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Old 08-26-2019, 07:00 PM
 
9,220 posts, read 5,689,448 times
Reputation: 3922

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
China itself is increasingly the target of industrial espionage. Huawei etc. are constantly being attacked by organizations from the US, Britain, France, Israel and others.
You have absolutely no clue about what you are flapping your gums about. Huawei may be the greatest global threat facing Western civilization, whose nefarious actions are being confronted by western intelligence agencies and governments .... Victims of industrial espionage? What a clownish claim.

China has been waging an economic war against the United States for decades, and many of our corporate leaders, and their bought and paid for politicians have been complicit. Thanks to Trump (and many patriots surrounding him) the game has changed.
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:02 PM
Status: "Playoff baseball real soon." (set 20 hours ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
47,518 posts, read 37,532,459 times
Reputation: 28585
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColoradoOnMyMind View Post
Great news for both countries! I don’t want to see the Chinese people suffer and lose all of their jobs that helped them build a middle class.

At the same time we have to be treated fairly and have a healthy, mutually beneficial relationship, not one sided like it has been.
Well, China has to keep their word, and they need to find it in them to quit screwing us.
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:33 PM
 
9,823 posts, read 2,970,492 times
Reputation: 5853
Quote:
Originally Posted by case44 View Post
Well, China has to keep their word, and they need to find it in them to quit screwing us.
I don't think China has to keep their word. God knows, Trump doesn't. He's all over the place. China probably has whiplash.
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:34 PM
 
2,040 posts, read 416,642 times
Reputation: 1821
Quote:
Originally Posted by trobesmom View Post
I don't think China has to keep their word. God knows, Trump doesn't. He's all over the place. China probably has whiplash.
You think China's whiplash is as bad as that of the media and the TDS-inflicted, who Trump plays like a fiddle on a daily basis?
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:36 PM
 
9,823 posts, read 2,970,492 times
Reputation: 5853
Quote:
Originally Posted by RowingFiend View Post
You think China's whiplash is as bad as that of the media and the TDS-inflicted, who Trump plays like a fiddle on a daily basis?
My point was China doesn't trust him and I don't blame them. They know that he lies like a rug.
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:48 PM
 
318 posts, read 60,080 times
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Total China exports to US is 19% of all China exports - $480bln.
Let's assume, all the export from China to US stops.
China GDP is $14.2trln. Export to US is ~3.3% of China's GDP.

On another hand, US GDP is $20.5trln. Imports from China are 2.3% of US GDP. Seems like US is in a better position? Let's take a deeper look.

China GDP composition is showing industry is 39.5%, and China exports are almost exclusively industrial goods. US GDP composition is 18.9% for industry. So, China exports 8.5% of its' industry GDP to US. But US imports 12.4% of its' industry GDP from China.

Given that China's GDP growth is ~7%/year, that's roughly 14 months growth lost - in a worst case scenario (for China).
But China has $1.1Trln in reserves. Since there would be no export to US, and other countries gladly substitute US export to China, there would be no longer need for those reserves. By dumping them all, and stopping any trade with US, China would actually gain ~18 months of growth.

What about US? US GDP growth is 2.3% (data of 2017). Cutting imports from China will cause US industry at least 5 years to recover (let pretend for fantastic scenario when US-made industry goods are at least same price as Chinese ones).

So, we have China (1.2 years growth lost) vs US (5.4 years growth lost).

Does anyone still think China would blink first?

The only reason they still talk to US is that China doesn't like wars and prefer diplomatic solutions.
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Old 08-27-2019, 10:03 AM
 
9,220 posts, read 5,689,448 times
Reputation: 3922
Quote:
Originally Posted by kanonka View Post
Total China exports to US is 19% of all China exports - $480bln.
Let's assume, all the export from China to US stops.
China GDP is $14.2trln. Export to US is ~3.3% of China's GDP.

On another hand, US GDP is $20.5trln. Imports from China are 2.3% of US GDP. Seems like US is in a better position? Let's take a deeper look.

China GDP composition is showing industry is 39.5%, and China exports are almost exclusively industrial goods. US GDP composition is 18.9% for industry. So, China exports 8.5% of its' industry GDP to US. But US imports 12.4% of its' industry GDP from China.

Given that China's GDP growth is ~7%/year, that's roughly 14 months growth lost - in a worst case scenario (for China).
But China has $1.1Trln in reserves. Since there would be no export to US, and other countries gladly substitute US export to China, there would be no longer need for those reserves. By dumping them all, and stopping any trade with US, China would actually gain ~18 months of growth.

What about US? US GDP growth is 2.3% (data of 2017). Cutting imports from China will cause US industry at least 5 years to recover (let pretend for fantastic scenario when US-made industry goods are at least same price as Chinese ones).

So, we have China (1.2 years growth lost) vs US (5.4 years growth lost).

Does anyone still think China would blink first?

The only reason they still talk to US is that China doesn't like wars and prefer diplomatic solutions.
China has been engaged in an economic and technological war against the US, not so much because they don’t like military warfare, but because they know they could not win such a conflict, and the economic war has been far more profitable.

As for your “economic impact analysis”, you’re analyzing this with the mindset of a checker player, while the game is actually chess.

First, there is no desire to wreck China’s economy, as that would be counterproductive across global markets, but simply slow it down. Therefore the intention is to first stop the US hemorrhaging of trade deficit dollars that assist in China’s growth, and remap manufacturing supply channels back toward the US, and other manufacturing locations. This provides a more long term impact, as opposed to just tariffs that could be mitigated by redirecting chinese exports to other countries to make up for the reduction in exports to the US. But if you cause manufacturing corporations to pack up and relocate out of China, that capacity is lost. And this is already happening, as massive numbers of companies are moving out of China to such places as Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.

Is it having an effect on China? Absolutely. China’s 2nd Q growth was the lowest in almost 3 decades (27 years to be exact). And this is just the beginning. This is the reason why China has indicated its desire to continue trade talks with the hope of reaching a deal. I think the Chinese also anticipate that they may be stuck with Trump for another 4 years, given the clownish competition from the more chinese friendly democrats.

Can China survive a long term disruption to the lucrative and lopsided trade bonanza they have long enjoyed at US expense? Sure, and so can we, given the 4-1 ratio between our trading. The US has all of the leverage, and China knows this.
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Old 08-27-2019, 10:17 AM
 
31,019 posts, read 15,919,269 times
Reputation: 20617
The DNC is hoping for:

Bad economy
China winning
Open borders
Natural disasters they can blame on AGW
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Old 08-27-2019, 10:36 AM
 
9,220 posts, read 5,689,448 times
Reputation: 3922
Quote:
Originally Posted by PedroMartinez View Post
The DNC is hoping for:

Bad economy
China winning
Open borders
Natural disasters they can blame on AGW
Sad but true. They really are a self destructive and despicable bunch. That they have any public support left is evidence of how dumbed down some segments of the population really are.
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Old 08-27-2019, 10:41 AM
 
24,176 posts, read 12,682,390 times
Reputation: 7760
Quote:
Originally Posted by PedroMartinez View Post
The DNC is hoping for:

Bad economy
China winning
Open borders
Natural disasters they can blame on AGW
No you just made that all up in your head.

But you know that
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