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If you look at Maryland's districts, your post is pretty much correct except that you'll need to change "GOP" to "Democrats". Maryland's gerrymandering is just as bad, only it benefits Democrats.
It's not a GOP issue, nor is it a Democrat issue; it's an issue of fairness to the citizens. Until they take the drawing of the districts out of the politicians' hands, it will never be fair.
Without gerrymandering - we would have more moderate representation, I believe and less 'lifetime' appointments which would be good for all.
There would be 3-4 seats in which the Democrats would have a good shot of picking up in any consensus map or court drawn one (if a consensus map can't be drawn). All of these seats are ones the Democrats are already/ or likely will target anyway, but would certainly become easier with any type of redrawn map.
The 7th which is what I showed it an earlier post would be the most endangered district (already likely is with Meehan's problems) as it would be primarily focused in Delaware County. If anything I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP secedes the 7th all together in order to lessen the risk of some of the surrounding districts, although I'm not sure if the Dems or the Courts would go for that.
The 6th would likely be considerably tougher for the GOP as it would likely be more focused in Chester (and lose the tentacles reaching all the way out to Lebanon County)
The 8th district could become a bit tougher as well. This is primarily a Bucks County district, and is fairly compact. However, the GOP was very careful of which portions of Montgomery County to put into the 8th. More compact districts within Montgomery could change where the non-Bucks portion of the district comes from, which could make this interesting.
The 15th is another that becomes more interesting. This is an Open seat as Dent is retiring. It is currently a GOP leaning district that the Dems are targeting. Any compact drawn 15th likely puts Reading into the district likely at the expense of the heavily GOP portions of Dauphin and Lebanon Counties that are currently in the district and drawn into the district last time to make it a safer seat
The 17th district is also worth watching, as it was drawn to concentrate Democrats in both the Allentown/Bethlehem and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre areas away from other districts - but it actually voted pretty strongly for Trump in 2016. It may make more sense to have one Allentown based district and one Scranton based district, that are both competitive and cannot be taken for granted by either party.
Suburban Pittsburgh could also see some reconfigurations. The 12th district has a very incoherent shape and if it receives more Democratic voters from the now ultra-blue 14th, would become far more competitive.
Your guesses sound reasonable, and I agree that Democrats gerrymandered Illinois and Maryland, but Republicans did so in far more states this decade. What do you think about Texas? It is ridiculous that the Austin area is split into several districts that are based in distant parts of the state.
I avoided TX and CA because they are So red and blue respectively.
I believe there should be set perimeter/area laws and laws against bridging.
They may win this, the big issue here is they have very little time to redraw them and the Democratic governor can simply veto it which would set into motion the courts drawing them upsurping the Legislative branches power.
Claiming that the time limit is too short might be a valid reason.
The Congressional lines in NY aren't gerrymanders and were court drawn
After the court order NY went to a bipartisan election commission for the state level districts, not sure about federal districts. We really need a commission that is completely independent of both parties since politicians could trade districts to keep their own in power but its a step in the right direction. Arizona has a truly independent commission.
After the court order NY went to a bipartisan election commission for the state level districts, not sure about federal districts. We really need a commission that is completely independent of both parties since politicians could trade districts to keep their own in power but its a step in the right direction. Arizona has a truly independent commission.
There was an agreement to go to an Independent Commission prior to the 2010 elections, however when the GOP took back the State Senate they backed away from the agreement. NY for decades had a Democratic Gerrymander in the Assembly and GOP Gerrymandet in the State Senate with a compromise Congressional map.
After 2010 the State Senate remained a GOP gerrymander and Assembly remained a Democratic one, but no compromise map was agreed upon. Going forward a bipartisan commission will draw all three. Far from perfect, but certainly better than what we have had.
I cannot believe that, in this day and age, there isn't a simple computer program that can draw the maps using population and natural boundaries to draw up the districts. Use populations only without any data input in regards to voter registration.
I cannot believe that, in this day and age, there isn't a simple computer program that can draw the maps using population and natural boundaries to draw up the districts. Use populations only without any data input in regards to voter registration.
Not as easy as it sounds. Districts are arbitrary and nothing whether natural or geographic gives you hints that's where the districts should be.
What it's supposed to do is provide representation to what the voters want (in a similar proportion) and send that representation to Congress.
AZ's House delegation is 5 (R) - 4 (D), which generally aligns with the states views (center-right). PA for example, clearly does not with a delegation of 13 (R) - 5 (D) it's laughable that this ultra partisan map is even possible. The voters of PA do not vote 72% - 28% GOP. Obviously.
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