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Old 08-19-2019, 09:52 PM
 
7,285 posts, read 1,923,385 times
Reputation: 4352

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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
That is, the decline in confidence is a result of a recession, not the cause of it.
Consumer confidence peaked in Jan 2007 by Aug 2007 it was in free fall. Its a leading indicator. By Nov 2007 it fell below 100 indicating very pessimistic consumers. We were not in recession until Dec 2007. Recessions are not a leading indicator. Clearly you have it backwards.

In fact in Mar 2007 Bernanke famously said no recession was on the horizon. Yet consumer confidence was dropping every month.

https://journalstar.com/business/ber...62ec29c41.html
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Old 08-19-2019, 10:09 PM
 
18,575 posts, read 11,481,616 times
Reputation: 9810
Quote:
Originally Posted by KS_Referee View Post
It isn't spin. The US cannot afford to pay the interest on its debt with the government bonds that are maturing. That means there MUST be further deficit spending UNLESS there is serious and real cuts in spending (not just cuts in the growth of spending) and additional debt that will require more printing of money which is then loaned to the government with interest rates to be paid.


The ONLY thing I don't like about this being blamed on Trump is this has been going on for a long, long time.
Trump has made it way worse. Giving out tax cuts during a booming economic cycle takes away options when the cycle weakens. They talked about that, admitted it was true, then did it anyway. They said the tax cuts would pay for themselves - they haven't. The debt has gone up a trillion. And we say trillion like it's nothing. On top of that, Trump is handing out billions to farmers like he's Oprah. So we are borrowing money from China to pay farmers not to sell to China. No one seems to remember all the times Trump's businesses have gone bankrupt only this time, it's the country. We've become Trump Airlines.
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Old 08-19-2019, 10:10 PM
 
8,115 posts, read 2,864,930 times
Reputation: 3194
Media has far less power than POTUS on affecting economy. This is just stupid.
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Old 08-19-2019, 10:16 PM
 
Location: Ft. Myers
18,563 posts, read 11,731,380 times
Reputation: 39078
Quote:
Originally Posted by rkcarguy View Post
I've been seeing and reading several articles that really seem like the media is trying to spin up a recession. Examples:

AP posted an article "Homebuilding sinks as apartment construction slips" in which it notes apartment starts slipping -9.4%. Read on in the fine print in the article where it's up 25% from last year, and single family construction is also up 7.4%. I'm seeing this as only a net 2% slowdown in apartment starts with home buying up....a good thing in my economic view vs. apartments as more people are "moving on up".

CNBC posted an article "Bad sign for commercial real estate, the architecture business is slowing down", citing few new contracts. Read on where it says this doesn't include single family projects and that rental apartments are still strong. I work in construction and the only reason I can credit the few new contracts for architectural work is that they are already full...we're seeing drawings come in months and months late. I'd believe that retail storefronts are down as more businesses move to a online sales and shipping model, but the rest is hog wash.

Yet another article focused on manufacturing in Ohio and "how hard it was hit by Trumps Tariff's on China", citing some business of a handful of people that had to increase prices 25% because of the Chinese stuff they were peddling and might have to close. Then in the bottom of the article it went on to say that other manufacturing startups/restarts had resulted in hundreds of new jobs in the same town.

I could go on and on, but there is no need. The spin is obvious. You can hate Trump all you want, but the media messing with our economy and livelihood messes with all of us....unless you don't have a job already. A recession swallows billions of dollars in net worth, states cut education and emergency services spending, jobs are lost, families loose their homes, unemployment and food stamp draws swell and put our states and nation further in debt, the dollar sinks in values and other countries surge in and buy up our commodities driving prices higher for food and fuel while times are already bad....but that's ok, giving Trump a black eye is obviously more important. In the meantime the same liberal elite will be thrilled when they can buy up our foreclosed homes, repossessed cars, and stocks for 25 cents on the dollar AND you fall into their "safety net" apartment subsidized by the government.

I don't know, I bet Hillary is ruining the economy, just to get even with Trump. Those Clintons have magical powers , you know !
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Old 08-19-2019, 10:20 PM
 
8,115 posts, read 2,864,930 times
Reputation: 3194
Quote:
Originally Posted by don1945 View Post
I don't know, I bet Hillary is ruining the economy, just to get even with Trump. Those Clintons have magical powers , you know !
Yep. Them and unicorns.
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Old 08-20-2019, 02:27 PM
 
12,353 posts, read 3,126,838 times
Reputation: 5867
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight View Post
Bond inversions have preceded the last 6 recessions, we just had another. Maybe you have an indicator that says otherwise.
And just like climate change, no one can predict when it will happen - could be two years, could be six years. Don't get your knickers in a twist. I realize Demwits love misery and drama. They wouldn't know what to do if everything in their lives was great.


People selling gold want a recession.
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Old 08-20-2019, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
573 posts, read 79,640 times
Reputation: 244
Quote:
Originally Posted by vacoder View Post
Media has far less power than POTUS on affecting economy. This is just stupid.

You are correct it is stupid, but you have the other statement backwards.
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Old 08-20-2019, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Middle of the ocean
32,856 posts, read 20,809,746 times
Reputation: 47513
Um.... Trump is calling for a 1% rate drop AND quantitative easing..... that's pretty much saying "recession."
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Old 08-20-2019, 05:46 PM
 
Location: Long Island
34,613 posts, read 14,526,307 times
Reputation: 7457
Quote:
Originally Posted by KS_Referee View Post
It isn't spin. The US cannot afford to pay the interest on its debt with the government bonds that are maturing. That means there MUST be further deficit spending UNLESS there is serious and real cuts in spending (not just cuts in the growth of spending) and additional debt that will require more printing of money which is then loaned to the government with interest rates to be paid.


The ONLY thing I don't like about this being blamed on Trump is this has been going on for a long, long time.
I don't ever recall taking on this type of debt in a hot economy so yes I blame Trump and the GOP, this is 2019 not 2009.
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Old 08-20-2019, 05:54 PM
 
Location: Long Island
34,613 posts, read 14,526,307 times
Reputation: 7457
Quote:
Originally Posted by PilgrimsProgress View Post
And just like climate change, no one can predict when it will happen - could be two years, could be six years. Don't get your knickers in a twist. I realize Demwits love misery and drama. They wouldn't know what to do if everything in their lives was great.


People selling gold want a recession.
Yes its difficult to predict but many indicators point to the fact that there will be a downturn, The Wall Street Journal and many conservative publications say the same but the Trump faithful want to paint this as a conspiracy. I know many of his supporters don't like science or facts, best to just call it fake news or TDS when you cant put an argument together.
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