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Old 02-08-2018, 11:14 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
29,218 posts, read 22,365,741 times
Reputation: 23858

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
He appointed Yellen who kept interest rates way too low and overheated the market. Blame falls on Obama for the appointment. Thank God Trump has the sense to get rid of her.

The only thing worth debating is whether Obama/Yellen did this intentionally when rates obviously needed to be raised more this past year.

If we had a wiser Fed Chair, this would never have happened.
What crash?
The stock market does not only just go up, you know. It goes up and down. After 7 years of nothing but upward rise, it was way overdue for a downturn.

And when it came, there was no crash. It went right back up again as soon as the bottom fell out for an hour or two. People sold to cash out on the long rise, and others jumped in to buy at a low price. That's normal.

Even the speed of the drop and rise is the new normal. Computers rule the industry, using analytics to automatically sell or buy when certain things happen, and they do their job far faster than a human can. Machines don't care what they're doing, so when they are tripped to sell, they sell so fast a stock plunges. And when they're tripped to buy, they buy just as fast.

The old days of humans on the floor of the exchange, yelling out orders and scribbling them down frantically is more for show than go now. All the real action is computerized.

The bouncing around isn't going to end for a while. The bond industry has to have some inflation happening to make it attractive to investment, as they need to offer investors more return percentage than is possible to do right now. Bonds make the wheels of the economy spin just as much as stocks, and it's a sector that has been flat too long.

So expect to see some inflation this year. It will be a good time to go buy some short-term CDs at your bank if you want to invest a little, or to look at some bonds if you want to invest more money. Inflation means you will get more money back on your dollar when the CDs mature than you would right now.
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Old 02-09-2018, 06:39 AM
 
Location: Long Island
57,286 posts, read 26,206,502 times
Reputation: 15645
Quote:
Originally Posted by okcthunder1945 View Post
Not a panic. But I do worry about this as China has a massive debt issue that could certainly cause a crash. There was a lot of debt created that will start getting more and more expensive globally.
China makes the US look like fiscal conservatives.
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Old 02-09-2018, 06:58 AM
 
26,497 posts, read 15,074,947 times
Reputation: 14644
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight View Post
Yes and of course you gave Yelllen credit for record market returns before the record losses
You can't comprehend a scenario where the stock market gets inflated up in a bubble and then pops - therefore the rise and fall are linked? Do you not know much about economics or are you making a hyper-partisan point?




You weren't talking to me, but I've been very clear for years.

Bernanke and Yellen instituted QE trickle down economics, which took a stock market that was undervalued (using both p/e and shiller p/e ratios) on Obama's first day and made it highly overvalued on Obama's last day.

Revenue didn't grow that much for most companies, profits were made more from automation, cutting back workers, etc...

Had Hillary won, the stock market would have been overvalued on day 1 for her, just as it was for Trump.

It is bound to come down sooner or later as is the history of the stock market - ESPECIALLY when it is overvalued.


Even with the recent drop, the shiller p/e ratio of the stock market is still more over valued than it was the day before Black Tuesday in October of 1929.

Shiller PE Ratio
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:00 AM
 
Location: alexandria, VA
16,352 posts, read 8,095,474 times
Reputation: 9726
Simple explanation. Long bull market. Over valued and overdue for a correction. Now with full employment, strong economy, and the prospect of inflation and higher interest rates investors wisely taking money out of stocks. Market drops. But the Trumpies blame it on the so called "deep state", the fed, even Obama for christ sake. Life is tough. It's even tougher when you're stupid.

Last edited by r small; 02-09-2018 at 07:17 AM..
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:05 AM
 
4,288 posts, read 2,059,632 times
Reputation: 2815
Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
He appointed Yellen who kept interest rates way too low and overheated the market. Blame falls on Obama for the appointment. Thank God Trump has the sense to get rid of her.

The only thing worth debating is whether Obama/Yellen did this intentionally when rates obviously needed to be raised more this past year.

If we had a wiser Fed Chair, this would never have happened.
What would have never happened? The market would not have increased so much?
I guess things would be better if the market was at 15,000.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:08 AM
 
11,404 posts, read 4,085,616 times
Reputation: 7852
All we heard a few weeks ago was how much better of a job Trump is doing than Obama in relation to the stock market. Today, it is now all Obama's fault for the historic losses. So which is it?

I hate to see people ruin their own credibility by making up lies just to defend their guy. It isn't a good look. Just be honest. I can imagine it must be difficult trying to defend POTUS Trump on a daily basis, but please don't lose your dignity over it.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:56 AM
 
2,295 posts, read 2,369,154 times
Reputation: 2668
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeutralParty View Post
All we heard a few weeks ago was how much better of a job Trump is doing than Obama in relation to the stock market. Today, it is now all Obama's fault for the historic losses. So which is it?

I hate to see people ruin their own credibility by making up lies just to defend their guy. It isn't a good look. Just be honest. I can imagine it must be difficult trying to defend POTUS Trump on a daily basis, but please don't lose your dignity over it.
And all we heard through the entire 8 years of the previous administration was that any bad financial news was the fault of the Bush administration, and any good economic news was Obama's doing.

It must be difficult to be a blind partisan of either party that can just ignore either party doing the same things.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:59 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,566 posts, read 28,665,617 times
Reputation: 25155
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeutralParty View Post
All we heard a few weeks ago was how much better of a job Trump is doing than Obama in relation to the stock market. Today, it is now all Obama's fault for the historic losses. So which is it?
It is not anybody's fault. We are simply in a market correction, the most likely cause of which is fear of higher interest rates due to a stronger economy.

Generally, when interest rates go up, the stock market goes down.
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:02 AM
 
11,404 posts, read 4,085,616 times
Reputation: 7852
Quote:
Originally Posted by TXStrat View Post
And all we heard through the entire 8 years of the previous administration was that any bad financial news was the fault of the Bush administration, and any good economic news was Obama's doing.

It must be difficult to be a blind partisan of either party that can just ignore either party doing the same things.
I hate Obama. I don't hate Trump, but I'm not a huge fan of him either.

Neither one of them directly had much impact on the stock market.
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:06 AM
 
30,166 posts, read 11,795,579 times
Reputation: 18687
Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
He appointed Yellen who kept interest rates way too low and overheated the market. Blame falls on Obama for the appointment. Thank God Trump has the sense to get rid of her.

The only thing worth debating is whether Obama/Yellen did this intentionally when rates obviously needed to be raised more this past year.

If we had a wiser Fed Chair, this would never have happened.
If the fed had any idea of what they are doing we would not have had the great depression, great recession or years of too low interest rates we are now dealing with which will eventually trigger another great depression or great recession.
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