If Al Queda had a nuke - would they use it? (middle east, Israel)

[mrbob]

OK - search your souls and try to answer honestly - don't go PC on me...

Al Queda is actively trying to obtain a nuke - the FBI and other intelligence agencies pretty much agree on this.

Bin Laden has also been planning this very carefully, to the extent that he has a Fatwah from a Saudi cleric saying that Islam would permit the killing of 1.4 million American civilians....

Al Queda is very patient, they plan very carefully, they cannot be deterred unless they are killed.

What do you think the chances are of a muslim terrorist group setting off a nuke on American soil?

I personally think I will see this in my lifetime - I'm not sure if we can defend against it. How can you inspect every ship that docks in American ports for nuclear weapons? I don't think we remotely have this ability.

If you think they'd attack - where would they hit? My guess is NY City and Washington DC.

And what should our government do in response?

[swagger]

If they got a hold of an actual nuclear bomb, there's no question that they'd use it, either here somewhere (NYC or DC most likely) or in Israel.

I don't know about the likelihood of that happening, though. I think it's much more likely (very likely) that they'll be able to get a hold of some radioactive material of some kind and set off a couple of dirty bombs instead.

If they were to get a hold of and detonate a conventional nuclear weapon (is that an oxymoron?), the nuclear material might get traced back to the originating country, and there would be a hailstorm of missiles flying at them. Despite the hatred that many in the middle east (and/or North Korea) harbor towards the US, I don't think their leaders want their nations turned into giant glass parking lots.

[HubbleRules]

Yes, I absolutely think they would use it - at a time of their choosing... and to cause as much loss of life and destruction as possible.

However, I also agree it is more likely that they will start with a dirty-bomb or a biological weapon - those are far easier to obtain and deploy.

I'm not sure if we really have the capability to track down a nuke to it's country of origin - I think that capability only exists in the movies. So I'm not sure how we would retaliate or against whom...

When we were going into Afghanistan, I remember several ex-military experts claiming we had satellites and other capabilities that would make it easy to find Bin Laden. Guess what? They were totally mistaken.

[One Thousand]

If al Qaeda got hold of a nuclear bomb, they'd use it... they'd use it as a coffee table because it'd be too big to hide under a suicide bomber's coat.

[mrbob]

Originally Posted by One Thousand

If al Qaeda got hold of a nuclear bomb, they'd use it... they'd use it as a coffee table because it'd be too big to hide under a suicide bomber's coat.

Not quite...

They'd put it aboard a ship - and detonate it when it reached an American port. There's no way to defend against this today.

[calmdude]

US needs to make sure that there are no technological leaks from places like Pakistan where a Pakistani scientist was caught selling nuclear secrets to others.

[mrbob]

Originally Posted by calmdude

US needs to make sure that there are no technological leaks from places like Pakistan where a Pakistani scientist was caught selling nuclear secrets to others.

Sorry to say this, but it's already too late for that.

A Q Khan (their father of their nuclear bomb) was dealing out nuclear technology to muslim countries for years before the CIA put pressure on Pakistan. And all Pakistan did was put him under temporary house-arrest...

[calmdude]

Originally Posted by mrbob

Sorry to say this, but it's already too late for that.

A Q Khan (their father of their nuclear bomb) was dealing out nuclear technology to muslim countries for years before the CIA put pressure on Pakistan. And all Pakistan did was put him under temporary house-arrest...

The irony was that Musharraf pardoned Khan and never let the US talk to him. However, a very detailed report (reads like a spynovel) says the threat from sold secrets was probably contained by CIA (for now)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/25/world/25nuke.html

But, no one can be sure in the future - Pakistan's secret service has many people that are sympathetic to terrorists.

[mrbob]

Originally Posted by calmdude

The irony was that Musharraf pardoned Khan and never let the US talk to him. However, a very detailed report (reads like a spynovel) says the threat from sold secrets was probably contained by CIA (for now)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/25/world/25nuke.html

But, no one can be sure in the future - Pakistan's secret service has many people that are sympathetic to terrorists.

Calmdude,

Thanks for that NY Times reference...

And yes, you are absolutely right, the Pakistani intelligence agency is thoroughly infiltrated by Al Queda - at least according to the CIA.

[paperhouse]

Originally Posted by swagger

If they were to get a hold of and detonate a conventional nuclear weapon (is that an oxymoron?), the nuclear material might get traced back to the originating country, and there would be a hailstorm of missiles flying at them. Despite the hatred that many in the middle east (and/or North Korea) harbor towards the US, I don't think their leaders want their nations turned into giant glass parking lots.

And if it happened to be one of ours?