Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
We have a triple whammy, two of which could have been absorbed for a while yet (not permanently) - tax reform causing ballooning deficits and Fed's plan to continue to increase interest rates.
Addition of the third - tariffs - with all their perverse consequences including but not limited to rising prices for raw materials, inflation, reduced trade, business retraction due to rising prices and fewer sales, postponement of expansion plans - leading to slowdowns - has accelerated market worries and put the skids on the market.
We will have a recovery - of sorts - but no strong bull market going forward, imo.
Too many worries. Tariffs put the nail in the coffin, of that there is no doubt - except among those living in an alternate facts universe.
The market, however, does not deal in alternate facts, fairy tales, lies, or magical thinking.
Last I looked at my portfolio, the entire year's gains have been wiped out - right back to year-end valuation. If there's more selling tomorrow, of course, it gets worse..
Last edited by Ariadne22; 10-10-2018 at 11:27 PM..
the markets tend to fall this time of year regularly. the dow is still over 25,500 though, UP from when trump took office. remember that oct ends the extensions that people and businesses can file to pay their taxes, so of course stocks are going to be sold off to pay those taxes.
That is not how it works. Traders were spooked by the fed. Rising interest rates hurt stocks. The fed needs to have the tool of lowering interest rates during economic downturns. I am fine with rates rising.
Market could have handled rising rates had there been no tariff overhang and resultant signs of business pullback. Auto sales down, home prices stagnant or falling in some areas .... this is the beginning of the pullback. The sugar/fake high from that irresponsible fake tax cut stimulus - and business UNFRIENDLY tariffs - only make the correction worse. Both have put us on an accelerated path to a downturn.
We would be much better off and far more stable had there been no tax reform and no tariffs. Fed would be less aggressive raising rates because the economy would not have been artificially stimulated.
We've heard this before. The Second Great Depression has not yet landed and we're continuing to experience unprecedented good highs (DOW and growth) and good lows (unemployment). Why is there so much enthusiasm for having the economy collapse?? Is it really that important?? Can't you shriek at Trump for something else?? The guy is a loudmouthed imbecile half the time, you don't have to search for long to find something else to criticize.
You should ask a moderator to correct your thread title, as the Fed increasing interest rates is the reason for investors worrying.
Its what happens when the economy is thriving.
we're continuing to experience unprecedented good highs (DOW and growth)
Not really. To date, Dow is only up 3%. For many, we've had a lost year in the stock market. After tomorrow, it will be even worse. As of tonight, my equities are below their December close. Loss of 7.6% in a matter of several days - primarily due to tech being hammered because of the tariffs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010
and good lows (unemployment). Why is there so much enthusiasm for having the economy collapse?? Is it really that important??
A healthy stock market and economy long-term are very important to me. No one wants a collapse, but we can't put our heads in the sand on reality, either. The unemployment picture will change next year as tariffs, higher interest rates, and higher costs for raw materials take effect and businesses start to cut back. Cheering this false flag economy isn't smart when there plenty of gathering clouds due to fiscal irresponsibility.
Tax giveaway was a crime, putting unneeded pressure on govt debt and the cost of borrowing attached to it - especially since everyone knew Fed was on path to raising rates. In that environment, you increase revenue and reduce spending to reduce borrowing costs. Instead our idiot Congress, led on by the ignoramus-in-chief, did exactly the opposite - all to line the pockets of their friends.
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010
Can't you shriek at Trump for something else?? The guy is a loudmouthed imbecile half the time, you don't have to search for long to find something else to criticize.
About this you are absolutely correct. And I have plenty on other threads. Given up on that because the only thing which might wake up those fools is when they lose their jobs and their investments (should they actually have any) go south.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 10-11-2018 at 01:26 AM..
Not really. So, far, we've had a lost year in the stock market. After tomorrow, it will be even worse. As of tonight, my equities are below the December close. Loss of 7.6% in a matter of several days.
No one wants a collapse, but we can't put our heads in the sand on reality, either. The unemployment picture will change next year as tariffs take effect and businesses start to cut back. Cheering this false flag economy isn't smart when there plenty of gathering clouds due to fiscal irresponsibility.
Tax giveaway was a crime, putting unneeded pressure on govt debt and the cost of borrowing attached to it - especially since everyone knew Fed was on path to raising rates. In that environment, you increase revenue and reduce spending to reduce borrowing costs. Instead our idiot Congress, led on by the ignoramus-in-chief, did exactly the opposite - all to line the pockets of their friends.
About this you are absolutely correct. And I have plenty on other threads. Given up on that because the only thing which might wake up those fools is when they lose their jobs and their investments (should they actually have any) go south.
In the end, I remain skeptical as a general rule. I heard people screaming that the end is nigh and the world economy will collapse into dust for years. Hasn't happened yet. I heard people saying that Hurricane Florence will swallow the entire east coast and kill half the planet. I hear the same alarmist rhetoric with Hurricane Michael. I'm going to stick with, "Wait and see, it might not be all that bad."
I have mixed feelings of the use of tariffs long-term, but Trump does have a point. The USA prostituted itself out giving away bad trade deals during the Cold War so people would help us stand up to those evil commies. Now we still have a lot of bad trade deals and they need to be corrected. If China has the good sense and honesty to back down and accept a square deal, then it all goes away. The EU, Mexico and even Trump hating Trudeau's Canada all backed down and renegotiated. If China does the same, the stock market will be a very happy place indeed. Just realize that nobody does pointless stubbornness better than China. Let's wait and see how it all plays out. Pick up some precious metals or the like to hedge against the worst, but hope for the best.
Tax giveaway was a crime, putting unneeded pressure on govt debt and the cost of borrowing attached to it - especially since everyone knew Fed was on path to raising rates. In that environment, you increase revenue and reduce spending to reduce borrowing costs. Instead our idiot Congress, led on by the ignoramus-in-chief, did exactly the opposite - all to line the pockets of their friends.
We have every reason to distrust the federal government with our tax dollars. As a general rule, Republicans give tiny tax cuts while increasing spending. Democrats raise taxes while massively increasing spending. Both of them consistently spend more than we have money coming in. Gotta go back to Dwight Eisenhower to find a POTUS who acted in a fiscally sane manner. Everyone since is just crazy.
At some point, pay down the debt and then set things in motion to eliminate federal income tax entirely. There ain't much worth doing that they do with my tax dollars that couldn't be done as well or better by state or local governments. At the very least, for the love of all that is holy, can we please have a Balanced Budget Amendment??
SO you liberals and Democrats think the best thing is to go back to the old ways where we allow foreign nations, including China, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Brazil, and India to rape our economy and take advantage of us?
The liberal elites really DON'T care about working Americans who lose jobs because of outsourcing and globalization and unfair trade agreements. In almost all of our trade agreements, America is the weaker party and other countries benefit at our expense, especially blue collar and industrial workers. Liberals believe this is worth it for geopolitical purposes. Mexico was the greatest beneficiary from NAFTA while America hemoragghed jobs, and the increased border traffic also led to more drug smuggling and illegal immigration.
Most trade agreements are efforst by the left to redistribute America's wealth to the rest of the world, because foreign aid isn't enough in their view. Of course we must re-negotiate them to they are more fair or where we are the dominant party. IN ALL trade agreements with other countries as of now, America is the weaker party.
The Paris climate accord was also unfair to the U.S. as it would have destroyed countless American jobs, including in my state, while China, India, and Third WOrld countries in Latin America, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa had no obligation to do anything.
Meh. This is predictable. If it becomes serious it will probably change the house and senate both. Which may be fascinating. The root causes are of course the combinations of tax cuts, rising deficits, and a trade war.
Curious as to how bad it will get, or if its just a blip, but I can ABSOLUTELY predict that a recession is going to occur. Simply because they are so predictable. Trump IS mildly responsible for this one coming up, which is a rarity. But it was going to happen one way or another, the question thats of interest is how bad, and what Trump will try to do to blame others.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
