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He keeps Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and most of the farm belt. Iowa could go either way.
My guess is he loses Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, primarily due to a drop in support among suburban college grads/women, and a slightly smaller voter percentage from white non-college voters due to demographic change.
In 2016, he carries Michigan, Pennsylvania and Winsonsin by a total of 77,000.
The projected loss in white non-college voters due to death and fewer replacement voters in those three states is greater than his 2016 margin.
Obama had 8 years and he didn't do it....Trump only has 2 years and he has done more in taking on the status quo and bad trade deals than Clinton/ Bush /Obama have done in 24 years.
what is the message from the Democrats to counter Trump and bring back jobs in the rustbelt? 70% tax rates? a green deal that will kill middle-class jobs?
everything that the current democrat party is far from open borders that keep wages down and for globalism is counterproductive for the rustbelt.
Even if the Democrats nominate Biden, he has a long record of screwing with the rustbelt since the 80's.
Green jobs is what the rust belt should be embracing. The area needs to reinvent itself, not try to bring back the 1950's (which is never coming back).
There is so much great infrastructure just sitting there waiting to be repurposed.
Green jobs is what the rust belt should be embracing. The area needs to reinvent itself, not try to bring back the 1950's (which is never coming back).
There is so much great infrastructure just sitting there waiting to be repurposed.
Bernie would have actually been the one to help them in that regard
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio are heavily white that used to tilt Democrat (slightly) due to the strong influence of unions and the opinion that Republicans were out-of-touch and the party of big business.
Now that the Democratic party seems to be endorsing identity politics for everyone that is not a white-male, the decimation of the unions, Trump's emphasize on a border wall and tariffs on China (all that play well to the midwest) - I will say Trump will be competitive in the midwest.
But things will change. Democrats were routed in the midwest in 2016, they won't be so naive again. They will campaign far harder there, and I think will try to pick a candidate that appeals to the midwest (if they can shut out Trump of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - I don't see Trump winning in 2020).
I wouldn't put it past Democrats nominating a White male in 2020 to help their odds in those states.
Reason Trump won was cause HRC was a horrible Candidate even Dems disliked and distrusted her and didn't turn out for her. If someone like Biden, Beto, or Harris runs or a combination of both. Trump will be a one term president he won by a hair last time and that was with a lousy Dem candidate.
I don't think Trump is such a lousy candidate. He won against a myriad of Republicans, and beat Hillary Clinton against a very hostile media. He beat her in ways not expected by the pollsters.
Of course, in 2016 Trump had the benefit of having an energized base. How energized will his base be in 2020? How energized will be the opposition?
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