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Old 03-01-2018, 06:47 PM
 
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So says Jonathan Chait after reviewing the latest generational survey by Pew Research, which was released today.

Quote:
For obvious reasons, the broadly liberal demographic trends in American politics have received much less attention since the 2016 election. Yet the fact remains that America is politically sorted by generations in a way it never has before. The oldest voters are the most conservative, white, and Republican, and the youngest voters the most liberal, racially diverse, and Democratic. There is absolutely no sign the dynamic is abating during the Trump years. If anything, it is accelerating.

It is hard to focus on this trend at a moment when Republicans have full control of government, and are heading into an election where gerrymandering gives them a large advantage in maintaining Congress. But this fact runs headlong against a much longer deterioration of the conservative position within the electorate. Many conservatives supported Trump precisely because they were panicked about this trend. So far, Trump is merely accelerating the demise they feared.In the long run, as John Maynard Keynes quipped, “We are all dead.” But over the long run, the Republicans are especially dead.
New Survey: Young Staying Liberal, Conservatives Dying Off

The most recent Pew Research Survey has more detail about the generational divide. It shows that the old saw that young people would naturally grow more conservative as they age, or that their Democratic loyalties were an idiosyncratic response to Barack Obama’s unique personal appeal, has not held. Younger voters have distinctly more liberal views than older voters:

Pew survey: Party ID by Generation:

Rather than growing more conservative as they grow older, millennials as a group are becoming more liberal.

Quote:
”Millennial voters have generally favored Democrats in midterms, and that trend continues. But, comparing early preferences this year with surveys conducted in previous midterm years, Millennial registered voters support the Democrat by a wider margin than in the past.
Gen Xers are basically holding steady in partisanship. In 2014, GenXers favored Democrats by 9%; at this point in 2017 they are D+10.

On Trump Job Approval by Generation, Trump is underwater by 38%; Gen Xers by -21%; Boomers by -7%; Silents by -2%; overall -20 (37% approve with 57% disapprove)

Silent Generation (age 73 to 90) (11% of adult pop; 79% n/h white)
43% Democrat/57% Republican

Boomer Generation (age 54 to 72): 29% of adult pop; 72% n/h white
48% Democrat/46% Republican
Gen X (age 38 to 53 ): 26% of adult pop; 62% n/h white
48% Democrat/43% Republican

Millennials (age 22 to 37): 28% of adult pop; 56% n/h white
59% Democrat/32% Republican

Post-Millennials (age 18-21) 5% of adult pop; 53% n/h white

Generic 2018 Party Preference by Generation:

Silents: Democrats 45%/Republicans 51%
Boomers: Democrats 48%/Republicans 45-
Gen Xers: Democrats 51%/Republicans 41%
Millennials: Democrats 62%/Republicans 29%

By generation; % agreeing that “racial discrimination is the main reason many blacks cannot get ahead”:

Silents: 28%
Boomers: 36%
GenXers: 40%
Millennials: 52%

% saying that “immigration strengthens America”:

Silents: 47%
Boomers: 56%
Gen Xers: 66%
Millennials: 79%

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/...ican-politics/

Regarding the early indications of the leanings of post- millennials, a PRRI survey at the time of the 2016 election showed that among respondents aged 15 to 24 years of age, 57% favored the election of Hillary Clinton. At the same time, the annual ci election by Scholastic Magazine of school children favored Clinton over Trump by 52% to 35%. In contrast to conservative beliefs, the post-millennial generation’s political orientation is still forming, since the lion ‘s share of that generation have not yet reached their political formative years or young adulthood, but the oldest members of that generation who have reached adulthood have shown no such sharp break with millennials.

Linked is a short podcast by Bill Frey of Brookings discussing the above.

https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-ep...nguage_slug=en

Last edited by Bureaucat; 03-01-2018 at 07:11 PM..
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Old 03-01-2018, 06:50 PM
 
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This is important because despite the assumption by many that people turn conservative as they age, the reality is that most (but not all) folks keep their particular leanings throughout their life.
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Old 03-01-2018, 06:51 PM
 
Location: New Brunswick
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You can tell this by certain conservative's desperate hopes that the voting age will be raised to 21.
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Old 03-01-2018, 06:52 PM
 
Location: Houston
22,392 posts, read 11,530,756 times
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How did Trump win?��
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Old 03-01-2018, 06:54 PM
 
Location: New Brunswick
2,264 posts, read 1,585,790 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whogo View Post
How did Trump win?��
Trump won due to a voting block that will 4 years older in the next election. And in 8 years time, they will be 8 years older.

Ya I know getting older sucks. Especially for Trump.....
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Old 03-01-2018, 06:56 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whogo View Post
How did Trump win?��
He barely won the electoral college in 3 key states by less than 1%.
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Old 03-01-2018, 06:57 PM
 
26,302 posts, read 12,782,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whogo View Post
How did Trump win?��
he lost the popular vote by more then any president in history. He won by focusing on the electoral states better then Clinton did, and he won those by a mere 80,000 votes.

This is unlikely to be repeated.
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Old 03-01-2018, 07:04 PM
 
6,933 posts, read 2,473,969 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
This is important because despite the assumption by many that people turn conservative as they age, the reality is that most (but not all) folks keep their particular leanings throughout their life.
True. The general consensus of the studies that I have read is that while individuals may grow more conservative as they grow older, the vast majority of people are shaped by the politics when they reach adulthood and retain that identity for life.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...ting-behavior/

Last edited by Bureaucat; 03-01-2018 at 07:19 PM..
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Old 03-01-2018, 07:04 PM
 
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Looking at the data...50% of voters are over 50. And trump maintained a pretty healthy margin in the older folks.

On a morbid note....I suspect you could estimate whether Trump would win today or not by looking at population distributions and actuarial tables. Assuming that only the dead were pulled out I suspect by now enough of his supporters have died that he might not.

Or maybe he would. the distributions of people and their ages needs be more granular to actually know.
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Old 03-01-2018, 07:04 PM
 
2,186 posts, read 2,098,909 times
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What's with Lefties and polls? The broken-record repetition of them being wrong and they still believe, have to give them credit.
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