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What worries me is that the latest reports show that 45% of the jobs lost are permanent losses.
To have any kind of viable, steady recovery people need jobs; jobs that last and provide stability so that spending can start again.
What worries me is that the latest reports show that 45% of the jobs lost are permanent losses.
To have any kind of viable, steady recovery people need jobs; jobs that last and provide stability so that spending can start again.
It is going to take a long time.
2 pieces of mixed news:
1) Home prices increase month to month:
Home Prices Continue to Rebound; Up 1.2% in July - Real Estate * US * News * Story - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/33068494 - broken link)
2) Consumer confidence declines.
Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Slips on Job Worries - Economy * US * News * Story - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/33068491 - broken link)
What this tells us is the $8000 tax credit is the only factor supporting the housing market right now.
So in other words, we've lost so many jobs that there are simply fewer jobs to lose.
Right. Plus now the officials, including the Fed, are saying we can see anywhere from 8-10% unemployment through 2012. We're becoming more and more like Europe everyday. And I don't mean in a good way.
So in other words, we've lost so many jobs that there are simply fewer jobs to lose.
80% of the workforce still have jobs, so there are PLENTY more jobs to lose - so that argument is not only ignorant but silly. The fact is, the job cuts are winding down and hiring will begin in the spring.
Lots of pretty good news today - including the fact that housing sales are the biggest in a year and for the first time in many years, year over year median home prices are about at the break even point (ie specifically - 1/2 of 1 percent lower than last year at this time). This latter bit of info reflects the fact that median home prices are now on the rise and are off their lows and working their way back up. Not only that, but whereas earlier sales were picking up only in the low end of the market, that's now changing and sales are picking up in the high end of the market and even starting to pick up in the mid-range market. Finally, for the first time in a year an half, month over month SALES volume is up compared to last year at this time - so the fact is, BOTH sales AND prices are rising and roughly back to where they were a year ago. This is a BIG change from what we have been seeing for the past few years. It is true that there is still a big inventory of foreclosed homes, but banks are no longer so financially strapped that they need to dump them immediately (resulting in panic selling and falling prices) but instead now can let them slip into the market at a more reasonable and measured pace and thus prevent another "owners - and for the economy in general - as it means that the backlog can be gently unloaded rather than it happening all in a big rush. This is the reason those folks claiming that the unsold backlog will result in falling home prices are dead wrong. Thanks to government action, banks no longer have to dump them.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 11-25-2009 at 09:58 AM..
80% of the workforce still have jobs, so there are PLENTY more jobs to lose - so that argument is not only ignorant but silly. The fact is, the job cuts are winding down and hiring will begin in the spring.
Lots of pretty good news today - including the fact that housing sales are the biggest in a year and for the first time in many years, year over year median home prices are about at the break even point (ie specifically - 1/2 of 1 percent lower than last year at this time). This latter bit of info reflects the fact that median home prices are now on the rise and are off their lows and working their way back up. Not only that, but whereas earlier sales were picking up only in the low end of the market, that's now changing and sales are picking up in the high end of the market and even starting to pick up in the mid-range market. It is true that there is still a big inventory of foreclosed homes, but banks are no longer so financially strapped that they need to dump them immediately (resulting in panic selling and falling prices) but instead now can let them slip into the market at a more reasonable and measured pace and thus prevent another "fire sale" panic situation where the market is flooded with homes. All that is good for the home equity of existing home buyers - and for the economy in general - as it means that the backlog can be gently unloaded rather than it happening all in a big rush. This is the reason those folks claiming that the unsold backlog will result in falling home price are dead wrong. Thanks to government action, banks no longer have to dump them.
Ken
Well, we have to see what happens when the Government no longer takes supportive action. i.e. the homebuyer tax credit expiring.
I still believe once that expires sales and prices will fall for a while again.
At least until unemployment abates. Probably late 2011.
Well, we have to see what happens when the Government no longer takes supportive action. i.e. the homebuyer tax credit expiring.
I still believe once that expires sales and prices will fall for a while again.
At least until unemployment abates. Probably late 2011.
Well I think there is a pretty good chance that the homebuyer tax credit - which is set to expire in the spring - will get one more renewal (though probably at a lower rate) to take it through the summer. By the end of that time the recovery should be a bit more entrenched, and hiring underway again. Hiring will of course start slowly at first - but as with any recovery - pick up steam as it gets underway. Just the fact that the layoffs end and hiring begun will have it's own stimulative effect as it will ease the worry of those still employed and thus boost spending by those folks - which will in turn provide a "feedback" loop to boost hiring even more. I think that confidence in the relatively safety of peoples' jobs will keep home sales going and prices rising as those folks move to buy before prices rise even more and interest rates return to more normal levels. That fear of "missing out on a deal" will provide a pretty stong boost.
80% of the workforce still have jobs, so there are PLENTY more jobs to lose - so that argument is not only ignorant but silly. The fact is, the job cuts are winding down and hiring will begin in the spring.
Ken
Stop acting like you didn't know what I meant. You're not going to lose every job. Companies have shed jobs in order to stay in business. My point was you can only lose so many employees before you cannot lose anymore more without going belly up.
Stop acting like you didn't know what I meant. You're not going to lose every job. Companies have shed jobs in order to stay in business. My point was you can only lose so many employees before you cannot lose anymore more without going belly up.
Well that's true - you can only cut so far - but it's also true that there were PLENTY of silly and ignorant posters on this very board who were predicting the total collapse of the economy and the virtual end of civilization ("better stock on food, guns and ammo") just a few short months back.
THOSE folks are a bunch of Chicken Littles (and they know who they are).
The fact is (as I've been saying for 6 months now) there WILL be a recovery - and in fact we are in the beginning stages now. This year has been horrendous (as I agreed it would be) - but next year will be better, and the year after that better yet.
Ken
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You're not going to lose every job. Companies have shed jobs in order to stay in business. My point was you can only lose so many employees before you cannot lose anymore more without going belly up.
