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Old Today, 08:00 AM
 
Location: Barrington
46,274 posts, read 34,246,694 times
Reputation: 15425

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hesychios View Post
The presence of illegal immigrants on a border state undoubtedly drives up the Trump vote, so it is a big negative, not a plus for any Democrat. Don't expect them to line up at the polls waiting for free chickens after making that trek. The last thing people like that need or want is exposure. Aside from that, Mexicans in general are rather conservative and family oriented, industrious and very entrepreneurial, great qualities for a traditional Republican (and the party has always had a toehold in the Mexican American vote, even after all of the race baiting).

This crazy idea about illegals being recruited into the Democratic party reminds me of those Catholics who used to think that Mexican immigration would save the church from plummeting membership, only to see that the larger percentage of Latin American immigrants were practically unchurched already and many joined Pentecostal and other Protestant churches after arrival. Perception misses reality bigly.

You of all people know that aliens don't vote, legal or illegal. Hell, more American citizens who are eligible didn't vote than voted for either major party candidate in the last presidential election! That includes an enormous number of Hispanics. If we were to count the 'no' votes as a choice, the group that supported Trump would be a distant third.

231,556,622 eligible voters

46.9% didn't vote
25.6% voted for Clinton
25.5% voted for Trump
1.7% voted for Johnson

The penalties for casting an illegal vote can be very severe (illegal immigrants could be deported after jail), the rewards virtually nil. It's like buying a lottery ticket, almost no chance of affecting the outcome and no direct benefit. BTW, newcomers to the country often have difficulty following the ins and out of American politics, coming from an experience totally different.

Perhaps you think that blatant lies and exaggerations, simplified logic, help your narrative, but it just looks silly.
If ď I did not voteĒ was a candidate it would have won in a landslide, nearly everywhere.

Which candidate can motivate the ď I donít voteĒ block to register and then get off the couch and put down the phone and cast a vote wins the popular vote. As we know, the state matters in terms of the Electoral College.

There are more Independents than either Republicans or Democrats. And some of them donít make up their mind until they are in the voting booth.

Most people do not attend political rallies. Most people do not donate to political parties, candidates or PACs.

Most people donít watch cable news.
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Old Today, 08:01 AM
 
8,814 posts, read 10,904,249 times
Reputation: 12875
Republican party doesn't realize America has changed and is still dramatically changing, with or without their consent. If they don't become more inclusive and stop letting Idiot Trump speak for them, alienating vast pools of voters, I guess they'll get the reaction next November.
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Old Today, 08:03 AM
 
10,785 posts, read 10,926,187 times
Reputation: 5312
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nanny Goat View Post
Republican party doesn't realize America has changed and is still dramatically changing, with or without their consent. If they don't become more inclusive and stop letting Idiot Trump speak for them, alienating vast pools of voters, I guess they'll get the reaction next November.
2018 was a wake-up call
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Old Today, 08:08 AM
 
8,814 posts, read 10,904,249 times
Reputation: 12875
Quote:
Originally Posted by chopchop0 View Post
2018 was a wake-up call
Right. Wake up call. I think they pushed the snooze alarm though.
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Old Today, 08:10 AM
 
Location: CA
4,344 posts, read 1,881,031 times
Reputation: 5606
I thought it was supposed to go blue in 2016.
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Old Today, 08:13 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,065 posts, read 15,538,765 times
Reputation: 3972
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.4eb5dbaac4f4

A couple articles, including a good one at 538, are addressing this.

Not to say it's all going to happen in one election, but it is well underway. I think 3 GOP Congress Critters are resigning because their districts are likely to go Blue (Hillary actually won them!) and they see the writing on the wall.

Odds still favor Orange Man for POTUS, but the House members from TX are likely to swing more blue each election and it is going to be difficult for the state to have the Rabid Effect it has has in the past on DC Politics because "For the People" means that their representatives should be listened to.

"Recent Republican congressional retirements have stoked party concerns, particularly the surprising Thursday announcement by a rising star, Rep. Will Hurd, that he would not seek reelection in his highly competitive district"

"A Quinnipiac poll released in June found that 48 percent of Texans approved of Trumpís job performance while 49 percent said they disapproved. That poll also found that Trump is effectively tied in Texas with several of the top contenders in the Democratic race."

I'm not predicting a Trump loss there....but, wow, the GOP is going to have to spend, spend, spend in places that it can usually overlook and that's not going to help them any with the national scene.

"Cruz said those figures should alarm Republicans nationally about Democratic turnout in 2020 "

Cruz may be a horrible person....but one thing he is not is stupid.

This is a state that discussed leaving the Union recently.....this sheds some light on how big of a deal this is. I suppose we might hear talk about the state breaking into pieces next as I cannot imagine that the Establishment will take this sitting down!
Of the three retirements, one district (TX-11) is still ultra safe Republican. The other two Olsen's TX-22 and Hurd's TX-23 are certainly competitive. Clinton did win TX-23, Trump won TX-22, but by a significantly smaller margin than Romney won it by, and trended more in the Cruz/O'Rourke race.


Texas is still a Republican state and I do not see Trump losing it, but he might need to spend $$ and resources there. The bigger problem for Republicans in Texas has to do with the House as a bunch of the formerly safe Republican seats have been trending rapidly Democratic.
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Old Today, 08:13 AM
 
37,199 posts, read 16,508,475 times
Reputation: 10046
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nanny Goat View Post
Republican party doesn't realize America has changed and is still dramatically changing, with or without their consent. If they don't become more inclusive and stop letting Idiot Trump speak for them, alienating vast pools of voters, I guess they'll get the reaction next November.
What utter nonsense! Since when aren't Trump and his supporters inclusive of every law abiding, pro-America person?

Change isn't always a positive thing either especially when you are talking policies. Trump is not an idiot nor is he alienating a vast pool of voters. The only ones he is alienating are those that aren't either of the above in my first paragraph and who cares about them? They don't have the best interests of our nation at heart anyway.
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Old Today, 08:18 AM
 
Location: Lee County, NC
2,256 posts, read 728,837 times
Reputation: 2599
Quote:
Originally Posted by neko_mimi View Post
I thought it was supposed to go blue in 2016.
The Dems have been talking about turning Texas blue for decades. Still hasn't happened with the exception of Austin.

Might it happen in the future? With all the transplants coming from New York, California and places abroad, there's a good chance it might. That is several election cycles away though.
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Old Today, 08:31 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,065 posts, read 15,538,765 times
Reputation: 3972
Quote:
Originally Posted by somebodyfromnc View Post
The Dems have been talking about turning Texas blue for decades. Still hasn't happened with the exception of Austin.

Might it happen in the future? With all the transplants coming from New York, California and places abroad, there's a good chance it might. That is several election cycles away though.
Although I would agree it isn't quite there yet, it isn't just Austin, it is Houston, Dallas, and to a lesser extent their suburbs, (the suburban areas are for the most part still Republican, but considerably less so than they use to be). There has been an increasing Urban/Rural Divide and much of Texas's growth is in its urban and suburban areas that have been trending Democratic in some cases at a rapid pace.
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Old Today, 09:07 AM
 
38,484 posts, read 15,081,662 times
Reputation: 24840
Quote:
Originally Posted by chopchop0 View Post
More right wing fake news. Trump's election commission got disbanded because they found no evidence to support that.

Of course Republicans did commit election fraud in North Carolina
The RW guy (Phillips?) who was on all the talk shows claiming to have developed an app that identified 5,000 who voted illegally has since disappeared.

Turns out he was a con artist who has pulled various scams in the past. So much so that he is no longer able to do business in Texas.

Imagine being such a con artist that Texas drew the line.

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