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Old 06-25-2019, 07:33 AM
 
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OP so you picked: "ending abortion" and "war with iran".

What's wrong? Has nuclear war with China lost it's shock value?

Would you care to pick some topics next time that actually have happened?

Certainly environmental roll-backs and a trade-fight with China although the latter of those two was long overdue imo.
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Old 06-25-2019, 07:35 AM
 
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I think the butterfly flapped its wings way more earlier, 1979 (Iranian Revolution) or even 1953 (Operation Ajax).
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Old 06-25-2019, 09:02 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
13,664 posts, read 8,577,038 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hrw-500 View Post
I think the butterfly flapped its wings way more earlier, 1979 (Iranian Revolution) or even 1953 (Operation Ajax).
The Iranian flapping actually has its roots in 1902 when Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini, a descendant of Mohammad, was born. He became Ayatollah Khomeini. Further flapping occurred when the Shah of Iran decided to banish him instead of executing him.
You just never know what these small decisions may bring.
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Old 06-25-2019, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Cleaning CAT VOMIT out of radiators
2,228 posts, read 868,031 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
The Iranian flapping actually has its roots in 1902 when Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini, a descendant of Mohammad, was born. He became Ayatollah Khomeini. Further flapping occurred when the Shah of Iran decided to banish him instead of executing him.
You just never know what these small decisions may bring.
This is turning into a history thread.

Again: My 'butterflies' were intended to represent voters. That you think you are just flicking a lever or filling in a circle on a sheet - your vote could, by a complicated series of events, lead to the third world war if you're not careful and THINK before voting.
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Old 06-25-2019, 11:52 AM
 
11,639 posts, read 5,932,574 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGrandK-Man View Post


My thought? You need to learn what a metaphor is.
There's a crack pipe, and a cracked pipe - it's all the same to me.
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Old 06-25-2019, 11:59 AM
 
11,639 posts, read 5,932,574 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
The Iranian flapping actually has its roots in 1902 when Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini, a descendant of Mohammad, was born. He became Ayatollah Khomeini. Further flapping occurred when the Shah of Iran decided to banish him instead of executing him.
You just never know what these small decisions may bring.
I don't think Jimmy Carter knew what he was dealing with, including himself.
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Old 06-25-2019, 12:59 PM
 
6,895 posts, read 2,526,357 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGrandK-Man View Post


Finally - someone who gets it!!

The 'butterflies' represent the voters!

So remember, before you vote - one way or another - pause, pray, and reflect on how your choice might impact your neighbors, people in other states with circumstances that may differ from yours, and how your choice might impact the destiny of all of human kind.
Trump didn't end or curtail abortion. A few states have, at least until the eventual challenge makes it to SCOTUS, but that isn't Trump doing anything. The Congress makes the laws, and these abortion laws are all passing while Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is Speaker of the House and the Democrats are the House majority. Basically, nothing is happening at the federal level because neither Executive nor Legislative branch at the federal level has power over what state legislatures do.

What is happening isn't based on Trump, it's based on the 10th Amendment. States have legislatures, and there is no federal law mandating abortion law to the states, who are free to come up with their own laws inside their states as they see fit. If they cannot pass Constitutional muster, ten SCOTUS will eventually weigh in on that. Until then, we have 50 sovereign states and a 9th and 10th Amendment that added together say in the absence of an enumerated power on the topic, the federal government doesn't have that power and the States and People do. Welcome to a perfect illustration of the federalism upon which the nation you live in was founded.

What comes next is whether federalism wins or does centralized power?

Your butterfly effect analogy fails hard on the point. Check the legislature majority history in he 13 states that put some new restriction on abortion in 2019:
  1. North Dakota - GOP House since 1995
  2. Utah - GOP House since before 1992
  3. Texas - GOP House since 2003
  4. Missouri - GOP House since 2003
  5. Arkansas - GOP House since 2013
  6. Louisiana - GOP House since 2011
  7. Indiana - GOP House since 2011
  8. Ohio - GOP House all but two years (2009-10) since 1995
  9. Kentucky - GOP House since 2017
  10. Tennessee - GOP House since 2009
  11. Alabama - GOP House since 2011
  12. Mississippi - GOP House since 2012
  13. Georgia - GOP House since 2005
Except for Kentucky, every single state that has passed some new restriction on abortion had been a GOP majority well before Trump was elected. And 8 of them went GOP during Obama's administration.

Under no logical theory can the recent number of new state level abortion restrictions find even a tangential causation with Trump's election. Even if you posit that his appointments of Gorsuch and Kavanaugh emboldened the various state legislatures, you should probably pay particular attention to how Gorsuch rules on anything that is "individual vs state" because he is almost always on the side of individual liberty. And the SCOTUS will hear these challenges, guaranteed.
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:40 PM
 
Location: Cleaning CAT VOMIT out of radiators
2,228 posts, read 868,031 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volobjectitarian View Post
Trump didn't end or curtail abortion. A few states have, at least until the eventual challenge makes it to SCOTUS, but that isn't Trump doing anything. The Congress makes the laws, and these abortion laws are all passing while Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is Speaker of the House and the Democrats are the House majority. Basically, nothing is happening at the federal level because neither Executive nor Legislative branch at the federal level has power over what state legislatures do.

What is happening isn't based on Trump, it's based on the 10th Amendment. States have legislatures, and there is no federal law mandating abortion law to the states, who are free to come up with their own laws inside their states as they see fit. If they cannot pass Constitutional muster, ten SCOTUS will eventually weigh in on that. Until then, we have 50 sovereign states and a 9th and 10th Amendment that added together say in the absence of an enumerated power on the topic, the federal government doesn't have that power and the States and People do. Welcome to a perfect illustration of the federalism upon which the nation you live in was founded.

What comes next is whether federalism wins or does centralized power?

Your butterfly effect analogy fails hard on the point. Check the legislature majority history in he 13 states that put some new restriction on abortion in 2019:
  1. North Dakota - GOP House since 1995
  2. Utah - GOP House since before 1992
  3. Texas - GOP House since 2003
  4. Missouri - GOP House since 2003
  5. Arkansas - GOP House since 2013
  6. Louisiana - GOP House since 2011
  7. Indiana - GOP House since 2011
  8. Ohio - GOP House all but two years (2009-10) since 1995
  9. Kentucky - GOP House since 2017
  10. Tennessee - GOP House since 2009
  11. Alabama - GOP House since 2011
  12. Mississippi - GOP House since 2012
  13. Georgia - GOP House since 2005
Except for Kentucky, every single state that has passed some new restriction on abortion had been a GOP majority well before Trump was elected. And 8 of them went GOP during Obama's administration.

Under no logical theory can the recent number of new state level abortion restrictions find even a tangential causation with Trump's election. Even if you posit that his appointments of Gorsuch and Kavanaugh emboldened the various state legislatures, you should probably pay particular attention to how Gorsuch rules on anything that is "individual vs state" because he is almost always on the side of individual liberty. And the SCOTUS will hear these challenges, guaranteed.
I was using more recent events/elections as examples.

In the case of all those GOP dominated state legislatures - how do you think they got that way? The voters have flapped their wings! But once a state superior court decides an issue, it can be appealed before the USSC. Thus the butterfly effect spreads to national legal decision.
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Old 06-25-2019, 02:13 PM
 
6,895 posts, read 2,526,357 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGrandK-Man View Post
I was using more recent events/elections as examples.

In the case of all those GOP dominated state legislatures - how do you think they got that way? The voters have flapped their wings! But once a state superior court decides an issue, it can be appealed before the USSC. Thus the butterfly effect spreads to national legal decision.
You are referencing the butterfly effect and I suspect you aren't really familiar with how it works.

Voters directly voting for a thing is not a variable condition that leads to chaos expanding out over time. If new laws are Republican specific, and voters voted Republican specific, it is direct cause and effect, not chaos.

The butterfly effect is when a seemingly unrelated variable is altered to some degree and in an infinitely complex equation iterated some number of times, the effect of that previously considered unrelated thing has some dramatic downstream effect in the larger equation. As in, he butterfly flaps its wings in China and the tiny change in the local atmosphere, over time, results in a weather pattern that causes a tornado in Oklahoma.

What you are referencing is not chaos theory. It is simple cause and effect. Republican voters voted Republican house majorities in 13 states, and those Republican majorities enacted Republican friendly laws, exactly as the voters wished and expected. 2 + 2 = 4 isn't chaos, it's arithmetic.

Now, if you could conjure a chaos proof of how appointing a 43 year old female to local dog catcher in some province of Kazikstan resulted in the introduction of an abortion bill in Kentucky, then you are closer to showing a butterfly effect.

You current examples are simply voters voting for and getting stuff they wanted from those they voted for. If A, then B.
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Old 06-25-2019, 02:58 PM
 
Location: Cleaning CAT VOMIT out of radiators
2,228 posts, read 868,031 times
Reputation: 1654
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volobjectitarian View Post
You are referencing the butterfly effect and I suspect you aren't really familiar with how it works.

Voters directly voting for a thing is not a variable condition that leads to chaos expanding out over time. If new laws are Republican specific, and voters voted Republican specific, it is direct cause and effect, not chaos.

The butterfly effect is when a seemingly unrelated variable is altered to some degree and in an infinitely complex equation iterated some number of times, the effect of that previously considered unrelated thing has some dramatic downstream effect in the larger equation. As in, he butterfly flaps its wings in China and the tiny change in the local atmosphere, over time, results in a weather pattern that causes a tornado in Oklahoma.

What you are referencing is not chaos theory. It is simple cause and effect. Republican voters voted Republican house majorities in 13 states, and those Republican majorities enacted Republican friendly laws, exactly as the voters wished and expected. 2 + 2 = 4 isn't chaos, it's arithmetic.

Now, if you could conjure a chaos proof of how appointing a 43 year old female to local dog catcher in some province of Kazikstan resulted in the introduction of an abortion bill in Kentucky, then you are closer to showing a butterfly effect.

You current examples are simply voters voting for and getting stuff they wanted from those they voted for. If A, then B.
Chaos or order, I was simply demonstating how voting affects other peoples' lives, and the lives of the voters themselves. The voters for Bush(II) and Trump are, however indirectly, responsible for at least half of everything that has unfolded during their administrations. They set things in motion with their votes, ill-informed or otherwise. And those that voted for neither Bush II nor Trump have had to live with much of the consequences of those votes.

Even many who did vote for Trump - look at the farmers - they are now reaping what they sowed, as they are losing business as a result of their presidents tariffs on countries that historically bought their goods.

Perhaps next time they'll think, before voting for a bankrupt real estate tycoon and television show host for president!
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