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Old 04-17-2019, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Japan
10,538 posts, read 4,340,943 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
Funny- Penn State is where Mann works, so it is not surprising they would say that they can predict the "climate", but not the "weather"!
Climate and weather in quotes? You aren't sure if they exist? You really don't understand why the former is easier to predict than the latter?
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Old 04-17-2019, 08:52 AM
Status: ""a mind that understands science"" (set 1 day ago)
 
18,696 posts, read 12,089,077 times
Reputation: 10166
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Enlightenment View Post
Climate and weather in quotes? You aren't sure if they exist? You really don't understand why the former is easier to predict than the latter?


Both are in quotes as the AGW crowd uses the terms "climate" and "weather" to suit whatever situation they prefer.


If some phenomenon refutes their agenda, it's weather.


If something supports their agenda, it's climate.
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Old 04-17-2019, 09:12 AM
 
Location: Planet earth
3,270 posts, read 1,296,243 times
Reputation: 1097
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
Sigh - do we really have to state for the umpteenth time that weather and climate are two different things?

I do know the difference. I just find it amazingly suspicious that scientists claim they can predict climate 50, 80, 100 and more years out with computer models, when the most advanced computer models cannot predict weather more than 2 weeks out. Do weather and climate not contain the very same variables which affect them?

If a computer model cannot fairly accurately predict large areas of rain, drought, temperature, tornadoes, hurricanes or large scale snowfall events 6 months to a year out because of the chaotic inter dependency of all the variables involved, who in their right mind would believe that scientists could predict climate... especially if those scientists are contributing a very high dependency upon the addition or subtraction of a single atmospheric compound, CO2? Every single climate model produced has been way off in its temperature predictions over a course of 10, 15, 20 and 30 years, yet we're supposed to believe this climate science by computer models is science? Do all the other variables cease to exist as contributors simply because we rename that same chaotic system climate and give it a greater time span than we do with weather?

Maybe, just maybe... climate science is in its infancy and rather than attempting to use these computer model predictions to drive public policy and global policy, we ought to test those computer model predictions over time, until we get a much better handle on the predictions... or at least get one right.

Additionally maybe we should demand that these scientists stop "adjusting" the historical temperature data used in their computer models in an attempt to match what their desired (bias) outcome should be for the predictive computer models.

What is called climate science should still be looking backward until it gets a much better handle on what actually caused climate change in the past, so as to be able to better determine what is likely to drive it in the future.


But then again, that's just MY opinion, for what it's worth.
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Old 04-17-2019, 10:28 AM
 
3,136 posts, read 867,838 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KS_Referee View Post
Do weather and climate not contain the very same variables which affect them?
No, they do not. I cannot believe you do not know that, given your vast knowledge in so many other areas.
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Old 04-17-2019, 10:34 AM
 
Location: Divided Tribes of America
13,487 posts, read 5,435,650 times
Reputation: 5277
Quote:
Originally Posted by KS_Referee View Post
Predictability limit: Scientists find bounds of weather forecasting – it’s 2 weeks


Read the article and study paper for yourself at:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/...r-forecasting/
Learn the difference between weather and climate.

The climate models aren’t trying to predict the day-to-day weather for every location on the planet. The climate models are trying to predict average temperature and precipitation. It’s a tall order, yes, but not impossible.

Even without climate models, we know that CO2 absorbs infrared heat. That can be measured in a laboratory. Physicists have known that for 150 years. Thus, we can predict that adding large amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere will gradually increase the average temperature.

Last edited by Freak80; 04-17-2019 at 10:47 AM..
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Old 04-17-2019, 10:59 AM
Status: ""a mind that understands science"" (set 1 day ago)
 
18,696 posts, read 12,089,077 times
Reputation: 10166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freak80 View Post
Learn the difference between weather and climate.

The climate models aren’t trying to predict the day-to-day weather for every location on the planet. The climate models are trying to predict average temperature and precipitation. It’s a tall order, yes, but not impossible.

Even without climate models, we know that CO2 absorbs infrared heat. That can be measured in a laboratory. Physicists have known that for 150 years. Thus, we can predict that adding large amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere will gradually increase the average temperature.


Okay- so when does "weather" stop and "climate" begin?1 month? 3 months? 6 months? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? 50 years? 100 years? 1,000 years?


We also know that water absorbs 30X as much heat as CO2, yet the AGW crowd hates CO2 and loves water. Man made CO2 is only 5% of all atmospheric CO2. Further, when one mole of gasoline is burned, it creates more moles water than CO2.
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:01 AM
 
829 posts, read 131,114 times
Reputation: 468
Based on the OP post, the OP has learned.

It is easier to follow trends and hypothesize from that data then to predict a single point of data.
Hmmm someone just woke up.
Welcome to science, nice of you to join us.

BTW anyone who does fantasy football also know this fact.
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:03 AM
 
Location: Caverns measureless to man...
7,242 posts, read 4,627,399 times
Reputation: 16316
Quote:
Originally Posted by KS_Referee View Post

I do know the difference. I just find it amazingly suspicious that scientists claim they can predict climate 50, 80, 100 and more years out with computer models, when the most advanced computer models cannot predict weather more than 2 weeks out. Do weather and climate not contain the very same variables which affect them?
No, not even close. So obviously you don't know the difference.

Shocking.



Quote:
Originally Posted by KS_Referee View Post

But then again, that's just MY opinion, for what it's worth.
About the same as every other opinion I've seen you post. Not a dime's worth. Look, if this stuff is too complicated for you to understand, just admit it. There's no shame. It's better than making yourself look foolish with every post, isn't it?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
Sigh - do we really have to state for the umpteenth time that weather and climate are two different things?
There's no point. Dunning Kruger.
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Planet earth
3,270 posts, read 1,296,243 times
Reputation: 1097
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raddo View Post
No, they do not. I cannot believe you do not know that, given your vast knowledge in so many other areas.

Well MAYBE that's one of many reasons every predictive climate model to date has been wrong. Maybe using "adjusted" temperature data instead of the actual measured historical temperature data is another reason every predictive climate model to date has been wrong.



But then again, that's just MY opinion, for what it's worth.
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Divided Tribes of America
13,487 posts, read 5,435,650 times
Reputation: 5277
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
Okay- so when does "weather" stop and "climate" begin?1 month? 3 months? 6 months? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? 50 years? 100 years? 1,000 years?


We also know that water absorbs 30X as much heat as CO2, yet the AGW crowd hates CO2 and loves water. Man made CO2 is only 5% of all atmospheric CO2. Further, when one mole of gasoline is burned, it creates more moles water than CO2.
Climate is the weather averaged over at least 30 years.

Water vapor precipitates out of the atmosphere (aka rain). Carbon dioxide does not. That’s why climatologists are worried about CO2 and not water vapor.

Nonetheless, a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which will enhance global warming from carbon dioxide.
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