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Old 12-04-2018, 08:20 AM
 
Location: alexandria, VA
16,352 posts, read 8,092,773 times
Reputation: 9726

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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, may I have your attention please....

It has begun!!!

Key yield curve hits flattest in 11 years; 3-year and 5-year note invert for first time since 2007

Thank you, and have a nice day.
Inverted yield curve. Not a good sign.

 
Old 12-04-2018, 08:28 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,670,317 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by cremebrulee View Post
Since Trump has been president, my 401(k) has been doing very well compared to when other presidents were in, from both sides...and of that, I'm pleased.

Money talks....and money is Trumps strong point, plus trying to do what is fair....
.
Ok, let's go through the points one by one.

I am extremely diversified - given stocks, bonds, etfs and mutual funds I probably own 1,000 or more different instruments - plus Real Estate.

It is unfair to credit the first year of a POTUS reign to them...because everything in this world works on momentum. Look how long it took GWB to sink the ship....you would be crowing how great things were in 2005, right???

Crediting Trump with 2017 is like crediting him with his claim this week of having "already rebuilt the military" (2017 Budget was set in Stone before he took office). Or it's like saying he is responsible for low unemployment (please - look at the charts and numbers).....

2018 is a more honest reflection of the actual policies he is yapping about or implementing. The tax cut that didn't work, increased deficits, trade wars, etc.
To that we can add increased inflation and higher interest rates, which does not help "total returns after inflation".

See these numbers?
+7.94% +11.94% +12.08%

In order, they are 1 year, 3 year and 5 year returns...for my accounts.

Now, what do they tell us? Well, the 5 year and the 3 year are higher than the one year, right? According to you they can't be......

Now, let's talk about the "businessman". Surely you know that if Trump took his inheritance and invested it in the S&P, it would be worth many times what he is worth. If he invested it with Buffets fund, he'd be worth over 100 BILLION dollars. Yet he took his worth down to zero (until the russians finally bailed him out). Even if we call the Russian money "legal", it would make his total return over his lifetime in the low single digits. Terrible. Business is about Return on Investment. Therefore, a business person is measure by their return. Summary - Trump is a very poor business person - any way you measure it.

The problem with the USA and with you and I is that the Russians cannot bail us out. The Stock Market is worth a lot more than their entire Oligarchy. They can buy Trump easily, but not you and I.
 
Old 12-04-2018, 08:30 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,670,317 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
There's always the old mattress strategy.
Dangerous....you forget where it is, the house burns down, etc......
 
Old 12-04-2018, 08:33 AM
 
34,300 posts, read 15,646,770 times
Reputation: 13053
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Dangerous....you forget where it is, the house burns down, etc......
Russian hookers pee on it. To wet to burn. It smolders like Trump hatred but no fire.

Russia is a distraction and China is the real problem. Clinton, Bush, Obama, never set at the table with China to solve the problems of factories and jobs we exported to China. Middleclass devastation and no one did anything until Trump gets elected.
 
Old 12-04-2018, 08:35 AM
 
Location: Middle of the valley
48,519 posts, read 34,833,342 times
Reputation: 73739
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, may I have your attention please....

It has begun!!!

Key yield curve hits flattest in 11 years; 3-year and 5-year note invert for first time since 2007

Thank you, and have a nice day.
Yep. Can't say it hasn't been an interesting year....
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Old 12-04-2018, 08:37 AM
 
Location: alexandria, VA
16,352 posts, read 8,092,773 times
Reputation: 9726
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Ok, let's go through the points one by one.

I am extremely diversified - given stocks, bonds, etfs and mutual funds I probably own 1,000 or more different instruments - plus Real Estate.

It is unfair to credit the first year of a POTUS reign to them...because everything in this world works on momentum. Look how long it took GWB to sink the ship....you would be crowing how great things were in 2005, right???

Crediting Trump with 2017 is like crediting him with his claim this week of having "already rebuilt the military" (2017 Budget was set in Stone before he took office). Or it's like saying he is responsible for low unemployment (please - look at the charts and numbers).....

2018 is a more honest reflection of the actual policies he is yapping about or implementing. The tax cut that didn't work, increased deficits, trade wars, etc.
To that we can add increased inflation and higher interest rates, which does not help "total returns after inflation".

See these numbers?
+7.94% +11.94% +12.08%

In order, they are 1 year, 3 year and 5 year returns...for my accounts.

Now, what do they tell us? Well, the 5 year and the 3 year are higher than the one year, right? According to you they can't be......

Now, let's talk about the "businessman". Surely you know that if Trump took his inheritance and invested it in the S&P, it would be worth many times what he is worth. If he invested it with Buffets fund, he'd be worth over 100 BILLION dollars. Yet he took his worth down to zero (until the russians finally bailed him out). Even if we call the Russian money "legal", it would make his total return over his lifetime in the low single digits. Terrible. Business is about Return on Investment. Therefore, a business person is measure by their return. Summary - Trump is a very poor business person - any way you measure it.

The problem with the USA and with you and I is that the Russians cannot bail us out. The Stock Market is worth a lot more than their entire Oligarchy. They can buy Trump easily, but not you and I.
Good post. But you're wasting your time trying to explain anything about investing to Trumpies. Let them put their money where their mouths are and put everything they have into the stock market thinking that the genius of Trump will guarantee 20% returns forever. Those of us who are cutting back on stocks will be glad to take their money.
 
Old 12-04-2018, 08:42 AM
 
Location: NYC
1,040 posts, read 1,262,648 times
Reputation: 814
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Ok, let's go through the points one by one.

I am extremely diversified - given stocks, bonds, etfs and mutual funds I probably own 1,000 or more different instruments - plus Real Estate.

It is unfair to credit the first year of a POTUS reign to them...because everything in this world works on momentum. Look how long it took GWB to sink the ship....you would be crowing how great things were in 2005, right???

Crediting Trump with 2017 is like crediting him with his claim this week of having "already rebuilt the military" (2017 Budget was set in Stone before he took office). Or it's like saying he is responsible for low unemployment (please - look at the charts and numbers).....

2018 is a more honest reflection of the actual policies he is yapping about or implementing. The tax cut that didn't work, increased deficits, trade wars, etc.
To that we can add increased inflation and higher interest rates, which does not help "total returns after inflation".

See these numbers?
+7.94% +11.94% +12.08%

In order, they are 1 year, 3 year and 5 year returns...for my accounts.

Now, what do they tell us? Well, the 5 year and the 3 year are higher than the one year, right? According to you they can't be......

Now, let's talk about the "businessman". Surely you know that if Trump took his inheritance and invested it in the S&P, it would be worth many times what he is worth. If he invested it with Buffets fund, he'd be worth over 100 BILLION dollars. Yet he took his worth down to zero (until the russians finally bailed him out). Even if we call the Russian money "legal", it would make his total return over his lifetime in the low single digits. Terrible. Business is about Return on Investment. Therefore, a business person is measure by their return. Summary - Trump is a very poor business person - any way you measure it.

The problem with the USA and with you and I is that the Russians cannot bail us out. The Stock Market is worth a lot more than their entire Oligarchy. They can buy Trump easily, but not you and I.
Wow amazing if I could double rep..
 
Old 12-04-2018, 08:55 AM
 
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
28,892 posts, read 30,262,451 times
Reputation: 19092
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruready4Bklyn View Post
I stopped reading somewhere when you said my 401K is doing well because of Trump compared to other presidents or something, almost spilled my coffee couldn't die laughing....post fail...
well spill away all you want, but I've been watching it very very closely now and have been during the past 5 years, and it's actually been doing better, than when Obama was President.....

so believe what you want...but the fact is, it is and has been doing much better.

Much of that increase, however, was fueled by gains in the stock market. Americans saw the value of their equity holdings which includes investments in stocks, mutual funds and retirement accounts -- soar to $29.4 trillion in the first quarter of this year. That's up 8.1% from the same period in 2017.
 
Old 12-04-2018, 09:07 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,864 posts, read 9,529,660 times
Reputation: 15578
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
He kept Crooked Hillary out of the WH, everything after that is gravy.
The voice from the losers in the collective with the same old message doesn't inspire me to join them.
We will see who the eventual losers will be. See post 2888 for a hint. Within a couple years you will have wished Hillary had won, since the next recession will be blamed on Trump.
 
Old 12-04-2018, 09:32 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,864 posts, read 9,529,660 times
Reputation: 15578
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, may I have your attention please....

It has begun!!!

Key yield curve hits flattest in 11 years; 3-year and 5-year note invert for first time since 2007

Thank you, and have a nice day.
The same bond market move happening now occurred before the last three recessions
Quote:
In the Treasury market, shorter-term interest rates this week started to move above some longer-term rates.

That can be an early warning sign for a recession, as it was in 1990, 2001 and 2007, according to a study by Bespoke. Bespoke said that kind of bond market move may indicate that some of the more widely watched spreads could also soon flip, or invert, a precursor to a recession.

The 3-year Treasury yield Monday moved above the 5-year yield, and it was soon followed by the 2-year. The market most closely watches the spread between the 2-year and 10-year, as well as 3-month to 10-year spread, which is the one preferred by the Fed.
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