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This is how tops begin. If you look at stock market charts for, say, around 2000, or 2007, you see the markets spent almost a whole year forming a top before crashing. Even for the mini-crash in 2011, the stock market spent several months forming a top prior to the August mini-crash. What we've seen so far this year could very well be the left shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern. If so, there will be a recovery, and possibly a new high, before stalling out once again and tumbling. After that, the right shoulder would form, and then would come the crash (or at least, mini-crash as in 2011).
Studying stock market patterns is very interesting.
I hate to say I told you so, but my prediction a year ago that the bull market would end on May 10, 2019 at 4:00 PM is starting to look pretty good. If I am right, the charts for the S&P 500 (SPY) are setting up a long-term classic head and shoulders top. The left shoulder was created by the January 2018 rally to $282.
We just saw the head created at the beginning of October at $293. All that remains is to build the right shoulder back up to $282 by the spring. What will then follow is the crying.
This is the first year in a long time (maybe 8 years or more) where some of my major accounts are NOT up.....a big fat nothing. That somewhat ties in with both the DOW and some of the FANGs and Biotechs, let alone the sinking of bond and mixed funds as interest rates head up.
Anyone who claims 2018 is a great year for the market in general is smoking something which is now legal in MA.
I'll eat my words if we see 28K DOW by Jan.
Personally, I preferred the steady hand of Obama and crew. With Trump we hear one day that China is "making a deal", then they next day that nothing at all happened. We hear that peace and decency are coming to N. Korea immediately - along with nuclear disarmament.
We hear about how the trade deficit will come down - because 2 years in, all those Trump manufacturing jobs MUST mean more exports and more made here, right?
We hear about tariffs - most of which never happen but spook manufacturers and planners.
"A steady hand on the tiller" comes to mind. We have a crazy man who doesn't know the first thing about sailing (or economics).
What happened: Almost every major service industry expanded in October. The only one to show a decline was education, but it was tied to the start of school in the fall.
Big picture: As the latest ISM survey shows, the U.S. is still performing at a high level and a good holiday season looks to be in the offing. “Business has been strong,” said an executive at a retailer. “Continuing momentum seen in past month. Anticipating continued strong sales through remainder of the year.”
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