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Old 06-06-2009, 07:56 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,339,374 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by odanny View Post
Consumption: Going way up.

Supply: Going down daily.

No matter what man invents, at no time will we ever be able to extract more oil to meet the increasing demand. Because we are past peak oil. Which means all the problems related to this imbalance will only get worse unless an alternative to oil is developed.

We aint even close. And, like climate change, cannot predict how exactly it will impact the greatest consumers of oil, the United States.

Also, I'll give you some advice: I wouldn't discuss others qualifications, especially when they are much greater than your own.

They've been calling for the end of oil since the 1960's... Please, as for qualifications, obviously you need a dose of reality, work for Gore maybe?
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Old 06-06-2009, 07:57 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,339,374 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fopt65 View Post
Question for the posters here more economically astute then me (and that probably is a lot):

Could the recent rise in stock prices be a TARP bubble? News still seems pretty bad, yet companies were getting praised and rewarded with a higher recommendation to buy for losing less money then predicted. Is that really a strong reason for a stock price to increase?

Will stock prices run up with no real resons why only to be yanked back down like during the dot com bust? I remember stock prices going nuts back then with no financial reason for it. None of those companies were making money and had huge P/E ratios.

I've stayed in the market with mutual funds and was considering selling some if DOW gets to 9,000 to try to take some profit. I don't know if we'll ever see 14,000 again. Any opinions?
The recent rise in the stock market is because the market was oversold based upon fear late 2008. The market will probably recover (seeing some of that now) as people realise that the fear was unfounded or exagerated, then stabalize for awhile until the economy catches up..
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Old 06-06-2009, 08:23 PM
 
Location: Hoboken
19,891 posts, read 16,270,932 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Despite all the stupid "Doom and Gloom" "The world is ending" "Civilization is coming to an end" "Pack away ammo and food" "Obama is going to destroy American" talk the Wingnuts have been spreading around the country and (especially) here on this board - panic has faded on Wall Street. The end of the world has NOT happened and investors are now realizing that it WILL NOT happen.

The index known called the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX for short - though more commonly called the "Fear Gauge" has fallen dramatically over the last few months from a stratospherically high level of over 75 back in October (right after the onset of the financial crises) back down to a much more reasonable number of 30 - and is continuing to drop.

While we are certainly not out of the woods regarding the Recession, investors no longer seem to fear a financial disaster that will wipe out their investments. It seems that common sense is finally setting in and blind panic abating.

"The VIX peaked near an all-time high of 90 in late October as investors fretted about the demise of Lehman, subsequent blowup of AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) and the possible nationalization of large banks like Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500).

As concerns about an imminent financial meltdown waned, the VIX began to decline. Still, as recently as early March, the VIX was hovering around 50, a level more reflective of dread and anxiety than hope and optimism.

So the fact that the VIX is back near a pre-Lehman level is good news."

That's not to say that everything is rosey, but clearly investors are of a mind that the worst is over - the worst case scenario is NOT going to happen and eventually things will return to some form of "normal". This of course is likely BAD NEWS to those silly and hysterical "Doom and Gloom" types sowing fear and panic on THIS board - but oh well, reality s*cks don't it.

Who's afraid of a big bad bear? - May. 20, 2009

Ken

Uh not exactly.

ALL BUSINESS: Bond-market rout lifts mortgage cost - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ALL-BUSINESS-Bondmarket-rout-apf-15457158.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode - broken link)=
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Old 06-06-2009, 09:47 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,719,590 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
The recent rise in the stock market is because the market was oversold based upon fear late 2008. The market will probably recover (seeing some of that now) as people realise that the fear was unfounded or exagerated, then stabalize for awhile until the economy catches up..
I am in 100% agreement with your post (amazing ain't it?). This is EXACTLY what has been going on.

The recession is now in the process of bottoming out and will probably do so in the next couple of months with a recovery starting around the end of the summer. I expect that once that recovery starts the market will move forward again pretty substantially.

Ken
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Old 06-06-2009, 09:52 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,719,590 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby View Post
Uh not exactly.

ALL BUSINESS: Bond-market rout lifts mortgage cost - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ALL-BUSINESS-Bondmarket-rout-apf-15457158.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode - broken link)=
OK, it's no secret that it's a balancing act to deal with the deficit and and try and stimulate the economy at the same time. What does that have to do with the Fear Gauge - and how does it negate what I wrote?

Ken
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Old 06-06-2009, 09:55 PM
 
Location: Hoboken
19,891 posts, read 16,270,932 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
OK, it's no secret that it's a balancing act to deal with the deficit and and try and stimulate the economy at the same time. What does that have to do with the Fear Gauge - and how does it negate what I wrote?

Ken

Well people who buy bonds are investors and they are not at all optomistic. You look at one indicator and extrapolate that to conclude that things are rosey. The picture is much more nuanced.
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Old 06-06-2009, 09:58 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,719,590 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby View Post
Well people who buy bonds are investors and they are not at all optomistic.
Well, maybe that's why the Fear Gauge is at 30 instead of 10.

There are ALWAYS some people that pessimistic

Ken
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Old 06-06-2009, 10:10 PM
 
Location: Hoboken
19,891 posts, read 16,270,932 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Well, maybe that's why the Fear Gauge is at 30 instead of 10.

There are ALWAYS some people that pessimistic

Ken

Well maybe thats why bond yields are up.

There are ALWAYS people who are optomistic.

There is no way to avoid the fact that there is a $1.8 trillion deficit and it will impact the economy.
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Old 06-06-2009, 10:23 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,719,590 times
Reputation: 7167
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby View Post
Well maybe thats why bond yields are up.

There are ALWAYS people who are optomistic.

There is no way to avoid the fact that there is a $1.8 trillion deficit and it will impact the economy.
Of course.
No one said it was going to be "easy" - but it will be dealt with.

Ken
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Old 06-07-2009, 04:27 AM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,339,374 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
I am in 100% agreement with your post (amazing ain't it?). This is EXACTLY what has been going on.

The recession is now in the process of bottoming out and will probably do so in the next couple of months with a recovery starting around the end of the summer. I expect that once that recovery starts the market will move forward again pretty substantially.

Ken
The difference, I've been saying the same thing for six months.. Glad to see you finally agree with me..
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