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Attacking Iran is even dumber than attacking Iraq but would have far worse consequences. I do not see any reason for our involvement in this part of the world. I do not support our relationship with either Israel or Saudi Arabia. They are not our friends and if we just get out the world will be surprised how soon peace will break out all over the region.
No matter the profits, everybody looses in a war.
Most people lose - not all. A few make enormous profits, and they don't care how many lives are lost and damaged in the process.
The morality in it is protecting our own country from outside threats. Appeasement, although I wish it COULD happen and work and that there could be peace WILL not happen as long as there is a phsycopath running Iran who wants to nuke the US. I am sure that the US military would do their best to ensure the safety of innocent people in Iran, but sometimes accidents do happen. What is the alternative, that we weigh the potential loss of innocent people in Iran or the potential strikes against the US by those who want to destroy us?
On one hand, we say that the people of Iran are helpless captives to an oppressive government
Yes, and that's called propaganda.
The Shah advised Ambassador Sullivan in 1978 that he intended to abdicate because he was dying of cancer. He was seeking a visa for himself and his family to enter the US to receive treatment during his final days.
Both the Shah and Sullivan agreed that Khomeini was the next best choice to lead Iran. Sullivan used his British and French contacts to open a back-door dialog with Ayatollah Khomeini and the talks went extremely well leading to a face-to-face meeting (which unfortunately never took place because of the circumstances).
The French were curious about the sudden interest of the US in Khomeini and discovered the Shah was abdicating and that the US intended to install Khomeini as the leader of Iran. They sought to put their man, a different ayatollah into power and leaked word of the Shah's intended abdication at a mosque in Tabriz.
That led to instant revolution as various factions gathered in support of the many different ayatollahs. Brzezinski and Sick advised Carter to send General Huygens to Iran to convince the Iranian military to take over the country, and they did so without first consulting with Sullivan or Alexander Haig, who was then the Army Chief of Staff.
Sullivan and Haig attempted to stop Huygens, but it was too late. When the Khomeini arrives in Iran, he sees the military in the streets shooting civilians and occupying the state run radio and television stations and General Huygens is shuttling back and forth from the capital building and the US Embassy Mission.
I don't know what Khomeini thought, but certainly he was thinking that the US was setting him up to be assassinated, or was using him and playing him for a fool. In any event, it was obvious to Khomeini that the US had double-crossed him.
Many military units then defected to Khomeini, just as Haig and Sullivan knew would happen, and many others returned to their garrisons, leaving a small number of units that were easily defeated. Khomeini assumed power and the Shah left.
Carter denied the Shah a visa, and fumbled about attempting to gain asylum to various countries (all western countries that financially benefited from the Shah's rule denied him visas). Egypt finally had pity on him and gave him asylum.
Had Carter listened to Haig and Sullivan, instead of the neo-cons Brzezinski and Sick, the US would have rolled out the red-carpet for Khomeini and the US and Iran would have enjoyed a good relationship over the past 30 years.
The current government in Iran is less oppressive than that of the Shah's whose secret police, the SAVAK, brutalized and terrorized the population for decades, wrongfully imprisoning dissenters, torturing them and murdering them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by janeannwho
and on the other, Hillary Clinton, vows to obliterate Iran if it attacks Israel?
She's beholden to AIPAC and other pro-Israeli groups. Anyone with half a brain knows that Iran's army is purely defensive and has no capability of conducting combat operations more than 100 km beyond the borders of Iran. Its aircraft lack the combat radius to attack Israel and Iran has limited in-flight refueling capacity, making an air attack on Israel out of the question. Iran has not been successful in modifying North Korean intermediate range ballistic missiles and presently cannot launch a missile attack on Israel. So any claims that Iran poses a threat to Israel is done for purely propaganda purposes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by janeannwho
What is the morality of obliterating a captive people?
All governments are of the people, by the people, for the people, regardless of the type of government. Self-determination reigns supreme, democracy rules and the majority of Iranians support the current style of government. It is not for you to decide the style and form of government for the Iranian people, or any other people for that matter, and it would be immoral to do so.
I do not see any reason for our involvement in this part of the world.
That's why you're not in charge.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregW
Attacking Iran is even dumber than attacking Iraq but would have far worse consequences.
You're sadly mistaken. Not attacking Iran would have far worse consequences for you.
The long term US geo-strategy since 1978 is based on MECAS (Middle East-Central Asia-Siberia). It was formulated in part by one of its principal architects, Zbigniew Brzezinski, a neo-con, who (along with his son) is on Neo-Bama-con's foreign policy team.
The strategy is simple: Isolate Russia and strip away its eastern republics (Siberia) rich in oil, natural gas, coal, timber, metals, minerals and ore (plus tens of millions of acres of farm and grazing land). You got to see a preview of exactly how the US will do that when the US castrated Yugoslavia, stripping away Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Kosovo.
In order to do that, the US must first control the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Bill Clinton attempted to do that in a plan orchestrated by neo-con Tony Lake, another one of Neo-Bama-con's foreign policy advisors. Clinton sent special forces into Central Asia without congressional approval to help prop up and support the puppet governments there. Clinton was also successful in helping UNOCAL (now Chevron) purchase the rights to 75% of the oil, natural gas and minerals, and in getting US airbases and military facilities built. However, since then, the US has been kicked out and its air bases and military bases closed. The US failed because it could not force its hegemony on the Central Asian states.
In order to force its hegemony on Central Asia and gain control, the US must control Iran so that it has air and land access to Central Asia from the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. The issue is of the greatest importance because it is now known that Central Asia has 3 to 5 times more oil and natural gas than the Middle East. The US must control Central Asia to ensure that the oil and natural gas is sold on the world market in US$, and not sold in Euros or Rubles or Chinese Yuan, or basket currencies. If the US cannot control the oil and natural gas, then the US$ will eventually decline below $0.42 = 1 Euro and the US economy will ultimately collapse into recession/depression for years, resulting in the permanent loss of more than 30-50 Million jobs that are never replaced, and perennial 8%-10% unemployment on top of that.
The US doesn't need to invade the entire country of Iran, it only needs to seize the oil rich province of Kuzehstan that borders Iraq and Kuwait and is bounded by the Zagros Mountains to the north and the Persian Gulf to the south, where 4% of the world's oil lies (which is also 80% of Iran's oil). Note that 90% of the people in Kuzehstan are not Persians, they are Arabs, and their kinfolk live in Iraq and Kuwait. They have attempted on more than a dozen occasions to declare independence, most recently during the 1979 "revolution" and then again during the Iraq-Iran War.
Control of Kuzehstan automatically results in Iran becoming a net-importer of oil, instead of a net exporter of oil. Iran already rations gasoline, and the loss of oil fields in Kuzehstan would result in a collapse of the Iranian economy, with all transportation paralyzed severely affecting business and industry, and the government not having revenues to pay its military, government employees, provide medical, housing, unemployment and its version of food stamp benefits. Iran's unemployment has continually been in the 25% to 30% range and 65% of Iranians receive some form of public housing subsidy and food stamp subsidy. With 2/3 of the population unemployed, and starving with their benefits cut off and government and military employees unpaid, it wouldn't take long before revolution and chaos set in.
The US cannot invade Iran, unless it controls Iraq (and the Persian Gulf).
Those of you who think Obama is going to withdraw troops from Iraq are in for a big surprise. It was Iraq who started the ball rolling by selling oil in Euros instead of US$, resulting in the US$ dropping 8 points against the Euro. Seeing the weakness of the US$, other countries began trading in Euros instead of US$, causing the US$ to plummet even further.
The US invaded Iraq and halted the sale of oil in Euros and started selling oil in US$, but the gains against the Euro were offset by dozens of countries dumping their US$ reserves and refusing to engage in world trade using US$. The Iraqis would be stupid to continue selling oil in US$ and it's in their long term economic best interest to sell oil in Euros or a basket currency, which is exactly what they will do if all US troops should be withdrawn, since the Iraqis will no longer be under US control.
Then Russia dumped 100% of its US$ reserves and replaced them with Euros and gold, and began selling everything in Euros and Rubles instead of US$, resulting in another 8 point drop against the Euro. More and more countries started dumping US$ (itty bitty Sweden cut its US$ reserve by 45% and dropped the US$ 2 points against the Euro).
Then the Japanese started buying oil from Iran and paying for it in Yen, instead of US$ and the US$ dropped another 4 points.
When China starts paying for Iranian oil in Yuan, you should expect the US$ to drop to about $0.56 = 1 Euro.
When OPEC switches to basket currencies, it'll be $0.42 = 1 Euro.
Based on a current price of $127/barrel of oil, if $0.42 = 1 Euro then oil will be $193/barrel.
The US has a 2-3 year window to invade Iran, because any invasion would be predicated on the US having 100% control of the Persian Gulf. Once Russia and Iran negotiate an agreement for a naval base, and the Russians get a surface fleet and a couple of submarine squadrons based there, the US will not be able to take action, and Russia and/or China will ultimately gain control of Central Asia.
The only other option at that point would be for the US to recognize the independence of Baluchistan from Pakistan and send troops to keep the Pakis out of Baluchistan. That would give the US an air and land corridor from the Indian Ocean through Baluchistan into northern Afghanistan into Central Asia, provided the US can maintain control of Afghanistan.
If the US fails to do that, then it will be completely shut out of Central Asia and never have a chance to gain control of Siberia and the eastern Russian republics. The end result would be the rapid collapse of the US.
The US could shift its strategy to Africa, but the US isn't welcomed, and it would have to go head to head with China. There's no way the US can match Chinese investments in Africa dollar-for-dollar, and the cost to build a military and intelligence infrastructure in Africa on top of a pathetic attempt to match Chinese investments would be too costly and time-consuming.
Mircea - your impressive military/economic/resource IMPERIAL stategy is why you are not in charge. I see your neocon fantasy as a complete disaster. We do not need to control any foreign oil fields and never have. Leave central asia for the Mongols.
We invaded Iraq on false information. We did not go in there to free the people of Iraq.
We went in there because Iraq had WMD's that were pointed at us. When did the reasoning change ? When Bush admitted that there were no WMD's ?
So he just changed his reasoning ?
At look at Iran today..there is no talk of "freeing the people of Iran". No..it's "they have nuclear weapons pointed at us" all over again.
Mircea - your impressive military/economic/resource IMPERIAL stategy is why you are not in charge...
Not all that impressive, actually. Russia continues to hold substantial US$ reserves, and the suggested "collapse" from $0.56 = 1 Euro to $0.42 = 1 Euro would actually represent a strengthening of the USD. The current rate is running a little below $1.56 = 1 Euro. Meanwhile, no major holder of USD reserves has any desire to see the dollar plummet. Europe and Asia would lose significant portions of their export markets and their own economic stability would be threatened as the result. The more productive course of action is for everyone to sit tight until the US can elect a more rational government that will begin to take steps to put the US house back in order.
You're sadly mistaken. Not attacking Iran would have far worse consequences for you.
The long term US geo-strategy since 1978 is based on MECAS (Middle East-Central Asia-Siberia). It was formulated in part by one of its principal architects, Zbigniew Brzezinski, a neo-con, who (along with his son) is on Neo-Bama-con's foreign policy team.
The strategy is simple: Isolate Russia and strip away its eastern republics (Siberia) rich in oil, natural gas, coal, timber, metals, minerals and ore (plus tens of millions of acres of farm and grazing land). You got to see a preview of exactly how the US will do that when the US castrated Yugoslavia, stripping away Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Kosovo.
In order to do that, the US must first control the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Bill Clinton attempted to do that in a plan orchestrated by neo-con Tony Lake, another one of Neo-Bama-con's foreign policy advisors. Clinton sent special forces into Central Asia without congressional approval to help prop up and support the puppet governments there. Clinton was also successful in helping UNOCAL (now Chevron) purchase the rights to 75% of the oil, natural gas and minerals, and in getting US airbases and military facilities built. However, since then, the US has been kicked out and its air bases and military bases closed. The US failed because it could not force its hegemony on the Central Asian states.
In order to force its hegemony on Central Asia and gain control, the US must control Iran so that it has air and land access to Central Asia from the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. The issue is of the greatest importance because it is now known that Central Asia has 3 to 5 times more oil and natural gas than the Middle East. The US must control Central Asia to ensure that the oil and natural gas is sold on the world market in US$, and not sold in Euros or Rubles or Chinese Yuan, or basket currencies. If the US cannot control the oil and natural gas, then the US$ will eventually decline below $0.42 = 1 Euro and the US economy will ultimately collapse into recession/depression for years, resulting in the permanent loss of more than 30-50 Million jobs that are never replaced, and perennial 8%-10% unemployment on top of that.
The US doesn't need to invade the entire country of Iran, it only needs to seize the oil rich province of Kuzehstan that borders Iraq and Kuwait and is bounded by the Zagros Mountains to the north and the Persian Gulf to the south, where 4% of the world's oil lies (which is also 80% of Iran's oil). Note that 90% of the people in Kuzehstan are not Persians, they are Arabs, and their kinfolk live in Iraq and Kuwait. They have attempted on more than a dozen occasions to declare independence, most recently during the 1979 "revolution" and then again during the Iraq-Iran War.
Control of Kuzehstan automatically results in Iran becoming a net-importer of oil, instead of a net exporter of oil. Iran already rations gasoline, and the loss of oil fields in Kuzehstan would result in a collapse of the Iranian economy, with all transportation paralyzed severely affecting business and industry, and the government not having revenues to pay its military, government employees, provide medical, housing, unemployment and its version of food stamp benefits. Iran's unemployment has continually been in the 25% to 30% range and 65% of Iranians receive some form of public housing subsidy and food stamp subsidy. With 2/3 of the population unemployed, and starving with their benefits cut off and government and military employees unpaid, it wouldn't take long before revolution and chaos set in.
The US cannot invade Iran, unless it controls Iraq (and the Persian Gulf).
Those of you who think Obama is going to withdraw troops from Iraq are in for a big surprise. It was Iraq who started the ball rolling by selling oil in Euros instead of US$, resulting in the US$ dropping 8 points against the Euro. Seeing the weakness of the US$, other countries began trading in Euros instead of US$, causing the US$ to plummet even further.
The US invaded Iraq and halted the sale of oil in Euros and started selling oil in US$, but the gains against the Euro were offset by dozens of countries dumping their US$ reserves and refusing to engage in world trade using US$. The Iraqis would be stupid to continue selling oil in US$ and it's in their long term economic best interest to sell oil in Euros or a basket currency, which is exactly what they will do if all US troops should be withdrawn, since the Iraqis will no longer be under US control.
Then Russia dumped 100% of its US$ reserves and replaced them with Euros and gold, and began selling everything in Euros and Rubles instead of US$, resulting in another 8 point drop against the Euro. More and more countries started dumping US$ (itty bitty Sweden cut its US$ reserve by 45% and dropped the US$ 2 points against the Euro).
Then the Japanese started buying oil from Iran and paying for it in Yen, instead of US$ and the US$ dropped another 4 points.
When China starts paying for Iranian oil in Yuan, you should expect the US$ to drop to about $0.56 = 1 Euro.
When OPEC switches to basket currencies, it'll be $0.42 = 1 Euro.
Based on a current price of $127/barrel of oil, if $0.42 = 1 Euro then oil will be $193/barrel.
The US has a 2-3 year window to invade Iran, because any invasion would be predicated on the US having 100% control of the Persian Gulf. Once Russia and Iran negotiate an agreement for a naval base, and the Russians get a surface fleet and a couple of submarine squadrons based there, the US will not be able to take action, and Russia and/or China will ultimately gain control of Central Asia.
The only other option at that point would be for the US to recognize the independence of Baluchistan from Pakistan and send troops to keep the Pakis out of Baluchistan. That would give the US an air and land corridor from the Indian Ocean through Baluchistan into northern Afghanistan into Central Asia, provided the US can maintain control of Afghanistan.
If the US fails to do that, then it will be completely shut out of Central Asia and never have a chance to gain control of Siberia and the eastern Russian republics. The end result would be the rapid collapse of the US.
The US could shift its strategy to Africa, but the US isn't welcomed, and it would have to go head to head with China. There's no way the US can match Chinese investments in Africa dollar-for-dollar, and the cost to build a military and intelligence infrastructure in Africa on top of a pathetic attempt to match Chinese investments would be too costly and time-consuming.
I think the US should keep it's nose out of other countries' business. If we don't invade Iran we will collapse? Ridiculous!
... Isolate Russia and strip away its eastern republics (Siberia) rich in oil, natural gas, coal, timber, metals, minerals and ore (plus tens of millions of acres of farm and grazing land). You got to see a preview of exactly how the US will do that when the US castrated Yugoslavia, stripping away Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Kosovo.
It wasn't USA who castrated Yugoslavia - we hated it and wanted to get rid of it for ourselves, not because bad US imperialists wanted us to do so.
USA administration supported us in our war for independence. And thank you, USA, for doing that.
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