U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-28-2008, 11:07 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,780 posts, read 23,737,326 times
Reputation: 6169

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by paperhouse View Post
Something I just noticed. In April, the fuel and energy CPI change from March was 0. Inflation was around 4%. We also drove 4.3% less. I could be reading something into nothing, but it's curious.

As gas goes up, driving goes down - CNN.com
Could be "lag" from the prior months, the stuff doesn't line up nice and clean due to the ripple effect for secondary goods depending upon energy.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-28-2008, 11:10 PM
 
Location: Albemarle, NC
7,730 posts, read 12,682,269 times
Reputation: 1503
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewToCA View Post
I believe the consumer credit expansion generally really didn't get going until the very early 1960's. I might be a little off here, but I think the primary financing plan for acquiring large ticket items prior to that timeframe was something known as "lay away", where consumers reserved an item and the store set it aside in a storage area and consumers made monthly payments up to the point that the item was actually bought, and then the store released the item.

I may be a little off in my recollection, but that is what I recall as being the credit process prior to the 1960's. If this is correct, it really gives some insights into how our daily thinking and expectations have changed, and what might be contributing to our current financing problems.
According to Bernanke, there were credit programs given by stores and banks. But I would guess that sort of plan existed too. I still remember when Wal-Mart had lay-away. My mom used it to buy Christmas every year until they quit in favor of a Citibank based charge card. It was a type of savings plan in reality. You couldn't have it until it was paid for.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-28-2008, 11:12 PM
 
Location: Albemarle, NC
7,730 posts, read 12,682,269 times
Reputation: 1503
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewToCA View Post
Could be "lag" from the prior months, the stuff doesn't line up nice and clean due to the ripple effect for secondary goods depending upon energy.
Yeah. I'm not sure about the reporting methods and how it all looks month to month. I know we usually edit the inflation and employment numbers after a month or so. When they look sort of bad one month, they can look really bad when adjusted for the real figures or better depending on the sector, month, season, etc.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-28-2008, 11:15 PM
 
Location: Ohio
19,623 posts, read 14,117,917 times
Reputation: 15779
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewToCA View Post
Insolvency cannot be cured with more loans, no matter how easy the terms. It requires more capital, which in deep crises only the government can provide. Mr Bernanke’s groundbreaking paper on the Depression, published in 1983, noted that recovery began in 1933 with large infusions of federal cash into institutions, through the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, and households, through the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation. They were, he wrote, “the only major New Deal programme which successfully promoted economic recovery.”
I guess he has selective memory. Recovery began in 1931 with about a 22% growth in GDP. The bottom fell out and then it began to recover again in 1933 reaching a point just 8% below the 1927 GDP before the economy crashed contracting about 40%.

The economy began to grow again in 1936 and had only 2 minor crashes in 1937 and 1938.

The US had growth over the 1927 GDP in late 1939.

By the time Pearl Harbor came around, the GDP was 26% greater than in 1927 before the recession started.

Bernanke totally ignores war-time growth and his analysis proves is that large infusions of cash by the government have only a short-term effect.

Had the US not began selling war material to Japan, the Nazis, the Soviets, the Brits, the French and the Italians, beginning in 1937, the US would have stumbled along for another 10 years or so with constant crashes, although each would have been a little softer than the previous one.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. | Please obey Forum Rules | Terms of Use and Privacy Policy

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top