to the table.
 
Old 01-30-2019, 02:29 PM
 
2,362 posts, read 777,709 times
Reputation: 873
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
over 25K again. Don't get too excited. It won't last. The exuberance is the profit from the tax sugar high. Everyone is reporting slackening China sales and Tariff Man has not gone away. The ax is about to fall.
No the stock rallies today are due to a stronger than expected jobs creation reports from a select few giant blue chip tech companies.
 
Old 01-30-2019, 02:30 PM
 
2,362 posts, read 777,709 times
Reputation: 873
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
People who know about markets will always tell you the bond market is 'smarter' than the stock market.
I don't get what you mean 'smarter' please explain this to me, and use your own words.

Bond markets influence the stock markets, because higher yields on bonds tends to mean investors go there instead of the stock markets to invest.
 
Old 01-30-2019, 02:34 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,865 posts, read 9,532,948 times
Reputation: 15579
Quote:
Originally Posted by NomadicDrifter View Post
I don't get what you mean 'smarter' please explain this to me, and use your own words.

Bond markets influence the stock markets, because higher yields on bonds tends to mean investors go there instead of the stock markets to invest.
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...-stock-traders
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ticle35841389/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...er-than-stocks
 
Old 01-31-2019, 03:17 PM
 
34,300 posts, read 15,649,302 times
Reputation: 13053
Lets face it Jan. was very, very good !!! DOW up over 7%
Fed is in check. China trade talks positive !!!


https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/djia
 
Old 01-31-2019, 05:06 PM
 
12,017 posts, read 14,322,039 times
Reputation: 5981
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
Lets face it Jan. was very, very good !!! DOW up over 7%
Fed is in check. China trade talks positive !!!


https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/djia
Good time to sell
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