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Old 07-21-2019, 09:04 AM
 
1,523 posts, read 312,981 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kanonka View Post
For those who can still think by themselves without MSM guidance here are some facts:

1) Iranian oil exports were never under UN sanctions. And in 2016 all other UN sanctions were lifted up.
2) Syria is not under any UN sanctions.

Now, for those who don't understand difference between UN and unilateral sanctions:
UN sanctions are the only ones that can be (however remotely) considered as lawfully obligating for the country under sanctions. Unilateral sanctions are applicable only to the citizens and companies of countries that instituted them. For example, if country A issues unilateral sanctions against country B, it has jurisdiction only over citizens and companies of country A. It can send them to jail, confiscate their properties etc. But, if country C conducts any business with country B, then country A can do nothing. Well, lawfully, of course

So, the way things stand right now:
1) UK seizes Iranian tanker going to, as UK claims, to Syria. Since UK did not declare state of war with neither Iran or Syria, this act is qualified as piracy by international law. Why? Because there is no UN sanctions that could prevent such operation, and no unilateral sanctions can be applied in this case. Read this again, until you understand. To be clear - if tanker would have been flying any EU, or UK, or US flag, only then unilateral sanctions could have been applied. Since this was not the case, this seizing is an open act of piracy.
2) From now on, since act of piracy was conducted by a vessel flying UK flag, and UK govt openly admitted that it authorized the seizing, this makes - according to international law - any UK-flag bearing vessel a pirate vessel. I.e. every country on the planet now has a right to confiscate UK-flag bearing vessel and hang all crew members.

By the way, this applies only to vessels flying UK flag, not the vessels that are owned by UK companies. Someone in Tehran forgot about this nuance at first, so first they seized tanker owned by UK company, but flying Sweden flag. Then they corrected themselves - the did let go first tanker, but the second one is detained absolutely in accordance to international law, since it was flying UK flag.

But then why UK did it in a first place? Well, let's put aside the reason that UK was always a pirate state, and look at the economic reasons - the only ones that really spin the world.
Many did hear about shale oil. Let's put aside all the environmental damage that occurs from it's production - oil companies never cared about that. But what does matter is that to be marginally profitable, oil cost should be over $80/bar - that's the self-cost of shale oil. But as you know, for last few years crude oil prices were hovering in $50-60/bar range. Western oil companies that ventured shale oil drilling accumulated huge debt. They are on the brink of collapse, and would not survive past the end of this year - all their credit options are already exhausted by now. So, the goal of US and UK is to move crude oil prices to a $100-$120/bar. Price over that range will destroy US and UK economy, but current price will destroy US and UK oil companies. Question is, how the target price can be achieved? It is estimated that full-blown war with Iran will send prices over $300/bar. So, it's not an option. But, some short-term assault on Iran with careful destruction of its oil fields will move oil price just the right range. That's why US and UK are actively trying to create casus belli for such assault. So far it doesn't work since Iran stays within international law bounds.

I'm pretty sure we soon will see some more US/UK provocations.
Best comment I have read in this forum in a long time.

It is about control. US/UK want to control the price to their liking and who gets to buy or not. That's their definition of free market.

I have always said they don't want a full war with Iran, just to put enough pressure to control the oil supply/price.
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Old 07-21-2019, 09:05 AM
 
Location: Great Britain
11,921 posts, read 4,072,326 times
Reputation: 7378
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
Why would Iran care what the EU wants? The EU is not the UN. Anything except for UN actions are unilateral actions and thus non-binding.

No, the EU doesn't buy Iranian oil, thus it breaches the agreement. Any EU efforts have been just empty words. Either they buy Iranian oil or they don't. It's that simple.
The European nations have been trying to compromise and have been very patient with Iran in terms of a nuclear deal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling

The SUPPOSEDLY Iranian attacks on oil tankers only started after the breach of the agreement by the West, thus it is none of Iran's fault.
The US withdrew from the agreement and not the UK or West as a whole.

However Iran itself is not sticking to the agreement.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling
There have been nuclear inspectors in Iran for years, and they all confirmed again and again that Iran was not breaking the agreement. Iran only started to break it in response to the West's violation of the agreement, which is totally understandable. Why would they continue to give without getting anything in return?
Again the West hasn't broken the agreement, the only country to withdraw was the US.

However other nations may now look to leave the agreement given Iran's recent actions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling

Why would Iran stop to support its allies?! Allies stick together. The nuclear agreement did not say anything about Iran's foreign policies. Nobody can expect Iran to be pro-Western after all the attacks by the West and its proxies for decades.
The UK is trying to negotiate with Iran, and other nations have tried to be reasonable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling
The ball is in the West's court because the West needs to force Israel to agree to a settlement of the Middle-East conflict that Palestinians can also live with. As long as that conflict is not solved in such a way that makes everyone happy, there will not be peace as Iran's foreign policies revolve around the Palestinians, apart from its opposition to Saudi-Arabia, which we should actually be part of if we had any morals and backbone.
This is not about Palestine, this is about uranium production in Iran.


If Iranb carry on down the current path, the current nuclear deal is going to end up being scrapped, and Trump's National Security Advisor, John Bolton who is well known for his hawkish outlook, are going to put pressure on Trump to take military action.

The most likey military action would probably be the destruction of Iranian ports, airfields, military bases including the Revolutionary Guard and their boats, radar sites, power stations, bridges and many other critical national infrastructure and Government buildings.

Iran also continues to walk a fine line in terms of Israel, who are convinced Iran's nuclear plans are very much aimed at Israel, whilst Iran's enemies such as Saudi Arabia also have concerns.

If Iran wants a better future than it's past then I suggest it negotiates and stops trying to cause problems and goad nations such as the US.

As I said in terms of negotiations and a peaceful settlement the ball is in Iran's court, as for a military fight with the US there is only going to be one winner and it won't be Iran.
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Old 07-21-2019, 09:10 AM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
21,685 posts, read 19,420,873 times
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What you say is wrong. Europe ceased to buy Iranian oil long before Iran started to violate the agreement in return - and after several warnings. After all, exporting oil is all Iran cares about. They don't care about Europe's empty words.
To Iran the West is a single union that can't be trusted. And rightly so, I totally understand Iranians.
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Old 07-21-2019, 09:13 AM
 
Location: Great Britain
11,921 posts, read 4,072,326 times
Reputation: 7378
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
What you say is wrong. Europe ceased to buy Iranian oil long before Iran started to violate the agreement in return - and after several warnings. After all, exporting oil is all Iran cares about. They don't care about Europe's empty words.
To Iran the West is a single union that can't be trusted. And rightly so, I totally understand Iranians.
There were UN Sanctions until 2016, however sanctions are now back after the US pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran, however most of the other nations inclding the UK have been committed to working with Iran to have santions removed, and have been critical of Trump's actions.

Sanctions against Iran - Wikipedia

Iran nuclear deal framework - Wikipedia

New leak claims Trump scrapped Iran nuclear deal 'to spite Obama' - BBC News
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Old 07-21-2019, 09:16 AM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
21,685 posts, read 19,420,873 times
Reputation: 8599
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World View Post
There were UN Sanctions until 2016.

Sanctions against Iran - Wikipedia

So? They ended years ago because of the agreement. Iran didn't break the agreement according to more than a dozen reports from the nuclear watchdog. Yet, the US broke the agreement anyway, and the EU follow suit while claiming it didn't. Then Iran started to break the agreement, too. The chronology is that simple...
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Old 07-21-2019, 09:17 AM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
21,685 posts, read 19,420,873 times
Reputation: 8599
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World View Post
There were UN Sanctions until 2016, however sanctions are now back after the US pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran.

Sanctions against Iran - Wikipedia

Iran nuclear deal framework - Wikipedia



But the new sanctions are not UN sanctions anymore. They are mere unilateral sanctions.
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Old 07-21-2019, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Great Britain
11,921 posts, read 4,072,326 times
Reputation: 7378
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
But the new sanctions are not UN sanctions anymore. They are mere unilateral sanctions.
Most of the other nations inclding the UK have been committed to working with Iran to have santions removed, and have been critical of Trump's actions.

New leak claims Trump scrapped Iran nuclear deal 'to spite Obama' - BBC News
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Old 07-21-2019, 09:27 AM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
21,685 posts, read 19,420,873 times
Reputation: 8599
The US is a rogue state that doesn't care for laws and agreements. What makes you think the fascists in Washington will change their minds?! What the UK wants is irrelevant as the UK has no weight anymore. Also, its proximity to the US is a huge problem for the country's reputation and credibility.
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Old 07-21-2019, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Great Britain
11,921 posts, read 4,072,326 times
Reputation: 7378
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
The US is a rogue state that doesn't care for laws and agreements. What makes you think the fascists in Washington will change their minds?! What the UK wants is irrelevant as the UK has no weight anymore. Also, its proximity to the US is a huge problem for the country's reputation and credibility.
Iran is acting like a rogue state, and if the UK is so irrelevant then we can just go back to sanctions.

As for not much weight, HMS Duncan a 1 Billion Anti Aircraft Destroyer, about to arrive in the region along with other military resources. Whilst Britain maintains a military presense in Bahrain and the UAE.

We also have four trident nuclear submarines and two large 65,000 ton aircraft carriers entering service.

We also have a number of defence pacts including NATO and joint forces with the French, who have supported Britains current position.

Germany and France condemn Iran′s seizure of British tanker | DW

Combined Joint Expeditionary Force - Wikipedia

The Iranian Navy is so impressive by contrast with it's Revolutionary Guard Speedboats.

Last edited by Brave New World; 07-21-2019 at 10:24 AM..
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Old 07-21-2019, 10:21 AM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
21,685 posts, read 19,420,873 times
Reputation: 8599
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World View Post
Iran is acting like a rogue state, and if the UK is so irrelevant then we can just go back to sanctions.

As for not much weight, HMS Duncan a 1 Billion Anti Aircraft Destroyer, about to arrive in the region along with other military resources. Whilst Britain maintains a military presense in Bahrain and the UAE.

We also have four trident nuclear submarines and two large 65,000 ton aircraft carriers entering service.

We also have a number of defence paqcts including NATO and joint forces with the French.
How would all that have any impact on the fascists in Washington?! It doesn't...
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