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Old 08-27-2019, 02:13 PM
 
Location: Austin
12,494 posts, read 7,114,393 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post

We are just dumb enough (like me!) to vote 3rd party a lot...
I doubt your conclusion.

anesthsiaMD is smart, not dumb, and republican based on his posts.
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Old 08-27-2019, 02:14 PM
 
Location: Northern NJ/Amagansett, NY
11,362 posts, read 10,375,392 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Yeah, long term avg but Bush got 19% and Mccain 22% and, as you know, all voters are becoming more independent.......so unless the GOP comes up with something different then their far-right turn I don't see 25% going GOP.

We are just dumb enough (like me!) to vote 3rd party a lot...
And Romney got 30%, and he was more recent than McCain. Trump got 24%. Reagan and the other Bush got 35%.

And as I said, I dont know if they will be leaving the Democratic Party in droves, either. But that poster made it seem so far fetched for a Jew to vote republican. I know plenty of Jews that vote republican.
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Old 08-27-2019, 02:21 PM
 
4,047 posts, read 814,683 times
Reputation: 2870
Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
You're forgetting about the prominent Dem antisemites. They're not afraid whatsoever to publicly express their hatred of Jews.
That's because (many) liberal Jews are so hateful toward Republicans - just look at the derision revealed on this thread - that prominent Dems feel secure they can get away with some awful behavior regarding Jews and still retain their vote.

It's a calculation. They fear that the antisemitic radicals - the Farrakhan followers, fhe Omar apologists, etc., will get angry if Dems take a strong stand against antisemitism, and it may cost them the anti-Jew vote.
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Old 08-27-2019, 02:40 PM
 
16,821 posts, read 4,413,490 times
Reputation: 11731
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD View Post
And Romney got 30%, and he was more recent than McCain. Trump got 24%. Reagan and the other Bush got 35%.

And as I said, I dont know if they will be leaving the Democratic Party in droves, either. But that poster made it seem so far fetched for a Jew to vote republican. I know plenty of Jews that vote republican.
Sure, even 20% is a lot....100's of thousands. I have one Jewish friend who is a lefty but he votes Republican because his business does biz with the Republican administration of his city.

Add in all the Orthodox....who definitely skew the results some. I think there are two main variables

1. The Candidate - Romney is obviously more palatable for a Jewish business type (being that he is/was Wall Street and venture capital, etc.) and Mormons are not considered to to be "religion above country". He also is a moderate and, in fact, won the Gov. in my state - during which term Gay Marriage and Universal health care were passed.....that's a far shot from the Trump of today!

2. Trump got the 24% along with many other votes as "give him a shot"....which, now (2018) we can see is long over. I doubt he will get 20% of the vote in 2020.

History is no indication here since the Jewish population is becoming more secular, younger and probably even more liberal than before. My thinking is that, without the Fundie Jewish vote, the GOP would be lucky to ever hit even 15%, which is really weak. That's the weakest of any ethics group I know of other than black folks (unless I am missing something)...
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Old 08-27-2019, 04:03 PM
 
9,671 posts, read 4,951,126 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Sure, even 20% is a lot....100's of thousands. I have one Jewish friend who is a lefty but he votes Republican because his business does biz with the Republican administration of his city.

Add in all the Orthodox....who definitely skew the results some. I think there are two main variables

1. The Candidate - Romney is obviously more palatable for a Jewish business type (being that he is/was Wall Street and venture capital, etc.) and Mormons are not considered to to be "religion above country". He also is a moderate and, in fact, won the Gov. in my state - during which term Gay Marriage and Universal health care were passed.....that's a far shot from the Trump of today!

2. Trump got the 24% along with many other votes as "give him a shot"....which, now (2018) we can see is long over. I doubt he will get 20% of the vote in 2020.

History is no indication here since the Jewish population is becoming more secular, younger and probably even more liberal than before. My thinking is that, without the Fundie Jewish vote, the GOP would be lucky to ever hit even 15%, which is really weak. That's the weakest of any ethics group I know of other than black folks (unless I am missing something)...
So, 24% of Jewish voters voted Trump to 'give him a shot' ? Is that like giving a rookie quarterback 'a shot' if the established qb is having a bad game ? Clinton had a long established record and 1 in 4 Jews rejected her.

Orthodox Jews are maybe 10-12% of Jews. Roughly 60% vote R. If some who vote D leave the D's, not a significant overall impact.

Toss-out midterm elections. They're too locally oriented to say anything about a prez election.
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Old 08-27-2019, 04:37 PM
 
16,821 posts, read 4,413,490 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzarama View Post
So, 24% of Jewish voters voted Trump to 'give him a shot' ? Is that like giving a rookie quarterback 'a shot' if the established qb is having a bad game ? Clinton had a long established record and 1 in 4 Jews rejected her.

Orthodox Jews are maybe 10-12% of Jews. Roughly 60% vote R. If some who vote D leave the D's, not a significant overall impact.

Toss-out midterm elections. They're too locally oriented to say anything about a prez election.
Well, toss out a 2020 prediction for me? How many Jews will vote GOP?

I say less than 20%. What say you?
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Old 08-27-2019, 05:15 PM
 
9,671 posts, read 4,951,126 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Well, toss out a 2020 prediction for me? How many Jews will vote GOP?

I say less than 20%. What say you?
I'll take the over. 20+%. 14 months too far away to say whether closer to 24% or Romney's 30%.
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Old 08-27-2019, 05:27 PM
 
4,047 posts, read 814,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzarama View Post
I'll take the over. 20+%. 14 months too far away to say whether closer to 24% or Romney's 30%.
I'd say 25% if Biden is the nominee, and 30% if one of the Democratic Socialists is the nominee.
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Old 08-27-2019, 05:55 PM
 
Location: Florida
22,842 posts, read 9,740,784 times
Reputation: 18742
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD View Post
And Romney got 30%, and he was more recent than McCain. Trump got 24%. Reagan and the other Bush got 35%.

And as I said, I dont know if they will be leaving the Democratic Party in droves, either. But that poster made it seem so far fetched for a Jew to vote republican. I know plenty of Jews that vote republican.
If you look at the most recent patterns--Clinton, Gore, Obama--all got 80%. So these stats can be viewed from several different POVs.

Not far-fetched, but after last week, not very likely. He really pissed off a lot of people with that patronizing crap about loyalty and disloyalty--that was incredibly insulting. It was not well-received in this country.

In any event, Jewish Americans make up about 2.2% of the electorate, so 20-25% of them is not a huge portion. There are only two swing states where that could matter regarding the general--Florida and Pennsylvania. I know nothing about PA, but I do know that I have not run across many Jews in South Florida who do not dislike Trump. Might be a few in the Maralago vicinity, but they are one-percenter cronies. It is pretty solid blue in PBC and there is a large population of Jewish Americans.
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Old 08-27-2019, 07:20 PM
 
Location: Denver CO
21,526 posts, read 12,150,001 times
Reputation: 32825
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rachel976 View Post
That's because (many) liberal Jews are so hateful toward Republicans - just look at the derision revealed on this thread - that prominent Dems feel secure they can get away with some awful behavior regarding Jews and still retain their vote.

It's a calculation. They fear that the antisemitic radicals - the Farrakhan followers, fhe Omar apologists, etc., will get angry if Dems take a strong stand against antisemitism, and it may cost them the anti-Jew vote.
oh please, you can stop with this holier than thou BS since conservative Jews are every bit as hateful towards lefties, and there is plenty of derision on this thread coming from that side.
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