U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-14-2019, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
4,815 posts, read 1,986,314 times
Reputation: 5262

Advertisements

This morning 5/14/2019, the treasury yield curve was inverted for at least the second time this year. Three month treasury bills were yielding 2.42% and ten year treasury bills were yielding 2.41%. A flat or inverted yield curve has preceded all of the recessions since WW2.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-14-2019, 07:46 PM
 
Location: New York
1,407 posts, read 270,827 times
Reputation: 1043
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
This morning 5/14/2019, the treasury yield curve was inverted for at least the second time this year. Three month treasury bills were yielding 2.42% and ten year treasury bills were yielding 2.41%. A flat or inverted yield curve has preceded all of the recessions since WW2.

But a recession hasn't resulted from an inversion every time. There's the rub.


There is no bubble that would cause a recession. Housing isn't out of control with 120% loans and toxic assets being sold as AAA investments. I just did a refi and I had to jump through hoops just to qualify for a 50% loan to value. I've never had such a hard time getting a loan.



Do you believe we are heading into a recession and if so, why?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2019, 07:50 PM
 
3,123 posts, read 2,703,036 times
Reputation: 1713
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originalist View Post
But a recession hasn't resulted from an inversion every time. There's the rub.


There is no bubble that would cause a recession. Housing isn't out of control with 120% loans and toxic assets being sold as AAA investments. I just did a refi and I had to jump through hoops just to qualify for a 50% loan to value. I've never had such a hard time getting a loan.



Do you believe we are heading into a recession and if so, why?
Not all bubbles is about housing.

And while US do not have a massive housing bubble, China and severall other countries do. These days recessions are global, not local.

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2019, 08:45 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
13,660 posts, read 8,577,038 times
Reputation: 19865
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
This morning 5/14/2019, the treasury yield curve was inverted for at least the second time this year. Three month treasury bills were yielding 2.42% and ten year treasury bills were yielding 2.41%. A flat or inverted yield curve has preceded all of the recessions since WW2.
Good. We keep cash in 4 week T Bills, and the 4 week T Bills are currently paying pretty well.
We're going to use that instead of CD's for a while, since we may need the money.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:04 PM
 
Location: Pyongjang
5,506 posts, read 2,331,988 times
Reputation: 3708
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
Not all bubbles is about housing.

And while US do not have a massive housing bubble, China and severall other countries do. These days recessions are global, not local.
Linear charts are misleading. You have to do logarithmic.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Long Island
33,015 posts, read 13,934,881 times
Reputation: 7027
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originalist View Post
But a recession hasn't resulted from an inversion every time. There's the rub.


There is no bubble that would cause a recession. Housing isn't out of control with 120% loans and toxic assets being sold as AAA investments. I just did a refi and I had to jump through hoops just to qualify for a 50% loan to value. I've never had such a hard time getting a loan.



Do you believe we are heading into a recession and if so, why?
The inversion has preceded every recession going back decades, it has accurately predicted the last 5.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:08 PM
 
12,044 posts, read 5,713,540 times
Reputation: 7046
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
This morning 5/14/2019, the treasury yield curve was inverted for at least the second time this year. Three month treasury bills were yielding 2.42% and ten year treasury bills were yielding 2.41%. A flat or inverted yield curve has preceded all of the recessions since WW2.
I wouldnít worry. Itís much too early for the Leftists to attempt to Crash the US Economy to win the 2020 Election. They will wait until late summer of next year.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:09 PM
 
1,468 posts, read 292,564 times
Reputation: 1305
The liberals are giddy with excitement at the chance of a major crash that would destroy the lives of millions. Pathetic.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:45 PM
 
Location: Places you dream of
20,208 posts, read 12,118,600 times
Reputation: 8771
Quote:
Originally Posted by RowingFiend View Post
The liberals are giddy with excitement at the chance of a major crash that would destroy the lives of millions. Pathetic.
Like they would not be equally affected I canít even perceive the thinking.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2019, 10:10 PM
 
1,468 posts, read 292,564 times
Reputation: 1305
Quote:
Originally Posted by tinytrump View Post
Like they would not be equally affected I canít even perceive the thinking.
Their disability and unemployment checks will continue to come even if there's a crash.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top