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The 1 in 100,000 number is based on known information. It is an estimate but it’s far more accurate then the 1 in 1,000 estimates used by many.
Do you understand the impact of poverty in disease? And the factors that impact death rates in disease in developing countries vs developed countries? When talking about the measles outbreak in “Europe” you might want to mention which country had the most cases to help people better understand.
1 in 100,000? 1 death in 100,000 would be about 30-40 per 3-4 million cases. No, the number you fudged is 1 in 10,000! Talk about hyperbole. But it is untrue that it is based on known information. It is not known how many deaths there were that were not reported to the CDC as measles deaths.
1 in 1000 is not an estimate. There were about 80,000 cases in Europe, in the entire continent. There were 72 deaths. That is approximatedly 1 death in every 1000 cases, and that'w with the case-finding, computers, and diagnostics that we have today (well, last year).
In the measles epidemic of 1989-91 in the US, there were 55,000 cases and 123 deaths. That is appprox 2 deaths per thousand cases. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/551272_5
(Requires free subscription to read the entire article)
Re: Europe, here is an article from August 2018 that talks about which countries. I point out the date because the number of cases is different from the EOY number. https://www.outbreakobservatory.org/...sles-in-europe "A report by WHO’s European Regional Verification Commission for Measles and Rubella Elimination (RVC), which met between June 13-15 in Paris, noted that 10 of 53 EURO Member States were considered endemic for measles in 2017. These 10 countries accounted for more than 93% of all measles cases reported in the region in 2017 (in alphabetical order): Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Georgia, Germany, Italy, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, and Ukraine. In 2018, seven countries have reported more than 1000 cases, with deaths reported in each: France, Georgia, Greece, Italy, Russian Federation, Serbia, and Ukraine. . . Another major hurdle to controlling the spread of measles in Europe has been low immunization coverage. According to a recent MMWR report, coverage for the first dose of measles containing vaccination (MCV1) in Europe has “declined from 95% to 93% since 2012, with about half of EURO member states reporting lower coverage since 2013.”
You tell me about all this poverty in Belgium, France, Germany Italy and others. Even the poorest of these countries is wealthier than many of the countries in Central/South America that do not have measles outbreaks.
1 in 100,000? 1 death in 100,000 would be about 30-40 per 3-4 million cases. No, the number you fudged is 1 in 10,000! Talk about hyperbole. But it is untrue that it is based on known information. It is not known how many deaths there were that were not reported to the CDC as measles deaths.
1 in 1000 is not an estimate. There were about 80,000 cases in Europe, in the entire continent. There were 72 deaths. That is approximatedly 1 death in every 1000 cases, and that'w with the case-finding, computers, and diagnostics that we have today (well, last year).
In the measles epidemic of 1989-91 in the US, there were 55,000 cases and 123 deaths. That is appprox 2 deaths per thousand cases. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/551272_5
(Requires free subscription to read the entire article)
Re: Europe, here is an article from August 2018 that talks about which countries. I point out the date because the number of cases is different from the EOY number. https://www.outbreakobservatory.org/...sles-in-europe "A report by WHO’s European Regional Verification Commission for Measles and Rubella Elimination (RVC), which met between June 13-15 in Paris, noted that 10 of 53 EURO Member States were considered endemic for measles in 2017. These 10 countries accounted for more than 93% of all measles cases reported in the region in 2017 (in alphabetical order): Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Georgia, Germany, Italy, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, and Ukraine. In 2018, seven countries have reported more than 1000 cases, with deaths reported in each: France, Georgia, Greece, Italy, Russian Federation, Serbia, and Ukraine. . . Another major hurdle to controlling the spread of measles in Europe has been low immunization coverage. According to a recent MMWR report, coverage for the first dose of measles containing vaccination (MCV1) in Europe has “declined from 95% to 93% since 2012, with about half of EURO member states reporting lower coverage since 2013.”
You tell me about all this poverty in Belgium, France, Germany Italy and others. Even the poorest of these countries is wealthier than many of the countries in Central/South America that do not have measles outbreaks.
More then half of all of the cases that you are referencing in Europe were in Ukraine alone.
"Than" MT, "than". Ukraine had 54,000 cases, out of 83,000 in all of Europe. That leaves 29,000 for the rest of the continent. And Ukraine is not a third world country. The biggest problem in Ukraine is vaccine refusal. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019...inian-outbreak "She blames a decade of corruption, war, a lack of political commitment to vaccination, and antivaccine sentiment. . . Elsewhere in Europe, vaccine skepticism has given the virus an opening. Cases in Greece doubled from 2017 to 2018; . . . In the past decade, vaccine refusal has also played a big role in Ukraine."
"Than" MT, "than". Ukraine had 54,000 cases, out of 83,000 in all of Europe. That leaves 29,000 for the rest of the continent. And Ukraine is not a third world country. The biggest problem in Ukraine is vaccine refusal. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019...inian-outbreak "She blames a decade of corruption, war, a lack of political commitment to vaccination, and antivaccine sentiment. . . Elsewhere in Europe, vaccine skepticism has given the virus an opening. Cases in Greece doubled from 2017 to 2018; . . . In the past decade, vaccine refusal has also played a big role in Ukraine."
Was that a micro aggression, Kat?
Ukraine is a developing country with a very high poverty rate. If you want to compare apples to apples then I wouldn’t be comparing the US to Ukraine. About 60% of people in Ukraine live in poverty compared to about 13% in the US. Poverty does have an impact in terms of public health. https://www.kyivpost.com/business/uk...udy-finds.html
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