U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 08-26-2019, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
72,972 posts, read 85,092,007 times
Reputation: 43028

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
I don't think most polls lean one way or the other. But most polls don't count, either, because they don't qualify their audience.

Rasmussen does qualify their audience. They talk to likely voters.
Of course another reason polls can be pretty useless is, not only do they often not qualify the persons but I have it happen to me, where after just one of two questions whomever is doing the polling just says thnk you and the interview is over. That is proof to me, I was not going to give them the answers they were looking for. This is why they appear fixed.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 08-26-2019, 03:21 PM
 
9,401 posts, read 9,496,578 times
Reputation: 29566
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
Of course another reason polls can be pretty useless is, not only do they often not qualify the persons but I have it happen to me, where after just one of two questions whomever is doing the polling just says thnk you and the interview is over. That is proof to me, I was not going to give them the answers they were looking for. This is why they appear fixed.
I don't expect Trump supporters to give in. However, for the record, the following is correct:

1. Realclearpolitics average said that Clinton would win the popular vote in 2016 by 3%. She actually won the popular vote by 2% or 3,000,000 popular votes. So, yes, despite all the hoopla claiming that "the polls were wrong" they were actually pretty accurate. What they couldn't factor into it was the electoral college which does not depend on popular vote to determine a winner. Trump is president because of 77,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that tilted those votes in his direction.

2. In 2018, the Realclearpolitics average on generic congressional vote gave democrat candidates for Congress an 8% margin. In reality, the winning margin by democrats was about 9% nationally.

3. Rasmussen actually predicted in 2018 that the republicans would have a margin of 2% in generic congressional vote. Of course, this was an utterly baseless prediction.

Rasmussen is like Fox News. If you don't like what the real news is you can simply watch something designed to appeal to your group.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-26-2019, 04:05 PM
 
Location: Florida
23,049 posts, read 9,887,423 times
Reputation: 18994
Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
I don't expect Trump supporters to give in. However, for the record, the following is correct:

1. Realclearpolitics average said that Clinton would win the popular vote in 2016 by 3%. She actually won the popular vote by 2% or 3,000,000 popular votes. So, yes, despite all the hoopla claiming that "the polls were wrong" they were actually pretty accurate. What they couldn't factor into it was the electoral college which does not depend on popular vote to determine a winner. Trump is president because of 77,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that tilted those votes in his direction.

2. In 2018, the Realclearpolitics average on generic congressional vote gave democrat candidates for Congress an 8% margin. In reality, the winning margin by democrats was about 9% nationally.

3. Rasmussen actually predicted in 2018 that the republicans would have a margin of 2% in generic congressional vote. Of course, this was an utterly baseless prediction.

Rasmussen is like Fox News. If you don't like what the real news is you can simply watch something designed to appeal to your group.
Rassmussen has been way off on everything--and has a C+ rating on 538. They were so positive Romney would win. They even had the GOP Congress ahead and winning, before the blue wave in November 2018. They tell the GOP what they want with the polls so they will keep getting paid, rather than tell them the truth--like Trump.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-26-2019, 04:05 PM
 
415 posts, read 70,902 times
Reputation: 126
New Harris poll has Trump at 46 percent.

Probably his true approval rating
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-26-2019, 04:07 PM
 
415 posts, read 70,902 times
Reputation: 126
What's Harris rated at?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-26-2019, 04:29 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
22,232 posts, read 14,884,529 times
Reputation: 16493
There are 3 thresholds the candidates must reach to be included in the third debate: Polls, Donors, and Qualified.

There are the candidates who have met the threshold for the 3rd debate so far. (Others may meet the threshold before the debate.)

polls donors qualified

Joe Biden 14 ✓ ✓ ✓
Pete Buttigieg 14 ✓ ✓ ✓
Kamala Harris 14 ✓ ✓ ✓
Bernie Sanders 14 ✓ ✓ ✓
Elizabeth Warren 14 ✓ ✓ ✓
Cory Booker 11 ✓ ✓ ✓
Beto O’Rourke 9 ✓ ✓ ✓
Amy Klobuchar 6 ✓ ✓ ✓
Julián Castro 5 ✓ ✓ ✓
Andrew Yang 5 ✓ ✓ ✓

All the others have failed to meet at least one of the three thresholds.

While the top 5 may differ in popularity from poll to poll, realistically, they are all relatively still neck and neck in the race as the top 5.

The others who fail to make the 3rd debate will begin dropping out if they don't have some sudden leap over the threshold hurdles. It's like the high jump for them all. With each jump, the bar goes higher.

The real event begins in the primaries of course. Right now, all this is only the preliminary qualifying rounds.

Read the details here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...on-the-bubble/

Last edited by banjomike; 08-26-2019 at 04:56 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-26-2019, 04:57 PM
 
4,241 posts, read 4,300,879 times
Reputation: 2748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westie15 View Post
What's Harris rated at?

C+ at 538 it appears. Modest Republican bias in predictions.




Monmouth College- A+. Modest Democratic bias in predictions.


(Ratings biased on several measures.)

Last edited by NW Crow; 08-26-2019 at 05:07 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-26-2019, 08:01 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,143 posts, read 15,717,272 times
Reputation: 3999
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
I don't think most polls lean one way or the other. But most polls don't count, either, because they don't qualify their audience.

Rasmussen does qualify their audience. They talk to likely voters.

How do they decide who a likely voter is? Generally most pollsters will qualify a likely voter around Labor Day or so of the year of the election. Outside of that it can be very difficult to say who is a likely voter and who isn't.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-26-2019, 08:06 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,143 posts, read 15,717,272 times
Reputation: 3999
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
come on you know the answer to that: the ones who are conducted by college and universities: any gallop has always been considered leaning left for starters. I could probably name a lot of others but what' the point?
Just because a particular pollster is from a University or a College doesn't mean the poll leans left. The results of a particular pollster compared to the results of the election actually determines that. As far as Gallup goes, they haven't done as much polling in recent years. In 2012 they were one of two pollsters that had Romney winning the PV, Scotty boy Rasmussen was the other.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-27-2019, 08:14 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
14,353 posts, read 8,961,507 times
Reputation: 20835
Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
I don't expect Trump supporters to give in. However, for the record, the following is correct:

1. Realclearpolitics average said that Clinton ..................
At that point (and I invite you to go back and look) nearly all polls were using "likely voters". After the election they abandoned that model and are now going with "adults" (??) or "registered voters".
I have no idea why.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top