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Old 06-08-2019, 03:54 PM
Status: "think locally, act yokelly." (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: Clyde Hill, WA
3,245 posts, read 579,095 times
Reputation: 980

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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
You say "everything else" but the electoral college was 286 to 351 the actual popular vote was 2% just as it was in 2016.
I think this buttresses my point. If your numbers are right, the EC vote was 45% Kerry, 55% Bush, whereas the popular vote was only a 2 point difference.

Just look at the map. Kerry won the west coast, the NE, 4 Midwestern states (IL, WI, MN, MI) and HI. Bush won the entire rest of the country.
https://www.google.com/search?q=2004...yW3Osvv9rsESM:
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Old 06-08-2019, 04:07 PM
 
7,069 posts, read 2,512,887 times
Reputation: 3572
Quote:
Originally Posted by travis t View Post
Yes, it's still a center-right nation, possibly even slightly to the right of where it was in 1972. Americans are not going to elect a self-described socialist. I doubt that even an Elizabeth Warren would have a chance, even if she wasn't a poor campaigner.

Democrats need to select one of the more sane moderates, such as Julian Castro or Michael Bennet, and run with that.
This isn’t 1972, or even 1984.

In 2016 Trump matched Reagan’s benchmark level of support among non-college whites in 1984.

In 1984, non-college whites were such a dominant percentage of total votes (62%), that equated to nearly 59% of all votes cast for Reagan, a popular vote margin of nearly 17 million votes, and a 525 to 13 romp (97.6%) in the Electoral College.

By 2016, the percentage of total votes cast by non-college whites dropped to 46% of total votes cast, a deficit of nearly 3 million votes in the national popular vote cast and a 304-227 win (56.5%) in the electoral college, with three key states worth 46 EV carried by a total of 77,000 votes. While the non-college whites share of total votes cast has plummeted since 1984, they still accounted for 63% of Donald Trump’s voters.

Non-college white voters share of registered voters has been dropping on average by 2% with every 4 year POTUS cycle. It was 46% in 2016, and is predicted to fall to 44% in 2020 and 37% by 2036.

Demographically, we’re never going to be 1972, or even 1984 again.


https://www.people-press.org/2018/08...d-trump-voters

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...oral-future-2/
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Old 06-08-2019, 04:22 PM
Status: "think locally, act yokelly." (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: Clyde Hill, WA
3,245 posts, read 579,095 times
Reputation: 980
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
This isnít 1972, or even 1984.

In 2016 Trump matched Reaganís benchmark level of support among non-college whites in 1984.

In 1984, non-college whites were such a dominant percentage of total votes (62%), that equated to nearly 59% of all votes cast for Reagan, a popular vote margin of nearly 17 million votes, and a 525 to 13 romp (97.6%) in the Electoral College.

By 2016, the percentage of total votes cast by non-college whites dropped to 46% of total votes cast, a deficit of nearly 3 million votes in the national popular vote cast and a 304-227 win (56.5%) in the electoral college, with three key states worth 46 EV carried by a total of 77,000 votes. While the non-college whites share of total votes cast has plummeted since 1984, they still accounted for 63% of Donald Trumpís voters.

Non-college white voters share of registered voters has been dropping on average by 2% with every 4 year POTUS cycle. It was 46% in 2016, and is predicted to fall to 44% in 2020 and 37% by 2036.

Demographically, weíre never going to be 1972, or even 1984 again.


https://www.people-press.org/2018/08...d-trump-voters

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...oral-future-2/
I don't disagree with any of that, and it is why President Obama beat both McCain and Romney. But Obama was not Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. Obama was center-left at best, and center-right by many accounts.

Here's a number for you: even after the Democratic party gains in 2018, the GOP still controls about 60% of US political turf if you add up the WH, US House, US Senate, governorships, and state legislative bodies.

In other words, we still have a center-right country.

Thanks for being the second poster to point out that this isn't 1972. I wouldn't have known that otherwise.
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Old 06-08-2019, 04:56 PM
 
7,069 posts, read 2,512,887 times
Reputation: 3572
Quote:
Originally Posted by travis t View Post
I don't disagree with any of that, and it is why President Obama beat both McCain and Romney. But Obama was not Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. Obama was center-left at best, and center-right by many accounts.

Here's a number for you: even after the Democratic party gains in 2018, the GOP still controls about 60% of US political turf if you add up the WH, US House, US Senate, governorships, and state legislative bodies.

In other words, we still have a center-right country.

Thanks for being the second poster to point out that this isn't 1972. I wouldn't have known that otherwise.
Unless the GOP expands its voting base to more closely match that of the country as it is now, and what it is becoming, rather than what it was 50 years ago, it’s living on borrowed time.

Quote:
Rachel Larimore/The Bulwark

Last week Pew released a study that showed that members of Generation Z (those born after 1996) are “moving toward adulthood with a liberal set of attitudes and an openness to emerging social trends.”
Quote:

The Trump presidency’s electoral (and political) degradation of the GOP at the same time we are experiencing such a significant cultural shift presents conservatives with an opportunity to consider the roots of our ideology, to decide what really matters and is worth preserving.
Let’s start with the orange elephant in the room. The youngs don’t like Donald Trump. The only generation that gives him a majority approval rating is the “silent” generation (those born before 1945). After that, Trump’s approval numbers by generation are downright grim. boomers: 43 percent; Gen-X: 38 percent; millennials: 29 percent; Gen-Z: 30 percent.
When the numbers are this stark, you don’t even have to project out a generation to see the electoral effects. Trump’s strongest cohort is people aged 73 to 90 in 2018. Some non-trivial percentage of those folks—probably upward of 5 percent—won’t be around even in November 2020.
.
Quote:

From a policy perspective, conservatism is on a lonely walk in the wilderness right now. But that creates an opportunity to emerge with a more modern, reformed conservatism—one that rejects both corporate imperatives and blood-and-soil nationalism. One that focuses on the importance of freedom and individual liberty, two things that are limited by government.
But if conservatives fail to offer ideas or solutions for the problems that voters care about, government is exactly where those voters will turn.
https://thebulwark.com/darwin-is-com...r-the-gop/amp/

Quote:
Jennifer Rubin/Washington Post

Turnout alone cannot stop the erosion of the older, whiter and more conservative generations’ dominance. The attempt to suppress voting among poorer and nonwhite voters (who tend to be younger and also more progressive) should be seen for what it is: a last-gasp effort to extend older and whiter generations’ disproportionate power in a country becoming more secular, more diverse and more progressive.
More specifically, the percentage of conservative evangelicals — on whom the Republican Party is increasingly dependent — is shrinking as well:

General Social Survey data analyzed by Ryan P. Burge of Eastern Illinois University, Americans claiming “no religion” — sometimes referred to as “nones” because of how they answer the question “what is your religious tradition?” — now represent about 23.1 percent of the population, up from 21.6 percent in 2016. People claiming evangelicalism, by contrast, now represent 22.5 percent of Americans, a slight dip from 23.9 percent in 2016.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.507907db08f2

Quote:
David Brooks/New York Times

As Ronald Brownstein pointed out in The Atlantic, older Democrats prefer a more moderate candidate who they think can win. Younger Democrats prefer a more progressive candidate who they think can bring systemic change.

The generation gap is even more powerful when it comes to Republicans. To put it bluntly, young adults hate them.
In 2018, voters under 30 supported Democratic House candidates over Republican ones by an astounding 67 percent to 32 percent. A 2018 Pew survey found that 59 percent of millennial voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, while only 32 percent identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
The difference is ideological. According to Pew, 57 percent of millennials call themselves consistently liberal or mostly liberal. Only 12 percent call themselves consistently conservative or mostly conservative. This is the most important statistic in American politics right now.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/03/o...core-ios-share

While none of the commentators listed below are Trump supporters, none are Democrats either, and all can see how being increasingly dependent on the demographic groups that are dropping in significance with each electoral cycle is a slowly unfolding disaster for the Republican Party.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-08-2019 at 05:10 PM..
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Old 06-08-2019, 05:03 PM
 
Location: 500 miles from home
30,013 posts, read 16,597,455 times
Reputation: 22587
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
Does anyone here remember George McGovern? He was the democrat who was trounced by Richard Nixon in 1972. This was less than two years before Nixon resigned in disgrace.

We democrats watch CNN, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, and listen to NPR on the radio. We read the East coast and West coast newspapers. Some of the East coast newspapers are especially tough on Trump. Lets look at Donald Trump. He is the white people's champion. Many are under the delusion that he will bring back those jobs that could actually feed and house a family. What is true about him is that he is the first one to really end the Marshall plan. He recognizes that America is in competition with the rest of the world, and the treaties that have sped up the loss of good jobs in America must be repudiated.

Getting back to the title of this thread. There was an amusing cartoon in Playboy in late 72 or early 73 that has the caption at the bottom of the page which says "I can't understand why McGovern lost, everyone I know voted for him".

Is there reason to believe that we are in that McGovern Syndrome bubble now by expecting an overwhelming democratic victory? If so why?
I don't know any Democrat who is expecting an overwhelming victory. We have a 50/50 chance of winning. Just like 2016.
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Old 06-08-2019, 05:16 PM
Status: "think locally, act yokelly." (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: Clyde Hill, WA
3,245 posts, read 579,095 times
Reputation: 980
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Unless the GOP expands its voting base to more closely match that of the country as it is now, and what it is becoming, rather than what it was 50 years ago, itís living on borrowed time.





https://thebulwark.com/darwin-is-com...r-the-gop/amp/



https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.507907db08f2



https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/03/o...core-ios-share

While none of the commentators listed below are Trump supporters, none are Democrats either, and all can see how being increasingly dependent on the demographic groups that are dropping in significance with each electoral cycle is a slowly unfolding disaster for the Republican Party.
The GOP has been trying to attract non-white voters for the last several years. It was a priority for Priebus when he was RNC chair. He hired Juan Williams' kid to try to focus on just that.

It's a long slow process, but they have made surprising progress.
https://www.cnn.com/2013/01/18/opini...ity/index.html

I would not take for granted that Democrats will always get 80% of the non-white vote as they did under Obama. If you look at people like Candace Owens, who is wildly popular among conservatives, things are changing.
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Old 06-08-2019, 05:22 PM
 
7,069 posts, read 2,512,887 times
Reputation: 3572
Quote:
Originally Posted by travis t View Post
The GOP has been trying to attract non-white voters for the last several years. It was a priority for Priebus when he was RNC chair. He hired Juan Williams' kid to try to focus on just that.

It's a long slow process, but they have made surprising progress.
https://www.cnn.com/2013/01/18/opini...ity/index.html

I would not take for granted that Democrats will always get 80% of the non-white vote as they did under Obama. If you look at people like Candace Owens, who is wildly popular among conservatives, things are changing.
She’s wildly popular among conservatives because she says what white conservatives want to hear, but there’s no evidence that she represents anything more than a black who, like Polyester and Cubic Zerconium, know how to cash in.

Back to the 1972 and 1984 references. I’m assuming you referenced those elections and the George McGovern reference to hint that Trump will win a 49-1 or 48-2 sweep as Nixon and Reagan did in those years. I repeat, we’re a totally different country demographically than we were 35+ years ago. The same bloc voters that fueled Nixon and Reagan’s landslides are barely capable of simply winning in 2020 without massively expanding the R base, and Trump has shown no ability at doing that at all.

We’re likely to see another election where both sides have 200 EV in the bag. It’s the political equivalent of playing between the 40 or 45 yard lines.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-08-2019 at 05:32 PM..
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Old 06-08-2019, 05:38 PM
 
Location: Oklahoma
6,852 posts, read 6,186,695 times
Reputation: 6127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
Does anyone here remember George McGovern...........

Getting back to the title of this thread. There was an amusing cartoon in Playboy in late 72 or early 73 that has the caption at the bottom of the page which says "I can't understand why McGovern lost, everyone I know voted for him".
I guess these people never noticed the polls leading up to the 1972 election. In the last six months of the race McGovern was never closer than 16 percentage point behind and going into November he was 20-25 points behind.
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Old 06-08-2019, 05:59 PM
 
Location: Divided Tribes of America
13,696 posts, read 5,517,808 times
Reputation: 5376
This is America. The working classes will support a candidate that works against their economic interests, as long as he/she promises to protect them from the evil blacks/browns/while males/gays/Jews, etc.
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Old 06-08-2019, 06:24 PM
 
Location: Houston
22,509 posts, read 11,590,788 times
Reputation: 9076
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Unless the GOP expands its voting base to more closely match that of the country as it is now, and what it is becoming, rather than what it was 50 years ago, it’s living on borrowed time.





https://thebulwark.com/darwin-is-com...r-the-gop/amp/



https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.507907db08f2



https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/03/o...core-ios-share

While none of the commentators listed below are Trump supporters, none are Democrats either, and all can see how being increasingly dependent on the demographic groups that are dropping in significance with each electoral cycle is a slowly unfolding disaster for the Republican Party.
Those under 30 have always been overwhelmingly liberal. As they move to higher tax brackets and as the center moves left they become conservatives.
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