Will the Environment be the single biggest issue of the century? (generation, Canada)

[LibertyandJusticeforAll]

Before it is all said and down enviromentalism will be exposed for the hoax and propoganda that it is. Of course that is if people aren't brainwashed enough and free thinkers still exist and the world governments haven't silenced them.

[UpperPeninsulaRon]

Originally Posted by silas777

Actually, the environment will become less of an issue as time goes by. Right now you have some opportunistic politicians making hay from the issue, a sympathetic media and a whole lot of people who need a crisis in their lives. but as time goes by it will pass and people will realize that all those ridiculous claims and predictions of doom and gloom were just that! Kind of like all of us that were around to remember the magazine covers of the pending ice age, have become a little wiser and skeptical of those predicting the climate! It will happen again, also people will look back and see the huge advances and changes that we have made and continue to make regarding the environment, "some justified, some not so much"! Remember when municipalities used to spread oil on the gravel roads?

I remember oil on the gravel roads. I also remember using gas on weeds to kill them. I also remember people pouring used motor oil on the ground after changing it. So over time we get smarter but not because some zealots are cramming their vision of the world down our throats. We are, as the quote indicates, getting a little wiser and skeptical at the same time.

[jmarquise]

the earth is going to burn and freeze at some point, and there is NOTHING that we can do to stop it.

[Wendell Phillips]

The earth will weather global warming; it is we that won't.

[LordBalfor]

I've long been a believer in the theory that the 21st Century will be the make-it or break-it time for Mankind.

The single most important issue of this new century is population and the enormous growing pains that Mankind is going to go through as the massive population growth of the 20th Century REALLY begins to make itself felt. Though the earth's population IS starting to stablize - with many modern nations already having a very low (or even negative) birth rate, and many of the 3rd World nations such as China and India - that had been fueling world-wide population growth - starting to level off in a very big way - the real impact of all those new people is just NOW starting to be felt.

The fact is, until the last decade or so MOST of the folks that have made up the recent population boom have been living a pretty primitive, low-impact (to the environment) lifestyle. That's because - growing up in the largely destitute 3rd World - they were mostly too poor to consume much. They didn't have cars (most didn't even have motor bikes). Many of them didn't have electricity - or if they did, they didn't have many modern conviences to use it and basically just used it for lighting. In short, they were not a consumer-driven economy in the same way that Western Europe and (especially) America was. Our way of life is pretty wasteful in regards to energy and other resources and we consume far more of such per person than the rest of the world.

In the last decade or two however, all that has started to change. China and India have been modernizing at an extremely rapid pace - as has Mexico, South America and South-East Asia. Only Africa truly remains a basket case, largely because more or less constant warfare there is undermining stability and therefor preventing any real economic growth. Most Americans have been unaware of these increadible changes going on in the rest of the world. To them, America is the be-all end-all of the entire world and nothing important is going on anywhere else. They don't look beyond their borders and don't seem to care. In their arrogance they've dismissed the population of the rest of the world (particularly the 3rd world) as "little people" of no importance or impact. To them the US is this timeless giant that will rule forever and that nothing or no one else can ever compare to.

But these folks are largely ignorant idiots. The US has NOT been top dog forever (in fact it's been only a half-century or so) and will NOT be top dog at some point in the future. That's the realiity of the situation - in fact it may not be so for much longer at all. NO country is "King of the Hill" forever and NO country ever will be. The fact is, things ARE happening out there - massively important things, things that are now starting to affect America in VERY BIG ways. The last decade or so, many of the 3rd World nations have really begun to get their act together both politically and economically There has been a fairly long period of political stabiltiy in places like SE Asia, India and China and these parts of the world have taken advantage of that fact to begin rapid modernization. Offering very cheap labor, these places are starting to become the new manufacturing and exporting centers of the world. This in turn leads to increasing wealth for the citizens (slowly at first, but now picking up speed) as plentiful jobs provide reliable income. This in turn promotes a massive incentive to change the cultures from basic agrarian societies (which are generally barely above subsistance level) to modern industrial societies. This of course brings ALL kinds of changes with it - the most important of which are population growth patterns and resource consumption.

Primative agrarian societies typically have both a high birth rate and a high infant death rate - the former because of lack of birth control practices (and the fact that on a farm more children generally means more help and thus greater food production), the latter because of lack of access to modern medicine, poor dietary intake, poor sanitation, and an overall low standard of living. Thus in primative agrarian societies the population grows slowly. Many children are born, but many die young.

Modern industrial societies are different however. They tend to have both a low birth rate and a low infant death rate. The former because of easy access to birth control of course, but more subtly because of cultural differences between that society and the primitive agrarian society. Unlike agrarian societies, modern industrial societies tend to provide little incentive to have children. There are no fields to tend, no critical daily chores to get done (such as weeding the crops, tending the livestock etc) - in short, no real reason to have a lot of children. In fact, in such societies children tend to become an economic burden rather than an asset. Because of access to modern medicine and a generally more prosperous lifestyle, the infant mortality rate drops dramatically, but this is generally more than offset by an even greater drop in the birth rate.

Thus modern industrial societies tend to have a very low population growth rate - or even, in many cases, a negative population growth rate. Thus we see Europes' population is mostly falling - fast, and aside from immigration, America is not too different. So, we have primitive agrarian societies with a high birth rate and a high infant death rate - resulting in slow population growth - and we have modern industrial societies with a low birth rate and low infant death rate - again resulting in slow population growth.

So where has the earth's population boom been coming from?

The answer is quite simple of course - from the countries making the TRANSITION from a primitive agrarian society to a modern industrial one. In those societies, there is a time lag - a delay - between people transitioning from living on small family-owned farms to living life in the city - and the new population growth pattern taking hold. During this time, population SOARS. The general standard of living begins to climb - with better sanitation, access to modern medicine etc (so the infant death rate drops) - but the old agrarian CULTURE hangs on for a generation or more - so the birth rate stays high for a while, resulting in grinding urban poverty and misery because the parents cannot provide enough money to support all those kids. This is the phase the 3rd World has been in for the second half (in particular) of the last century.

Eventually however, the culture begins to change. Slow improvement in the general standard of living and better access to birth control result in a change in the thinking patterns and folks wise up to the fact that fewer children means a better standard of living for the entire family. In the case of China, this was imposed - but elsewhere folks largely came to this conclusion themselves. And as the birth drops the population growth slows down and the general standard of living for everyone begins to improve.

And so it is, that countries like Mexico - which used to have an enormously high birth rate - now have one that is barely providing population growth at all - and still falling. Families that in the past would have had 4 or 5 children, now typically have just 1 or 2 and soon Mexico will likely have a NEGATIVE population growth rate. And as these new population growth patterns take hold, the general standard of living begins to climb dramatically. Health and educational levels improve - and so to do expectations.

Most Americans have been largely unaware of these events beyond our borders. To them the typical Mexican is a dirt poor peasant with 9 filthy snot-nosed kids, the typically East Indian is starving to mere skin and bones and clad in tattered rags, the typical SE Asian is a destitute rice farmer barely making ends meet. SOME of these preconseptions USED to be true, but times have changed. While incomes remain very low in many of these countries, so too is the cost of living, so the net effect is that - compared to past generations - the current crop of residents in these countries is healthy, educated, gainfully employed - and with ever higher expections. Folks which would in the past have been satisified merely to have enough to eat, are now desiring the same modern conveniences that Americans and Western Europeans have long enjoyed - a TV, a car, a refridgerator, a modern home, new clothes on a regular basis, etc, etc, etc. In other words they are becoming consumers of everything - just as we have been.

To anyone looking at the world as a whole, the real excitement in the world - the real growth and development - is no longer happening here in the USA, it's happening elsewhere. The biggest dams, the tallest buildings, the largest shopping centers, the most far-reaching highway systems - all the engineering projects that in the past would be expected to take place in America - are all taking place elsewhere. The tallest building in the world is now in Dubai (in the Middle East), the next tallest in Singapore - and there are huge ones going up in China. The biggest dam in the world is in China and that country is well on it's way to completing what will be the largest freeway system on earth.

All this probably comes as a shock to most Americans, but the fact is, America is no longer the automatic center of the world. In truth I'm not really sure there is a center any more - for the whole world is becoming modern (again, with the exception of Africa). The dollar is being supplanted by the Euro. Americans have discovered that state of the art medical care is available (and FAR more affordable) overseas and tens of thousands are going to places like Thailand to receive care they could not possibly afford here at home. The finest computer programmers in the world come not from America nowadays but from India - and the internet has made the outsourcing of such work extremely easy.

EVERYTHING is changing and this new century will see changes that FAR surpass anything seen so far.

Overall, this is a good thing. After all why should American be the only ones to live a prosperous lifestyle? Don't other folks deserve a crack at what we've arrogantly called "the American Dream" (in truth it's a universal dream that was largely (until recently) only reasonably reachable here)?

There is only one problem with all this - now ALL those people will be competing for the resources that until recently Americans alone consumed in large quantities. In the coming decades hundreds of millions (if not a billion or more) people will begin using automobiles, watching TV, buying new clothes, furniture and cds - in short, they will become big-time consumers JUST LIKE US.

What do you think that is going to do to prices of EVERYTHING?
How are energy costs going to be affected?
Raw materials of all kinds?
Food?

If you said, prices will rise, then you get a cigar.
How can they be expected to do anything else?

All this is going to put ENORMOUS pressure on EVERYTHING - but especially energy.

In addition, what's all that going to do the environment?
How is all that car exhaust going to affect our atmosphere?
The smoke from all those new factories producing all those new goods for all those new consumers?
How about the smoke from their power plants (all those folks will use a LOT of electricity)?
What's all that stuff being pumped into the atmosphere going to do?
The REAL concern most environmentalists have with the potential of global warming is NOT what we've done SO FAR, but what is ABOUT to happen unless we take rapid steps to mitigate it. What we've done to the environment so far is TINY compared to what is ABOUT to happen.

All that is the REAL challenge of the 21st Century - how to deal with the rising expections of these billions of new consumers, the pressure they are going to put on resources and the damage they are about to do to the environment.

Will it lead to War?
Chaos?
Famine?
Rapid Climate Change?

We have never seen a time like this before - where the ENTIRE world is competing for nearly everything.

It should be interesting.
It certainly WON'T be boring.

Ken

[cleatis]

Originally Posted by silas777

Actually, the environment will become less of an issue as time goes by. Right now you have some opportunistic politicians making hay from the issue, a sympathetic media and a whole lot of people who need a crisis in their lives. but as time goes by it will pass and people will realize that all those ridiculous claims and predictions of doom and gloom were just that! Kind of like all of us that were around to remember the magazine covers of the pending ice age, have become a little wiser and skeptical of those predicting the climate! It will happen again, also people will look back and see the huge advances and changes that we have made and continue to make regarding the environment, "some justified, some not so much"! Remember when municipalities used to spread oil on the gravel roads?

I don't really listen to politicians on either side (they're politicians - thus sleazy liars using their power for self interest) But I wouldn't really say that there is nothing going on with things like pollution. If we are to think that all that exhaust coming from our cars is that harmless, I don't see people lining up to suck off an exhaust pipe. Anyone can see the pollution when they look over a big city. that has to cause SOME problems somehow somewhere...

I will be the first to admit that there are politicians using this in their favor, but I can't say that there is nothing at all to it either.

[GregW]

We are about to live in interesting times even if we do not want to. Excellent essay Lord Balfor.

[Back to NE]

I will say yes because I believe acceptable electric cars are right around the corner. So despite peak oil (and ensuing decline), we'll scrape thru another century power wise.

But the "natural" disasters a-coming, will be the most significant events in the 21st century.

[jmarquise]

there are already some electric cars. the tesla is a good one. the chevy volt will be coming out soon. my incentive to drive electric cars would be to rid myself of dependence on foreign oil. not because I think I am polluting. I am not too concerned about global warming or anything like that because I can't get a solid answer from anyone. what is the ideal temperature for earth? no one knows, so why the hell are we spending so much money trying to stop global warming when we don't know if we should be warmer or colder? the earth doesn't have a thermostat. if temperatures are going up, it might have something to do with the fact that we are orbiting a star. the older a star gets, the hotter it burns. I live in the city and walk to work, not because I am an environmentally friendly person, but because I hate depending on oil.

Originally Posted by Back to NE

I will say yes because I believe acceptable electric cars are right around the corner. So despite peak oil (and ensuing decline), we'll scrape thru another century power wise.

But the "natural" disasters a-coming, will be the most significant events in the 21st century.

[evilnewbie]

Nope, the economic problems are the most important issue... Global Warming is like the Ice Age... you can only accept it as a part of life and stop attributing to man-made stuff... it's happening but like the Earth isn't the center of the universe, neither is man...