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Old 04-30-2008, 09:09 AM
 
Location: Foothills of Colorado
290 posts, read 486,146 times
Reputation: 92

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The GDP numbers came out for the first quarter today, and I have yet to see a headline like "Recession held off another quarter" ... After all the news about so called experts predicting that we are in a recession. Now we have to have negative growth through September to have a recession. While possible, it is not predictable at this point.

Instead I have seen headlines like Anemic Economic Growth for the first quarter. And "slow growth, but contraction averted by exports."

So in other words, the weak dollar is creating opportunity for exports and if this keeps up, some of the exported jobs might come back home. Good news? Not according to the papers.

The problem is that much of our economies woes are due to consumer confidence and the fact that the public is being told that we are in a recession (even though the vast majority don't even know what that means) and when the opportunity arises to point out that we haven't been in a recession like so many pundits previously thought, they take that opportunity to spin it negatively again. That spin is actually hurting the economy.

So the obvious question is: Are they spinning it that way to cover up their ineptitude or are they doing it to influence the upcoming political elections?
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Old 04-30-2008, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Washington DC
5,915 posts, read 7,256,159 times
Reputation: 948
The reason we are not in a "recession" is that inventories rose. Counting goods produced, but added to inventory because they can't be sold is not evidence of a strong economy. If you look beyond the sound bite into the detail of GDP, it's not growing.
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Old 04-30-2008, 09:36 AM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,784 posts, read 23,805,237 times
Reputation: 6195
I only care about how actual investors (market) react, not the press nor posters.
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Old 04-30-2008, 09:37 AM
 
Location: Foothills of Colorado
290 posts, read 486,146 times
Reputation: 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlchurch View Post
The reason we are not in a "recession" is that inventories rose. Counting goods produced, but added to inventory because they can't be sold is not evidence of a strong economy. If you look beyond the sound bite into the detail of GDP, it's not growing.
If inventories are going up, people are producing those products and business are buying the raw materials. It is all part of the GDP. The definition of recession is not "2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP excluding inventories." So the current indication remains that we are not in a recession. After all the news and predictions that we are in a recession that we have endured for the last few months, this news is actually great.

Now that you are trying to spin it negatively, I will pose the same question to you directly. Why do you spin positive news negatively.
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Old 04-30-2008, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Foothills of Colorado
290 posts, read 486,146 times
Reputation: 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewToCA View Post
I only care about how actual investors (market) react, not the press nor posters.
Ahh... but the press has influence on a very important aspect of the economy... consumer confidence. And if they are not careful with that influence, they can actually do damage. I think it is an important aspect to highlight.
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Old 04-30-2008, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Washington DC
5,915 posts, read 7,256,159 times
Reputation: 948
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bagz View Post
If inventories are going up, people are producing those products and business are buying the raw materials. It is all part of the GDP. The definition of recession is not "2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP excluding inventories." So the current indication remains that we are not in a recession. After all the news and predictions that we are in a recession that we have endured for the last few months, this news is actually great.

Now that you are trying to spin it negatively, I will pose the same question to you directly. Why do you spin positive news negatively.
Somebody once said a recession is when your neighbor is out of work, A depression is when you're out of work.

The GDP number indicates a very weak economy and a lot of people experiencing a recession, with a few experiencing a depression. Be careful about crowing too much because there's a lot of "judgement" in these preliminary numbers. Like Iraq WMD, we my well find out after the final numbers are in that the Bush Administration deceived the American public once again.
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Old 04-30-2008, 10:03 AM
 
Location: Foothills of Colorado
290 posts, read 486,146 times
Reputation: 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlchurch View Post
Somebody once said a recession is when your neighbor is out of work, A depression is when you're out of work.

The GDP number indicates a very weak economy and a lot of people experiencing a recession, with a few experiencing a depression. Be careful about crowing too much because there's a lot of "judgment" in these preliminary numbers. Like Iraq WMD, we my well find out after the final numbers are in that the Bush Administration deceived the American public once again.
OK I admit that the numbers are preliminary, but that does not make them bad. I am not crowing about them, I am merely questioning the spin put on the good numbers. The articles made no mention of how preliminary the numbers are.

You once again tried to spin it negatively by bringing up Bush and WMD, but the fact still remains that the numbers are positive.

Trying to change the definition of a recession to a micro issue is a very weak attempt to convince us that we are in a recession.

I will ask again. Knowing that bad news hurts consumer confidence and lack of consumer confidence hurts our economy, why do you want to take good news and spin it negatively? Do you actually want to do harm to our economy?

At the very least, just say that the preliminary numbers are better than expected and the preliminary indications are that we are not in a recession, but we are close because...(place your negativity here)...

I know it would require that liberals swallow their pride, but it might help us improve our economy.
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Old 04-30-2008, 10:09 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
2,665 posts, read 3,414,078 times
Reputation: 579
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlchurch View Post
Somebody once said a recession is when your neighbor is out of work, A depression is when you're out of work.

The GDP number indicates a very weak economy and a lot of people experiencing a recession, with a few experiencing a depression. . . .
Does your scientific approach match up with the experts who say we are neither in a recession or depression? It's country, or at a minimum, area wide. You can't just pick the guy who's neighbor lost a job and declare recession.
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Old 04-30-2008, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Washington DC
5,915 posts, read 7,256,159 times
Reputation: 948
Blowing sunshine up people's butt isn't going to work. Who cares what some pointy headed economist and white house press stooge say? The Fed thinks we are slipping into a recession, Warren Buffet thinks we are in a recession. The stock market thinks we are in a recession. GM just announce layoffs. Does that sound like economic good news to you?
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Old 04-30-2008, 10:11 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
2,665 posts, read 3,414,078 times
Reputation: 579
Why is it the fact that the numbers show we're not in a recession such terrible, nail biting news for some?
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