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Old 12-18-2018, 08:28 PM
 
Location: Chicago
937 posts, read 921,155 times
Reputation: 531

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
You voted for the blue Wave and it cost you $260K I pulled out a mil when I saw the Blue Wave coming.
.... Think about what you just said real hard and try your best to figure out how it makes any sense whatsoever

 
Old 12-18-2018, 08:46 PM
 
2,068 posts, read 987,468 times
Reputation: 3641
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
It's amusing watching the factoids the Trumpets make up for themselves. To wit: The Great Recession officially began in December 2007, almost a year before the 2008 election, and more than a year before the Democrats took office in January 2009.

Sorry, but this is only partially correct.


Democrats took control of both houses of Congress on January 3, 2007. Among their achievements was the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, passed Feb 8, 2008.
 
Old 12-18-2018, 09:48 PM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,917,489 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
No matter how many times I repeat this it doesn't seem to get through.

The markets have made less than 5% a year compounded since the year 2000.

That means we are far behind the eight ball now. If they made normal returns for these 18 years, we'd be at 40K plus.

Please - stop repeating that we are at the end of a bull market. 4.75% is not a good return for the stock market.

If we lose 30% and then have a year where it increases 25%, that is not a bull market. Time matters - and performance over time is the ONLY thing that matters.
Just because you repeat your opinion, it doesn't make it true. You are completely misusing facts and historical data, so lets clarify a few things:

1. You are incorrectly using the time period from 2000-2018 to get your return of 4.75%, because it is intentionally misleading to calculate a bull market starting with 3 consecutive years of market losses
2. The average bull market lasts 97 months (~8 years)
3. Everyone says we are in one of the longest bull markets we have seen, so figure more than 8 years
4. Starting in 2003, there has not been a down year, 2015 was essentially flat, but still positive, so essentially 14 years of positive returns of 8% or better if you leave out 2018 where you can try to pinpoint when the downturn has come

Here are the returns for the DJIA (DIA ETF) starting in 2000. I used an ETF since the average person cant build their own replica of the DJIA, which I know isn't perfect, but it captures dividends and its how an actual person can invest in the DJIA:

2000: -4.84%
2001: -5.52%
2002: -15.10%
2003: 28.00%
2004: 5.12%
2005: 1.54%
2006: 18.81%
2007: 8.71%
2008: 31.99%
2009: 22.52%
2010: 13.87%
2011: 8.21%
2012: 10.4%
2013: 29.41%
2014: 9.88%
2015: 0.10%
2016: 16.28%
2017: 27.97%
2018: 5.18%
 
Old 12-19-2018, 12:45 PM
 
20,956 posts, read 8,569,333 times
Reputation: 14048
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
Just because you repeat your opinion, it doesn't make it true. You are completely misusing facts and historical data, so lets clarify a few things:

Here are the returns for the DJIA (DIA ETF) starting in 2000. I used an ETF since the average person cant build their own replica of the DJIA, which I know isn't perfect, but it captures dividends and its how an actual person can invest in the DJIA:

2000: -4.84%
2001: -5.52%
2002: -15.10%
2003: 28.00%
2004: 5.12%
2005: 1.54%
2006: 18.81%
2007: 8.71%
...
I'm a big picture guy, so all I did was take the 10K or so it was in 2000 and used a compound calculator to find out what it is/was today.

Let me be more fair - and take two decades. Dec 1998 to Dec. 2018. That's very relevant because it puts the GWB Great Recession in the center....allowing it to even out.

DOW: 9,000 (approx) 1998 Dec.
DOW: 23,000 (approx) now

Using a compound calculator that's exactly 5%.

If I throw in every benefit of the doubt - and look at the lowest figures for certain time periods, they still come out to 5.3% to 7.5% over entire lifetimes and more (3-4 generations!)....

Swing things way down toward the lower end, a 6% compounded return for the last 20 years would mean DOW 29K.

I can't see any way that folks would conclude "we ran way up so we must correct"....given those figures. Furthermore, given the "Trump touting" and his ad released today saying we should thank him for how great the economy is.....it looks even worse.

The best thing you can say about the market right now is that it is stable. The Economy in general, IMHO, could be good...but isn't due to the Trump Chaos. If he did nothing we'd be way ahead of where we are.

He may yet shut up on the matters (trade, etc.) and unless we have already went into a tailspin (run on the bank sort of thing), then we will see some good upswings. Trump will take credit then also.

Anyway - there is simply no way that most investors with a 20 year in (and many are at that point) have made an incredible return on the DOW Indexes. It's along way backwards from the 8-10% a year that many of us equity investors have made over 3-4 decades....and what we figured on at retirement. Now we have to not only make lower returns, but risk out money to do so! That's an important point because risk usually pays well. Now it doesn't.
 
Old 12-19-2018, 12:57 PM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,917,489 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
I'm a big picture guy, so all I did was take the 10K or so it was in 2000 and used a compound calculator to find out what it is/was today.

Let me be more fair - and take two decades. Dec 1998 to Dec. 2018. That's very relevant because it puts the GWB Great Recession in the center....allowing it to even out.

DOW: 9,000 (approx) 1998 Dec.
DOW: 23,000 (approx) now

Using a compound calculator that's exactly 5%.

If I throw in every benefit of the doubt - and look at the lowest figures for certain time periods, they still come out to 5.3% to 7.5% over entire lifetimes and more (3-4 generations!)....

Swing things way down toward the lower end, a 6% compounded return for the last 20 years would mean DOW 29K.

I can't see any way that folks would conclude "we ran way up so we must correct"....given those figures. Furthermore, given the "Trump touting" and his ad released today saying we should thank him for how great the economy is.....it looks even worse.

The best thing you can say about the market right now is that it is stable. The Economy in general, IMHO, could be good...but isn't due to the Trump Chaos. If he did nothing we'd be way ahead of where we are.

He may yet shut up on the matters (trade, etc.) and unless we have already went into a tailspin (run on the bank sort of thing), then we will see some good upswings. Trump will take credit then also.

Anyway - there is simply no way that most investors with a 20 year in (and many are at that point) have made an incredible return on the DOW Indexes. It's along way backwards from the 8-10% a year that many of us equity investors have made over 3-4 decades....and what we figured on at retirement. Now we have to not only make lower returns, but risk out money to do so! That's an important point because risk usually pays well. Now it doesn't.
So you are essentially doubling down on your prior mistake with all of this spin.

The bull market that people are saying is coming to or already come to an end is specifically the period between ~2001 and ~2018. You can't use average returns from years before that period to try and make your point, that just isn't how it works.

And as a side note, none of my posts assume any relevance to the Trump touting or any other POTUS for that matter. For the most part I view the POTUS as mostly irrelevant when it comes to long term market cycles.
 
Old 12-19-2018, 12:58 PM
 
673 posts, read 460,187 times
Reputation: 1258
Anyone that is down 260K in this market is either a liar.........or the dumbest investor ever born.


All the Trump hating is paid for by the left to have these paid for fools write untruths.


The constant barrage of lying topics is beyond belief from the "paid for " clowns that write it.


If the op has in fact lost that amount of money then they deserve it. For being stupid.
 
Old 12-19-2018, 02:59 PM
 
1,508 posts, read 2,385,180 times
Reputation: 4185
Since I don't lie I guess I'm the dumbest investor ever born. Earlier this year I was up 11% YTD when Trump told me to look at my 401k now I am down 4% YTD. I am 85% stocks 15% bonds....an aggressive portfolio. IRA's held $2.4 million so the $260,000 hit is real.

By the way accumulating that nest egg didn't come from my stupidity.
 
Old 12-19-2018, 03:07 PM
 
12,905 posts, read 15,563,969 times
Reputation: 9392
Quote:
Originally Posted by broncosilly View Post
Anyone that is down 260K in this market is either a liar.........or the dumbest investor ever born.


All the Trump hating is paid for by the left to have these paid for fools write untruths.


The constant barrage of lying topics is beyond belief from the "paid for " clowns that write it.


If the op has in fact lost that amount of money then they deserve it. For being stupid.
Why would you say that? Do you imagine that people don't have that much money in their 401K/IRA accounts.

Mine was earning 8.9% YTD. Didn't get the percentage yet on what I'm down, but I've roughly $40,000 on a $700,000 account.
 
Old 12-19-2018, 09:17 PM
 
Location: Flyover Country
26,212 posts, read 19,403,297 times
Reputation: 21673
Mine is down 16% for the year, my industry has been hurt hard by his idiotic trade war.
 
Old 12-19-2018, 09:21 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
16,563 posts, read 15,105,033 times
Reputation: 14583
Quote:
Originally Posted by caco54 View Post
Back in late January President Trump said "have you looked at your 410k?". I am looking at it now and it is down $260,000 from then. Haven't heard boo from him since.

Took credit in January wonder where he stands today? Who's going to get the blame, my bet he'll say the fed and the witch hunt. Couldn't be the tax cut that created no new demand or his trade policy.
Did yu post thanking him when you were up $260,000? Didn't think so.
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