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Old 08-14-2019, 12:09 PM
 
10,576 posts, read 7,103,578 times
Reputation: 4394

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
An inversion of the yield curve on US Treasuries is a very accurate predictor of recessions and it just inverted today. The one thing, and probably only thing, that Trump has going for him is the economy. If that goes south on him, which is now looking highly likely, he is going to be booted out of the White House.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yield...102034083.html



Yep...its usually the economy that is the big factor....and we are overdue for a recession. That said....I am more worried about the severity of it than I am feeling any joy of it possibly doing in Trump. Interest rates are almost at historical lows. There has already been a tax cut. The debt and deficit have both grown in the last 3 years. In other words.....the economy is on steroids already. That is what accounts for the economic performance since the recession. When the economy starts losing strength while still on high doses of steroids....what do you do to regain strength again? At some point in time the steroids are going to become extremely bad for your health in the long run....and at this point....we are near the "long run" of usage.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:11 PM
 
Location: The middle of nowhere
9,645 posts, read 4,436,860 times
Reputation: 8177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indentured Servant View Post
Yep...its usually the economy that is the big factor....and we are overdue for a recession. That said....I am more worried about the severity of it than I am feeling any joy of it possibly doing in Trump. Interest rates are almost at historical lows. There has already been a tax cut. The debt and deficit have both grown in the last 3 years. In other words.....the economy is on steroids already. That is what has the economic performance since the recession. When the economy starts loosing strength while still on high doses of steroids....what do you do next when you start losing strength again? At some point in time the steroids are going to become extremely bad for your health in the long run....and at this point....we are near the "long run" of usage.
This is my fear as well. This is likely going to be what 2008 would have been if not for the bank bailouts. We are likely going to be looking at 5-7 years with unemployment averaging over 10%. The Dow is likely going back below 10,000. We will see 1-2 years of steep GDP declines followed by moderate growth, but it will probably be the 2030s before we get anywhere close to full employment again.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:12 PM
 
Location: Columbia, SC
19,073 posts, read 10,462,862 times
Reputation: 7439
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
Really? We're looking at a very rough 5-7 years ahead for the USA. Everyone will either lose their job or somebody they know will. It doesn't matter if you are liberal, conservative, Christian or non-Christian. The next few years are going to be the most perilous economic years of our lifetimes and only one person is to blame; Donald Trump.
Sorry. There's no "sarcasm" font availble here.

I personally stand to take a beating in my 401k and IRA, but I pulled back out of stocks a few months ago to limit my exposure. Those still in the market are in for a rough ride. The devaluation of the yuan means that China cannot buy as much from America, even if they want to do so.

I lost 40% of everything I owned under Bush in 2008. I'm holding my breath for this one, but it doesn't look pretty right now.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:14 PM
 
12,353 posts, read 5,905,193 times
Reputation: 7259
Quote:
Originally Posted by uggabugga View Post
WSJ, 27 minutes ago:

"Poor Chinese and German Economic Data Fan Fears of Global Slowdown"
The Wall Street Journal has been pushing this "the sky is falling" rhetoric for a year now. They are convinced that China must get whatever China wants OR the world falls apart.

As for Maher and his fervent hopes for a Recession as the ONLY way to defeat President Trump - he has company in that "hope". I think most of them understand that the Trump Economy is so good that a Market Crash is their only real "hope". On the UP Side -- I have no doubt that TeamTrump is fully aware of what they want to do and is probably several steps ahead of them.

Keep in mind that these wild swings in the Market are not caused by Human Investors or even Human Analysts - they are Computer generated Algorithms.
#Algorithms don't write themselves.

NBC’s Richard Engel Sides With Maher on Hopes of Recession to Defeat Trump
'Short-term pain might be better than long-term destruction of the Constitution' |Washington Freebeacon


It's a serious concern -- Understand that these Leftists will do whatever they can to take down the President and that includes destruction of the US Economy .... or maybe worse.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:16 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
27,874 posts, read 16,234,213 times
Reputation: 10026
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZUMAN View Post
Amazing how dRATs cheer for the economy to go south. Of course they cheer for everything about the USA to go south.


BTW, Trump will leave office Jan 2025.
I seem to remember many people who said one was coming before Trump won suddenly going silent and defending the Trump economy. That isn't a coincidence at all, right?
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:19 PM
 
10,576 posts, read 7,103,578 times
Reputation: 4394
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
This is my fear as well. This is likely going to be what 2008 would have been if not for the bank bailouts. We are likely going to be looking at 5-7 years with unemployment averaging over 10%. The Dow is likely going back below 10,000. We will see 1-2 years of steep GDP declines followed by moderate growth, but it will probably be the 2030s before we get anywhere close to full employment again.
.



That is my fear as well. Our economy is debt driven and we have to keep taking bigger doses of debt to maintain our High (standard of living). One of these next recessions is going to result in a major overdose...if not the one coming. It's totally unsustainable.....and don't let a war break out.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:21 PM
 
11,318 posts, read 10,474,238 times
Reputation: 20977
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
An inversion of the yield curve on US Treasuries is a very accurate predictor of recessions and it just inverted today. The one thing, and probably only thing, that Trump has going for him is the economy. If that goes south on him, which is now looking highly likely, he is going to be booted out of the White House.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yield...102034083.html
Interesting that you posted on this topic. I was just reading an article ( https://www.thebalance.com/inverted-yield-curve-3305856 ) last night on the very same thing. My main interest was how it would affect real estate, though. Naturally, a recession in that sector would affect all other sectors related. I expect a normal drop periodically as I've lived through several of those but, hopefully, nothing like we saw ten years ago. After the last recession, I'm paying closer attention to that inverted curve.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:22 PM
 
Location: San Diego
5,687 posts, read 1,597,492 times
Reputation: 4160
Quote:
Originally Posted by sindey View Post
It's more like they are happy that their predictions of Trump not knowing what the heck he is doing rings true.
Predictions they have been making since before Trump was elected. And which have turned out wrong every. single. time.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:36 PM
 
Location: Ohio
20,516 posts, read 14,588,496 times
Reputation: 16736
Quote:
Originally Posted by rkcarguy View Post
I've been seeing and reading several articles that really seem like the media is trying to spin up a recession. Examples:

AP posted an article "Homebuilding sinks as apartment construction slips" in which it notes apartment starts slipping -9.4%. Read on in the fine print in the article where it's up 25% from last year, and single family construction is also up 7.4%.

CNBC posted an article "Bad sign for commercial real estate, the architecture business is slowing down", citing few new contracts. Read on where it says this doesn't include single family projects and that rental apartments are still strong.

Yes, those are all indicators of data manipulation for propaganda and disinformation purposes.

That's been the story of your Media since the 1950s.

First it was the CIA planting stories in the Media and now it's powerful people with an agenda planting stories.

Same play, different puppet-master.
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Old 08-14-2019, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
10,192 posts, read 3,101,637 times
Reputation: 7751
Quote:
Originally Posted by uggabugga View Post
who's suffering under this record low unemployment rate?
As I've noted before, the unemployment rate always bottoms out just prior to the start of a recession.
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