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Well, here we are nearly a year later and the gains in the market are barely 1% above what the OP was trumpeting those many months ago. This would be a failure to anyone being objective. To make it worse, Trump wants to blame Powell for it. Trump dumped Yellen and replaced her with Powell at the behest of the swamp rat, slimy bankers he listens to. He had no idea what he was doing. Now he's unhappy about it. And folks, you ain't seen nothing yet. Housing stocks are now at the lowest level since 2008. Remember what was happening in 2008? First goes housing, then goes the whole enchilada.
That is absolutely the truth! Money in the hands of middle and lower class people get spent....and then some. However, there is a big hole in the stimulus bucket in the form of the trade deficit. Creating more DEBT and putting it in the hands of consumers to spend more would be great if they were buying American produced goods. However, the trade deficit is such that much of what we consume is produced in other nations. Thus, a good part of our debt and stimulus actually leaks out to other countries in the form of increased revenue, which creates more production and opportunity in other nations. Look at how China is and has grown. We buy so many Chinese made goods if we keep increasing the debt to spend....China will be a bigger benefactor and we will just go deeper in debt while they control the dollar.
I, for one, don’t care about the Trade Deficit! The fact that it’s $300 billion w/China just means that we buy more from them than vice versa. It doesn’t mean that we send Xi a check for $300 billion and we get nothing in retur, We get iPhones, electronics etc.
I haven’t bought a PC, TV or any electronics device that was made in America in many years.
Did you hear the one about the guy who went into a super store to buy a TV, PC and iPhone?!
On the left hand side of the store are those products under a banner of “Made in U.S.A.” On the right hand side of the store are the exact identical products under a banner of “Made in China - 33% less expensive.”
Not many people buying “Made in U.S.A.” “Made in China - 33% less expensive” has a long queue of people w/money in hand.
F’ing Moron asked Tim Cook, Apple CEO, to “manufacture in America.” Cook’s response: “I could, but the iPhone would cost more than double.”
How many amongst us only buy American made goods??
We Americans get less expensive goods made in China due to labor costs in China. The lower cost for thes items lets me spend the savings on other products. It’s up to American companies to produce things at a competitive prices that I wanna buy.
It's like you claiming that Philadelphia has the tallest building in the world. It doesn't.
Trump is in last place among historians and scholars - you know, the same ones who measure skyscrapers. Would I listen to Trump when he says how high his building is, or would I want an engineer to measure it??
The Dow is doing terribly. Horribly. In the time frame since this thread was started. That is not able to be denied.
Now, if we want to ask who can make more Red Hat in China, I'll admit - Trump wins. But in terms of my measurements of how we are doing, 2018 sucks and the future looks worse. This great ZERO is the result of the tax cuts which generated some one-time gains. What is going to happen when those are done with (they are now)...the next quarter and year?
As other threads mention, Republicans are now claiming we have to cut benefits for seniors and the disabled and sick BECAUSE the revenues are not coming in to support their spending. Duh.
If I have to borrow more, move into a smaller house and then cannot get proper health care - I don't call that "positive". If my lifespan actually descreases as a result of these and other factors, that's not "the greatest".
These are simple issues.
On the other hand, Republicans have it exactly as they planned. Steal money from the country as a whole and give it to corporations and the rich. Buy off the little guy with Hate Issues. Then claim the government is broke and we have to cut cut cut.....
Handy, all of this is why I drink more....gotta go now - it’s scotch o’clock!
Well, here we are nearly a year later and the gains in the market are barely 1% above what the OP was trumpeting those many months ago. This would be a failure to anyone being objective. To make it worse, Trump wants to blame Powell for it. Trump dumped Yellen and replaced her with Powell at the behest of the swamp rat, slimy bankers he listens to. He had no idea what he was doing. Now he's unhappy about it. And folks, you ain't seen nothing yet. Housing stocks are now at the lowest level since 2008. Remember what was happening in 2008? First goes housing, then goes the whole enchilada.
Quote:
Originally Posted by handy99
The Dow is doing terribly. Horribly. In the time frame since this thread was started. That is not able to be denied.
As other threads mention, Republicans are now claiming we have to cut benefits for seniors and the disabled and sick BECAUSE the revenues are not coming in to support their spending. Duh.
On the other hand, Republicans have it exactly as they planned. Steal money from the country as a whole and give it to corporations and the rich. Buy off the little guy with Hate Issues. Then claim the government is broke and we have to cut cut cut.....
And, then there is this:
Quote:
Even as growth has accelerated, the Treasury reported that the 2018 deficit swelled to $779 billion. That level, the highest in six years, marks a 17 percent increase over 2017. Federal spending as a share of the economy fell.
But revenue fell even more, with corporate tax receipts plummeting 31 percent.
The Congressional Budget Office forecasts deficits hitting $981 billion in 2019 and exceeding $1 trillion every year after that.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, envisions growth ending up at 2.9 percent for 2018, 2.8 percent for 2019, and just .9 percent for 2020. Over the long run, major forecasters still see the economy on a path of 2 percent growth.
The Trade Deficit is not a big problem. It should be watched and many of the "talking points" issues need to be constantly monitored and solved - as many have been. These involve copyrights and things like that (IP), as well as abuse of our system.
Back to the DOW - who would have imagined it is LOWER by a decent margin than it was 10 months ago? That's almost a year.
As it stands, especially considering the backdrop, it's not only "not great". It's terrible. I've taken to not looking at my retirement portfolio because the amount I'm "not making" would probably be shocking.
Well, I just looked - not really too bad. I'm up about 7% YTD combined which is only about 30% lower (for same time periods) than what I did under Obama in the last term.
I wish I could say I have a 7% gain - I don't. Right now it's about 2% on invested assets - pretty damn lousy.
Carter Worth - today- says lower by year-end. Carter is always worth a listen.
For the know-nothings and whack-a-mole moonbots on this thread who don't read and insist on repeating the same false and illogical claptrap, Carter called the crash in early 2008 - a market decline with no bottom on sight. I listened to him then, pulled all my money out and watched the 2008/09 debacle from the sidelines.
He also said today we'd have to be perfect to say where we are right now - essentially a lousy result for the year. But, he thinks it will get worse. He's too polite and to say why - but, of course, it's deficits, tariffs, and economic slowdown - beginning with housing and autos.
CEO confidence today is also lower because of tariffs and interest rates. I read somewhere an anatomy of October 2007 - eerily similar to today. The similarities in some areas are worrisome enough that I'm pulling out. I think this could very well be Oct. 2007 redux. Trump gives me zero confidence - and great fear. He destroys whatever he touches.
On top of that, we have soaring deficits.
And, then, Kudlow says Chinese are being intractable - so that issue won't be resolved anytime soon.
Trump Admin has certainly written the playbook on how to ruin what never was broke.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 10-22-2018 at 06:06 PM..
President Trump is absolutely the greatest on the economy. Dow breaks 25,000
They say it still has room to run !!!!
Go ahead 401K make my day !!!
Yeah, DOW breaks 25,000 - ON THE WAY DOWN.
As of THIS MOMENT, the DOW sits at 24,932.25
Seems like your entire gain since your post has been lost (largely due to Trump;s tariffs). Pretty much the entire years' gain - WIPED OUT.
Don't know for sure how the day will end up, but as of this moment, the DOW is back below 25,000.
"Caterpillar shares dive 9% after industrial giant says material costs are rising because of tariffs
Shares of Caterpillar sank 9 percent after the heavy machinery maker gave disappointing 2018 guidance and management pointed out costs were rising because of tariffs...."
This is how tops begin. If you look at stock market charts for, say, around 2000, or 2007, you see the markets spent almost a whole year forming a top before crashing. Even for the mini-crash in 2011, the stock market spent several months forming a top prior to the August mini-crash. What we've seen so far this year could very well be the left shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern. If so, there will be a recovery, and possibly a new high, before stalling out once again and tumbling. After that, the right shoulder would form, and then would come the crash (or at least, mini-crash as in 2011).
Studying stock market patterns is very interesting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007
It is now 7-8 months after I posted these two posts. So far, so good. And the late Sept high on the S&P 500 would be the head. Next would come the right shoulder.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007
With a copied and pasted print screen from Yahoo finance, this is my wild guess as to how the rest of the pattern will play out.
Didn't notice this call from Morgan Stanley last month. Would seem they agree with my thesis:
U.S. stocks are already in the throes of a rolling bear market and could be paralyzed for the next several years as earnings growth decelerates, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist, Michael Wilson, said in a note.
Wilson said he expects the S&P 500 to trade in range between 2,400 and 3,000 for the next several years as higher borrowing costs replace strong earnings as the market's primary focus.
[...]
"We think this 'rolling bear market' has already begun with peak valuations in December and peak sentiment in January," Wilson told clients.
This is the down leg I have been talking about and waiting for. Will it close below 25,000 and continue to drop tomorrow ? Large gap down today and almost all gaps get filled at some point. Sometimes quickly and sometimes it takes months.
With the election so close I'll continue to exercise patience. If the Dems take control of the house the upside potential will be extremely limited as their policies will definitely hinder growth and bring more chaos and weakness to the economy and markets.
Geopolitical concerns still a big question of uncertainty. World growth in question. Many countries have weak economies and China could lead them in more weakness.
Politically the left will abandon the idea its Obama's economy still.
China's leaders tried to jawbone their market but failed in the face of reality.
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