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Old 06-18-2019, 09:30 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
27,306 posts, read 15,772,260 times
Reputation: 9861

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Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
I'm hoping that maybe a 3rd party will win out. I don't like Biden. I don't like Trump either. It's like people who would make decent leaders don't want to run for office. And those who want to run for office are either strongmen or the very questionable.
I think a 3rd party needs to show up and no, I'm not talking the libertarian party (especially if Gary Johnson runs again.) I'm not against a third party and would like one or even multiple viable parties similar to other countries, but not this election and under this system. I don't like Biden but I can live with him. I don't know how we will survive four more years of Trump. Trump is too important to not vote 3rd part.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ahzzie View Post
Throwing your vote away on a third party candidate dilutes the votes the Democratic candidate receives and is, by far, the best way to get Trump re-elected. Even if the candidate of my dreams runs as a third party I'm still voting Biden. Getting Trump out is that important.
As it stands right now, the only reason to vote third party is if you are in a locked in state. Arizona is trending purple so maybe it is a bad idea to vote third party. If I lived in NY (a solid blue state) or Arizona (a formerly solid red state), maybe I could if I liked them better than the Democratic candidate (in most cases I will NEVER vote Republican ever again.) That said, because of the electoral college as it stands with being a race to 271 (half+1 of 538 Congressional seats) and not just most electoral votes, it is a deterrent to third parties. Many times people see third parties as a distraction vote like Nader in Ohio during 2000, Perot in 1992, Wallace in 1968, Thurmond in 1948 and T. Roosevelt in 1912 regardless if they won electoral votes (Wallace, Thurmond and Roosevelt) or potentially gave states away (Nader and Perot.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948 View Post
You are rewriting recent history a formidable task
the polls did not predict a narrow race
So you mean to tell me polling in individual states were not close enough to be a victory for Trump within the margin of error? According to 538
Clinton was fairly likely to win in five states she lost in: Florida (FLA), Pennsylvania (PA), Michigan (MI), North Carolina (NC) and Wisconsin (WI.) Trump had a 17.6% chance of tipping FLA for a win, a 12.3% chance in Penn, an 11.7% chance in Mich, an 11.2% chance in NC and an abysmal 4.8% chance in WI. WI was the smallest sliver of a chance of tipping the election and Trump won. I don't think polling was broken because I think all these were actually within margin of error. Nationally, it was right. State by state wise, it was statistically right.

 
Old 06-19-2019, 10:20 AM
 
Location: southern california
55,663 posts, read 74,604,692 times
Reputation: 48168
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
I think a 3rd party needs to show up and no, I'm not talking the libertarian party (especially if Gary Johnson runs again.) I'm not against a third party and would like one or even multiple viable parties similar to other countries, but not this election and under this system. I don't like Biden but I can live with him. I don't know how we will survive four more years of Trump. Trump is too important to not vote 3rd part.



As it stands right now, the only reason to vote third party is if you are in a locked in state. Arizona is trending purple so maybe it is a bad idea to vote third party. If I lived in NY (a solid blue state) or Arizona (a formerly solid red state), maybe I could if I liked them better than the Democratic candidate (in most cases I will NEVER vote Republican ever again.) That said, because of the electoral college as it stands with being a race to 271 (half+1 of 538 Congressional seats) and not just most electoral votes, it is a deterrent to third parties. Many times people see third parties as a distraction vote like Nader in Ohio during 2000, Perot in 1992, Wallace in 1968, Thurmond in 1948 and T. Roosevelt in 1912 regardless if they won electoral votes (Wallace, Thurmond and Roosevelt) or potentially gave states away (Nader and Perot.)



So you mean to tell me polling in individual states were not close enough to be a victory for Trump within the margin of error? According to 538
Clinton was fairly likely to win in five states she lost in: Florida (FLA), Pennsylvania (PA), Michigan (MI), North Carolina (NC) and Wisconsin (WI.) Trump had a 17.6% chance of tipping FLA for a win, a 12.3% chance in Penn, an 11.7% chance in Mich, an 11.2% chance in NC and an abysmal 4.8% chance in WI. WI was the smallest sliver of a chance of tipping the election and Trump won. I don't think polling was broken because I think all these were actually within margin of error. Nationally, it was right. State by state wise, it was statistically right.
Yes I do

https://photos.app.goo.gl/24JE9L6da5yDscY78
 
Old 06-19-2019, 10:23 AM
 
32,441 posts, read 16,619,113 times
Reputation: 17453
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948 View Post
You are rewriting recent history a formidable task
the polls did not predict a narrow race
538 gave Trump a 30+% chance of winning. One in three.
 
Old 06-19-2019, 10:29 AM
 
6,558 posts, read 1,348,237 times
Reputation: 16621
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGoodTheBadTheUgly View Post
They want Creepy Uncle Joe as their President.

Do they realize what they’re going to get under a Biden presidency:

1. Higher Taxes

2. The new green deal that will cause Higher energy costs

3. Stock Market crashing

4. A president owned and bought by The Chinese

5. Dismal economic growth

6. Wide open borders

7. Trade agreements that put American workers last

8. Socialized medicine basically destroying the best health care system in The world

9. Getting on his knee pads to leaders around the world continuing the Obamas apology tour


Holy moly I can hardly wait.....


https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pres...ry?id=63718268
I think you should be hesitant about making any predictions. History has shown that events don't always go as expected -- in fact, I would venture to say that they usually don't.
 
Old 06-19-2019, 03:27 PM
 
2,264 posts, read 622,899 times
Reputation: 2371
Have Americans Lost Their Minds?: President Trump’s internal polling data from March showed him far behind Joe Biden

Apparently vast numbers of Americans who previously had misplaced their minds and souls have found them. As Martha Stewart says, "that's a good thing!"
 
Old 06-19-2019, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Colorado
11,860 posts, read 7,305,709 times
Reputation: 21276
Biden is nothing but Hillary 2: Electric Boogaloo. Whether real, fake, or somewhere in between, all the imagery and vids of him touching people (little girls mostly) in questionable ways, and a bunch of coverage of him saying or supporting things that liberals don't like, he's getting bad press. And in contrast, there will be a candidate (or a few) that get a lot of popularity with Dems, and then no matter how people vote or what people say or what happens, Biden will get the nomination. He'll be the candidate the Dems don't like who gets it anyways and makes everybody mad. There will be screaming about how he stole it or the DNC is hacked or corrupt (which is probably true.) And then the media will tell us not to worry though, that surely he'll get the election over Trump, because hey, it's Trump, who likes that guy?

The only question is whether enough Dems (this time) will hold their noses and show up to vote whether they hate him or not, just to get Trump bumped out.

Or, ya know, if Biden is owned by the Chinese, as I believe the OP claimed, it's only a question of who's got the better hackers to control the voting machines or the computers that store or aggregate voting data, the Chinese, or the Russians?
 
Old 06-19-2019, 05:34 PM
 
1,690 posts, read 1,734,785 times
Reputation: 1249
Did we already forget that the polls are completely fake/useless? Does no one remember that they unanimously gave Hitlery a 98% chance of winning leading right up to the election?
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