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Old 10-03-2019, 06:59 PM
 
3,517 posts, read 4,438,345 times
Reputation: 2304

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Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyRider View Post
Somebody has this on clipboard for quick cut and paste anytime Trump's polling goes up.
Humorously- I do all but clipboard a sentiment for every posting about polls. But I do so regardless of which party or issue they favor. That post is generally 'a lead does not exist unless it is outside margin of error.' In this case that does not apply for either side.


The issue here is that this was an online poll (which are notoriously less accurate) and that they weighted to come up with the results. The second item could be an issue because we are in a period that could be much like the 90s when the South moved noticeable towards Rs even when voters were registered and identified as Democrats. At the moment huge swaths of suburbanites and Westerners that have been Rs are trending Dem. The question is if that is longer term like the realignment in the South or shorter term like Indiana/NC going Dem in 2008 or Massachusetts electing an R Senator after Kennedy's death.


As I posted earlier- if the uptick for Trump is entirely in the safest D states/districts it will not impact how Democrats and swing state/district Rs approach the current controversies. But if Tillis, Gardner, and Collins want to go all in with a vigorous defense of Trump and attacking whistleblowers and investigators, please proceed...
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Old 10-03-2019, 07:14 PM
 
17,362 posts, read 4,599,550 times
Reputation: 11969
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
True the polls are inaccurate and far understate Trump's support.....the fact that even the Fake News polls that conspire with Democrats to achieve their common goals show Trump ticking up in popularity whilst the Dims make up a bunch of lies and whistle lies to cover up for the corruption of Joe Biden and other Democrats.
So somehow they were within 2% for ALL the other Presidents of the past but yet the skills of 538 and AI and putting together all the polls with weighting is FAR off.

That's fantastic.

You can make some real points that aren't "alternative facts" like "I think Trump support will solidify near an election" but that's different from saying that thousands of polls combined aren't within a couple points.

The trend of the polls is also accurate - whether up or down.

I know there is a tendency to be in backwards world these days - down is up, democracy and free trade are bad, the rule of law and norms are bad, journalism is bad and Reality TV is accurate...but, c'mon.

One has to use reason...to understand that no one really cares about Joe Biden. Biden isn't the issue although we know you attack dogs would go after Ghandi himself if he seemed like a threat to your master.

The issue is a BIG ONE. Perhaps the largest in the history of this nation. We have NEVER had a POTUS impeached and removed from office in our history. We have only ONCE had an elected President impeached and that - you can admit - was for nothing (Clinton).

This is then the first time in US History where an elected sitting Presidents is being considered for ACTUAL Impeachment for real transgressions against the Nation. That's BIG. Bigger than Joe Biden or name calling.

If he does get removed from office - which is very unlikely considering the treasonous Senate - it would be the first in the history of the Republic.

Try to focus on the log jam rolling down the river, not the speck of sawdust on the floor.
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Old 10-03-2019, 08:23 PM
 
4,228 posts, read 4,290,224 times
Reputation: 2734
Things can change but Trump's approval rating has only been 49% or better in 7 of the last 125 polls over the last 6 months. The recent average is 43%.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:16 PM
 
Location: Washington State
19,536 posts, read 10,128,619 times
Reputation: 16652
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
So somehow they were within 2% for ALL the other Presidents of the past but yet the skills of 538 and AI and putting together all the polls with weighting is FAR off.

That's fantastic.

You can make some real points that aren't "alternative facts" like "I think Trump support will solidify near an election" but that's different from saying that thousands of polls combined aren't within a couple points.

The trend of the polls is also accurate - whether up or down.

I know there is a tendency to be in backwards world these days - down is up, democracy and free trade are bad, the rule of law and norms are bad, journalism is bad and Reality TV is accurate...but, c'mon.

One has to use reason...to understand that no one really cares about Joe Biden. Biden isn't the issue although we know you attack dogs would go after Ghandi himself if he seemed like a threat to your master.

The issue is a BIG ONE. Perhaps the largest in the history of this nation. We have NEVER had a POTUS impeached and removed from office in our history. We have only ONCE had an elected President impeached and that - you can admit - was for nothing (Clinton).

This is then the first time in US History where an elected sitting Presidents is being considered for ACTUAL Impeachment for real transgressions against the Nation. That's BIG. Bigger than Joe Biden or name calling.

If he does get removed from office - which is very unlikely considering the treasonous Senate - it would be the first in the history of the Republic.

Try to focus on the log jam rolling down the river, not the speck of sawdust on the floor.
I'm laser focused on the truth and good governance which President Trump is delivering both in spades.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:28 PM
 
942 posts, read 462,500 times
Reputation: 907
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
I'm laser focused on the truth and good governance which President Trump is delivering both in spades.
What good governance? His campaign manager is sitting in prison and his cabinet is nowhere close to the "best people" he promised. The only good cabinet officials (Mattis, Coats, McMaster) are long gone.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:31 PM
 
Location: Central IL
15,592 posts, read 8,924,528 times
Reputation: 36697
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ralph_N_1962 View Post
every poll is weighted and most are weight in favor of democrats if you actually look at the methodology
Pray educate us on exactly how that is? Preferably a scientific source relative to survey methodology.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:33 PM
 
Location: Central IL
15,592 posts, read 8,924,528 times
Reputation: 36697
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geeo View Post
He's at 90% at trailer parks all across the south. They want to take their country back, dammit! I would use the language of the president of the united states, but it would get me banned. So nice for the children to hear.
Interesting that both ends of the wealth spectrum are Trumpsters....the poor because they truly believe their lot will be better because Trump actually cares about them...and the rich because they know he's full of ish but don't care as long as he tilts all taxes and regulations in their favor. Equally pathetic.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:48 PM
Status: "Make Orwell fiction again" (set 16 days ago)
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
31,886 posts, read 14,279,217 times
Reputation: 22865
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
According to polling done by The Hill, President Trump's approval rating has climbed to the highest level this year in the aftermath of the Democrat's politically motivated "Impeachment inquiry".

The goal of this effort by the Dems was of course to try to drive President Trump's approval ratings down, and that quite substantially, because they apparently do not believe they are likely to be able to beat him at the polls in November 2020.

This politically motivated weaponization of the impeachment process appears to be backfiring on them. Yet again.
That's not the latest HarrisX poll, the Sept 30-Oct 3 has him at 45% approval 55% disapproval. A big fat 4 point drop from the Sept 28-29th poll you are discussing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...rs=false&gid=0
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Old 10-03-2019, 11:20 PM
 
942 posts, read 462,500 times
Reputation: 907
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
That's not the latest HarrisX poll, the Sept 30-Oct 3 has him at 45% approval 55% disapproval. A big fat 4 point drop from the Sept 28-29th poll you are discussing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...rs=false&gid=0
This just shows that opinions aren't changing much regardless of what happens. I believe that many pundits are correct in that the election result will be 100% based on partisan turnout and Trump's actions will change very few opinions (most registered independents vote for the same political party every election).
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Old 10-03-2019, 11:31 PM
 
774 posts, read 235,412 times
Reputation: 2203
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
If the Democrat's "impeachment inquiry" attempt to harass President Trump out of office was in any way achieving its desired objective, his level of support from his base would be falling and falling noticeably. Instead, it is going up.

This latest politically motivated effort by the Democrat left to oust the duly elected President of the United States by non-electoral means is not having the desired effect. It is not working.
Also recall the article about the increase in donations to both the Trump Campaign and the RNC both had a boost in donations. I was also compelled to donate a few times in small donations. I love that most donations since the impeachment inquiry have been in small donations. Says a lot!
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