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Old Today, 09:41 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,299 posts, read 2,840,196 times
Reputation: 7083

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rjshae View Post
One month can just be a random fluctuation. We should know in a year whether this is a trend or not.
This isn't just a month, as I said, it's a cumulative total for the 12 months ending in March of this year.
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Old Today, 09:43 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,299 posts, read 2,840,196 times
Reputation: 7083
Quote:
Originally Posted by workingclasshero View Post
so the question is why are you creating a thread, cheering a downward adjustment...
I am providing balance to the Trump fans here who are constantly cheering how great the economy is supposed to be.

Quote:
why do liberals constantly cheer bad numbers for the country, except when they control everything
Why did conservatives constantly cheer bad numbers for the country when Obama was president? Now that they control everything, they're getting upset at downward revisions.
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Old Today, 09:45 AM
 
Location: mancos
7,212 posts, read 6,514,694 times
Reputation: 4971
Hard to have record job growth anymore when everyone is already working.Things are good.
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Old Today, 10:50 AM
 
46,412 posts, read 18,368,645 times
Reputation: 19344
Quote:
Originally Posted by parfleche View Post
Hard to have record job growth anymore when everyone is already working.Things are good.
Yup. Their own link proves it.



Big fail by the OP yet again.
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Old Today, 11:05 AM
 
16,179 posts, read 4,267,388 times
Reputation: 11439
Quote:
Originally Posted by parfleche View Post
Hard to have record job growth anymore when everyone is already working.Things are good.
If they are good, why are - for example - 46% of Floridians not making it? Why is cc debt at a new high? Medical bankruptcies are starting to soar and car loan defaults are high. Car sales are down. Housing starts are down.....

Why?

It's easy to say that "a job" awaits anyone who wants one. It's also easy to day that 10's of millions of those jobs (or more!) don't pay enough for a person to survive, let alone move up a ladder....

Everyone was working when slavery and indentured servitude and sharecropping were big. Other than then specific name for it, there is not much difference with the low wage economy many areas of the country are mired in. Florida and Texas have min. wages of about $8 an hour.

My old story - in low-wage TN in the early 1970's I was paid $5 an hour as a laborer on a house framing crew. Day labor (manpower) paid $3.20 at the time.

I think there WAS a recession on at the time.

Those figures would equal $26 and $16 or so today.

Can a person in rural TN get a labor job...off the street (I had no connections) for $25+ an hour today???

Now THAT would be good.
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Old Today, 01:45 PM
 
Location: Ohio
20,191 posts, read 14,385,660 times
Reputation: 16401
Quote:
Originally Posted by middle-aged mom View Post
Project 538 does a decent job of explaining employment numbers.

The number that gets the most attention is an ESTIMATE derived from surveying 150,000 employers and government agencies.
Actually, no, Project 538 is wrong. The number that gets the most attention is the fake and phony seasonally adjusted data from the Current Population Survey, not the Current Employment Survey.

The data from the Current Population Survey is data manipulated by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software program that you can download for free at the US Census Bureau website.

To use the program, you enter the number from your data then add weighting factors. You can add weighting factors for anything you want.

So, let's assume 1,537 people died in traffic accidents in July. The actual number may need to be revised later because some people were only injured but they will die of their injuries in the weeks and months following.

We enter 1,837 into the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software program then add our weighting factors, like temperature, weather conditions, holidays, you saw two birds in a tree or whatever you want.

Click on "Run" an viola! We get 1,321 Seasonally Adjusted Traffic Deaths.

What happened to the other 616 people who died of traffic deaths in July?

Who cares? Besides, they're dead so it's not like they're going to whine about it.

People like the OP and the Media will swear up and down that 1,321 is the actual number of traffic deaths and not 1,837 in spite of the fact that 1,837 people really did die in traffic deaths in July.

That's how it works for employment data.

They're supposed to interview 60,000 households each month, but some Administrations have altered that figure (Clinton limited it to 40,000 households per month).

These 60,000 households are not randomly selected each month. They are pre-selected and the households agree to participate in the survey for an entire year (and yes they use cell-phones).

When they call, they will ask you if you're employed. The next battery of questions depends on your answer.

If you are employed, they'll ask how many hours a week you work. If you work less than 35 hours per week, they'll ask why you aren't:

I care for children/family/go to college/etc. That puts you here: LNU02032194

Part-time is the only job I can find. That puts you here: LNU02032196

We can't move our product or there's no business. That puts you here: LNU02032195

If your answer is "I don't wanna" you go here: LNU02600000

If you work 35-40 hours a week, even if by your own choosing you work less than 40 hours a week, you go here: LNU02500000

People who aren't working, but want to work and have looked for a job in the 30 days prior to the survey go here: LNU03000000

People who aren't working, but want to work, but haven't looked for a job in the 30 days prior to the survey go here: LNU05026645

That's the Current Population Survey (CPS).

For these months:

Mar = 156,441,000
Feb = 156,167,000
----------------------
Jobs added = 274,000

Now, run 274,000 through the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software program and add in your weighting factors and voila!

You get 20,000 Seasonally Adjusted jobs added and that's what everyone seizes upon.

What about the other 254,000 workers who really do exist and are really paying taxes?

Nobody cares, because it's not "news-worthy."

A different measure that's conducted along with the CPS is the CES or Current Employment Survey.

That is a survey of private -- not government -- employers and the number of employees on the payroll at the time of the survey.

Mar = 126,994,000
Feb = 126,370,000
---------------------
Jobs added = 624,000

So, you have two different measures showing 274,000 jobs added and 624,000 jobs added but the "Seasonally Adjusted" number is statistically manipulated is "20,000."

Too bad the Department of Defense didn't use Seasonally Adjusted Casualty Figures for Vietnam, they might have gotten more support.

Instead of 274 KIA on a particular day, we could have a Seasonally Adjusted 20 KIA.

Because BLS makes adjustments to the population based on Census Bureau data each January, we need to be careful making year-round comparisons to avoid being deceitful and disingenuous.

So, August to December 2018

Dec = 156,481,000
Aug = 155,539,000
----------------------
Jobs added = 942,000

January to July 2019

Jul = 158,385,000
Jan = 154,964,000
---------------------
Jobs added 3,421,000

Total jobs added August 2018 to July 2019: 4,363,000 jobs

We can compare the CPS to the CES. Note that since the CES is based on employer payrolls and not population, there is no population adjustment in January.

Jul 2019 = 129,962,000
Aug 2018 = 127,949,000
----------------------------
Total jobs added = 2,013,000

Why the discrepancy?

It's due to the methodology, and neither is inherently flawed.

Asking employers how many people are on their payroll is going to be more accurate than asking 40,000 to 60,000 households to provide data, then comparing that data to what you believe to be is the population of the US at the time to get the data.

There are buffoons who actually believe that February's 20,000 Seasonally Adjusted jobs is the correct number and the 75,000 Seasonally Adjusted jobs in May is the correct number.

Never mind that Social Security collected these amounts in FICA payroll tax revenues:

$79,888,911,673 May
$64,407,000,000 April
-------------------
$15,481,911,673

The FICA payroll tax is 12.4% for both employer and employee.

That means $15,481,911,673 was collected from $124,854,126,395 in wages.

Right? $124,854,126,395 * 12.4% = $15,481,911,673

So, 75,000 new workers earned $1,664,721 each in the month of May.

That works out to $10,404/hour.

That's one hell of an hourly wage and those same people who are dumb enough to believe only 75,000 jobs were added in May also claim wages aren't rising.

Someone might ask, "Why don't they just get the data from the IRS or SSA instead of wasting tax-payer money to conduct surveys?"

That's a good question and there is a very valid reason why they don't.

Federal law bars data-sharing between federal offices and agencies, and between the federal government and the States.

The IRS can get data from the Social Security Administration, they just need a search warrant based on probable cause signed by a federal judge.

The Social Security Administration can get data from the IRS, they just need a search warrant based on probable cause signed by a federal judge.

Since BLS has no law enforcement powers or administrative powers, they can never get a search warrant.

States can share data among each other and do by entering into collaborative agreements.
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Old Today, 01:50 PM
 
16,179 posts, read 4,267,388 times
Reputation: 11439
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Actually, no, Project 538 is wrong. The number that gets the most attention is the fake and phony seasonally adjusted data from the Current Population Survey, not the Current Employment Survey.

Too bad the Department of Defense didn't use Seasonally Adjusted Casualty Figures for Vietnam, they might have gotten more support.
.
So all of this proves that cc debt isn't a new high and that housing starts can't be off and the car sales MUST be up...and that all those people (46% in Florida, as one example) who aren't making it really are - but they are lying?

Come down to earth. Look around. Volunteer for some orgs and get out and drive around among the populace. Take a year doing that and then work out the math.

Vietnam was lost from day one. So is any realism in the Trump economy....unless you truly believe in dumb luck and printing money.
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Old Today, 02:08 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,299 posts, read 2,840,196 times
Reputation: 7083
Mircea is going through her usual mumbo-jumbo about the seasonal adjustments, but in this case it doesn't even matter because the numbers are over the course of a full year, in which case seasonal adjustments are irrelevant.
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Old Today, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Seattle
1,221 posts, read 261,256 times
Reputation: 1278
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
This isn't just a month, as I said, it's a cumulative total for the 12 months ending in March of this year.
Ah, okay. Well at least they're trying to make the reported data more accurate.
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Old Today, 02:34 PM
 
248 posts, read 28,326 times
Reputation: 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Here's a news item that just came out. Remember all those shouts of MAGA over job growth?

But ... Guess what?

U.S. created 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than previous reported


Let's next go the the BLS data for payroll job growth.

The article says it was the period ending in March of this year, and says it's an annual revision, so I presume the revision is for April 2018-March 2019. Mostly in 2018.

If you go to the BLS link above and download the data into a spreadsheet, you can calculate that, during that time frame, 2,517,000 payroll jobs were created. The news out today hasn't yet been incorporated into the official BLS data. That will come in a few months (again, they do this every year).

The downward revision of 501,000 is 19.9% of 2,517,000.

Thus, job growth from 4/2018 to 3/2019 is going to be revised down by almost 20%.

Remember when the Trump fans were telling everyone only data under Obama got revised down?
Newsflash the " recession " crisis psycho hoax has imploded already . You are a little late to pile on . Better to move on the next psycho hoax . Try to keep up .
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