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Thus far, the economy has been the only thing Trump has had going for him. Now that is starting to show some serious cracks. If we go into recession, which is starting to look more and more likely, what will Trump supporters have to cling to? This one is also likely to be a doozy (worse than 2008) because the federal government doesn't have the ammunition to respond to it. Rates are still too low and spending is too high. During expansionary periods, its important to prepare for the next downturn and we have not done that.
One thing is certain; if we go into recession that will end Trump's chances of a second term.
I don't know, the global economy is getting better, so if there will be a recession, I think it will be minor compared to the past.
But like I said to Trump's fans in other threads "don't get so excited about recent stock market surges!".
Trump is salesman, he is selling his image to the public. Anything that doesn't fit with his brand, he will easily disown, ignore or call fake. We will see which option he chooses this time around.
Thus far, the economy has been the only thing Trump has had going for him. Now that is starting to show some serious cracks. If we go into recession, which is starting to look more and more likely, what will Trump supporters have to cling to? This one is also likely to be a doozy (worse than 2008) because the federal government doesn't have the ammunition to respond to it. Rates are still too low and spending is too high. During expansionary periods, its important to prepare for the next downturn and we have not done that.
One thing is certain; if we go into recession that will end Trump's chances of a second term.
A month or two ago I linked to an article by a political analyst (Bruce Bartlett) whom pointed out that the voting public tends to blame the party in power for any current economic downturn.
Mr. Bartlett opined that the Tax Reform Act would cause a recession; but not immediately.
He said that the Republicans were thinking long-term: that they expect to lose the House in November 2018, and then the Senate, and probably the Presidency, in 2020.
Yet, they (R's) are banking on the recession (or, inflation) occurring after 2020. The Republicans will then blame the Democrats for the recession/inflation, and so regain Congress in 2022, and the Presidency in 2024.
Mr. Bartlett (a Republican, although a 'never-Trumper') expressed some admiration for the Republicans thinking in the long term.
Uh, we are ovedo for a recession. We never had one under Obama because there was no robust growth to recess from.
An economics lesson--recessions are good because they force the economy to re-organize a bit. The economy usually snaps back like a rubber band. They become very bad when idiotic liberals use them as an excuse to pass social engieering legislation that retards growth.
You want a little boom and bust in the economy. The alterntive is flatlining.
Trump will be fine. He is going to be your president for the next seven years, so you should probably get used to it.
Well, there was always going to be short term pain when interest rates go back up, and they need to. And as far back as 2009, the central bank for all the central banks has been telling all the central banks (ours included) to pop as many of the bubbles as possible because things will get haywire on the global scale if they do not.
This will likely cause a minor recession, but if the government is showing both friendliness and predictability to business, any recession will be short lived. If they take the more hands-off approach used by Trump so far (and really, used a great deal under the Clinton admin as well), any recession should have that rubber band elasticity someone else already mentioned.
Given Trump's behaviors on economics in the first 13 months of his admin, I'd say things will be fine.
Only thing I could legitimately pin on Obama himself would be perpetuating a narrative that was both unpredictable and unfriendly to business. Now making a narrative doesn't make law, nor does it enforce policy, but it does color whatever the Congress and the rest of the faceless thugocracy are up to, and that makes The Street nervous and cautious. When The Street gets nervous and cautious, the economy is less elastic and recessions and slow growth trends last longer.
But even that is simply him confirming what the Congress and the thugocracy are doing, not so much him directly doing anything. Trump is simply echoing a more pro-business rhetorical narrative, and his Congress and thugocracy are being more friendly and predictable than they were under Obama.
It's about all a POTUS can really do. The Street is very happy about the slashing of regulation, renegotiating or tearing up bad deals, and all the tangible action that are the brick mortar of the new business narrative under Trump. The President himself is simply the coat of paint and curb appeal of that particular construct.
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