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Old 08-27-2019, 08:16 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
14,318 posts, read 8,942,525 times
Reputation: 20773

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
How do they decide who a likely voter is? Generally most pollsters will qualify a likely voter around Labor Day or so of the year of the election. Outside of that it can be very difficult to say who is a likely voter and who isn't.
Everyone knows who the likely voters are.
https://www.people-press.org/2006/10...oesnt-and-why/
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Old 08-27-2019, 10:02 AM
 
4,228 posts, read 4,290,224 times
Reputation: 2734
Rasmussen now has Trump at -4 disapproval in their latest poll.


Recent average of such measures at RCP is almost -11.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html
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Old 08-29-2019, 10:41 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,887 posts, read 11,850,601 times
Reputation: 4418
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
come on you know the answer to that: the ones who are conducted by college and universities: any gallop has always been considered leaning left for starters. I could probably name a lot of others but what' the point?
you label every poll you dont like as left leaning. How many times does the art of polling need to be discussed with you.

Interestingly enough, Gallop is one of the few polls that over samples republicans at 0.9.......and because of it, only has a 71% rate of predicting elections correctly.
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Old 08-29-2019, 10:45 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,887 posts, read 11,850,601 times
Reputation: 4418
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
Everyone knows who the likely voters are.
https://www.people-press.org/2006/10...oesnt-and-why/
"likely voter" is slightly different for every polling group.

Voted in the last 3 elections(midterm '14, general '16, midterm '18) is the most common standard.

The problem there is obviously that midterms turnout is never equal to the general so obviously a likely general election voter is not necessarily going to show up here if they skip midterms.
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Old 08-30-2019, 12:44 AM
Status: "eDgy as h*ck" (set 6 days ago)
 
Location: Colatown, South Carolina
7,946 posts, read 4,687,509 times
Reputation: 9409
It's a poll. Why do I care where his numbers are day to day?
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Old 08-30-2019, 01:50 AM
 
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
10,589 posts, read 8,993,916 times
Reputation: 12333
The margin of error in these polls is important to judge their reliability.
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Old 09-02-2019, 02:26 PM
 
4,228 posts, read 4,290,224 times
Reputation: 2734
Rasmussen's latest approval poll (out today) has him at -13. It has been 8 months since it was worse according to them. (And at earlier times it was much worse.) He first hit -13 less than 2 months into his Presidential term.

Last edited by NW Crow; 09-02-2019 at 02:35 PM..
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Old 09-02-2019, 04:53 PM
 
415 posts, read 69,906 times
Reputation: 126
Rasmussen seems fairly accurate, though dumbocrats think it's to the right of Jesse Helms
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Old 09-02-2019, 06:52 PM
 
4,228 posts, read 4,290,224 times
Reputation: 2734
Rasmussen seems fairly accurate... now that they have fallen back in line with the bulk of polls.



I know how far right and a servant of corporations Jesse Helms was (especially banking and tobacco, both of whom employed him earlier in his career). I worked for a year back when to try to beat him.
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Old 09-03-2019, 08:54 AM
 
Location: Texas
35,894 posts, read 19,786,040 times
Reputation: 21459
Rasmussen...

Yep...

They're the ones who called 2012 for Romney "handily" on the day before the election.

Going Out on a Limb: Romney Beats Obama, Handily - Rasmussen Reports®
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