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Old Today, 09:06 AM
 
Location: MS
4,324 posts, read 4,123,540 times
Reputation: 1508

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BruSan View Post
You don't seem to understand the market segment dynamic at play here.

Commercial vehicle sales down means less commerce. Pick-up truck sales up means people are just buying trucks instead of cars.

One is a depleting of segment whereas the other is a mere shifting of segment.

Anything to do with commerce such as major freight transportation diminishment is a sign the economy is contracting. Ignore the signs all you like, it's still happening.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/manufac...ce-11567935002

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/gaug...e-economy.html
Did anyone check to see if inter-modal train transport is up? No need to replace a big truck with a few million miles on it if your only drive it a locally.


I can drive by the BNSF inter-modal facility in Memphis and they are constantly unloading cargo trailers. My cousin who drives a big rig says that every carrier is looking for drivers. They will even pay for your driving school. All you have to do is have a clean record (criminal and driving) and pass a drug test.
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Old Today, 09:08 AM
 
34,894 posts, read 18,904,620 times
Reputation: 7746
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruSan View Post
You don't seem to understand the market segment dynamic at play here.

Commercial vehicle sales down means less commerce. Pick-up truck sales up means people are just buying trucks instead of cars.

One is a depleting of segment whereas the other is a mere shifting of segment.

Anything to do with commerce such as major freight transportation diminishment is a sign the economy is contracting. Ignore the signs all you like, it's still happening.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/manufac...ce-11567935002

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/gaug...e-economy.html


No, I do, I also read the article, did you?


"He also noted that August marked the tenth month of Y/Y declines after orders exceeded expectations in the seasonally weak third quarter last year. The robust demand last year was a result of fleets and dealers placing orders earlier than normal to secure build slots for 2019, he said."


So, companies ordered more than usual last year, and the left is complaining that truck sales are not as they usually are....


Did you ever think it's because they bought more than expected in 2018? Nahhhhhh...that could never happen....
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Old Today, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Huntsville, AL
1,592 posts, read 742,209 times
Reputation: 1906
These miserable America haters are hoping and praying our economy tanks because of their extreme hatred for our President. It's beyond disgusting.
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Old Today, 09:18 AM
 
Location: Round Rock, TX
2,768 posts, read 837,143 times
Reputation: 776
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackF View Post
These miserable America haters are hoping and praying our economy tanks because of their extreme hatred for our President. It's beyond disgusting.
Bingo!
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Old Today, 09:19 AM
 
34,894 posts, read 18,904,620 times
Reputation: 7746
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackF View Post
These miserable America haters are hoping and praying our economy tanks because of their extreme hatred for our President. It's beyond disgusting.
Basically!!!
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Old Today, 09:23 AM
 
Location: Tucson AZ & Leipzig, Germany
2,520 posts, read 7,844,906 times
Reputation: 3956
4 decades ago I worked on an assembly line in a Peterbilt truck factory in Newark, CA shortly before the plant shut down and moved to Denton, TX. One thing has not changed in the heavy truck business, it can be very seasonal with lots of short term ups and downs. Many heavy truck sales are from fleet buyers, where they might order dozens or even hundreds of one particular model in order to get the best possible deal.

Unlike passenger cars or mass market pickup trucks, heavy commercial trucks are often built to exact customer specifications from a huge list of options. That means they are often not built as standard spec trucks that go to a dealer lot and wait for a buyer, the trucks have been bought on contract before they are built. Heavy truck factories sometimes run full tilt and full capacity when big orders are in the pipeline, and sometimes slow down between big custom orders. Truck dealers generally don't keep large numbers of spec trucks on dealer lots because it is risky if they don't sell fast enough.

Looking at a snapshot of a few months of heavy truck factory data can be misleading. Anything less than a full year of data compared to many other full years of data is a narrow view. Statistics are powerful because anyone can figure out how to make statistics fit the message they want to deliver. So it is important to look at the logic behind how the statistics are presented. In this case, I think the time frame that the data are based on is too short and too narrow.
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Old Today, 09:28 AM
 
2,014 posts, read 508,980 times
Reputation: 1810
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
... And there is This Chart, which shows that job openings are at 7.5 million. There were 5.7 million job openings when Obama left.
Most of the hiring happened during the Obama administration. But now that the labor pool is shrinking, of course there will be more job openings now.
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Old Today, 09:43 AM
 
785 posts, read 400,620 times
Reputation: 703
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
Maybe people just don't have to drive trucks anymore. Maybe there are now plenty of other things that they can do.
The economy is fine. Wages are up.
Generally, changes in technology or business behavior are gradual.

Nominal wages are lower today than they were just prior to the 2008 financial crisis. Take a look at this chart: https://www.epi.org/nominal-wage-tracker/

Business investment is down. Our trade deficits are higher. Manufacturing is in recession. Real estate is struggling. Q2 retail sales growth was lower than Q1 retail sales growth. 2019 has had the least amount of private sector jobs being added in at least seven years. Q2 GDP was driven primarily by consumer and government spending, not any kind of productivity or organic economic expansion.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JackF View Post
These miserable America haters are hoping and praying our economy tanks because of their extreme hatred for our President. It's beyond disgusting.
Frankly sir, your comment is everything that is wrong with American politics today. You make assumptions without knowing the facts and rather than stick to issues, you engage in petty, juvenile personal attacks. It's this kind of childish behavior that divides Americans. I love this country and want her to succeed, but I also know economics. I know that this country does best when we embrace free markets, fiscal responsibility, sound money, and individual liberty. I am consistent, I disagreed with Obama when he pursued Keynesian economic policies and bigger government, and I disagree with Trump for the same reasons.
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Old Today, 10:50 AM
 
9,789 posts, read 2,959,273 times
Reputation: 5843
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackF View Post
These miserable America haters are hoping and praying our economy tanks because of their extreme hatred for our President. It's beyond disgusting.
What's beyond disgusting to those of us who love America is that someone like Trump is president.
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Old Today, 10:54 AM
 
15,535 posts, read 17,901,510 times
Reputation: 13663
Not just trucks. RV sales are down 20.3% for 2019. RV sales declined 4.1% in 2018.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-warning-rv-sales-hit-the-skids-184504512.html



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