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Meanwhile, the majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over.
...
"He deserves a lot of credit for stabilizing the financial markets," said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein. "Confidence in recovery would be damaged if he was not reappointed."
That would be good news.
Which means this thread will soon be barraged by right wingers with scary economic predictions.
What is the implication of the end of the recession? Does it mean there will be more jobs? Does it mean the fed will raise interest rates? I hope it's good news but is it a technical thing? Don't forget the recession started far before anyone really noticed the effects i.e. massive layoffs. So how far after the end of a recession will jobs follow? The last few recessions have seen jobless recoveries so I am not sure what this means.
By the way we borrowed $75 billion this week, we have a deficit of about $2 trillion will we see a double dip?
What is the implication of the end of the recession? Does it mean there will be more jobs? Does it mean the fed will raise interest rates? I hope it's good news but is it a technical thing? Don't forget the recession started far before anyone really noticed the effects i.e. massive layoffs. So how far after the end of a recession will jobs follow? The last few recessions have seen jobless recoveries so I am not sure what this means.
By the way we borrowed $75 billion this week, we have a deficit of about $2 trillion will we see a double dip?
Since the stimulus was $787 billion, and government only spent some $70+ billion, does that mean we get the unspent $700B back? That would be a nice deficit reduction that makes a lot of sense.
It would be a mistake for the administration or the fed to stand up and say "recession over!" While by definitiion it is over we are still going to be hurting for a while.
This is an interesting article on MSNBC about the unemployed. We are not just talking about Auto workers on an assembly line. We are talking about a highly educated population that does not have any income right now.
Since the stimulus was $787 billion, and government only spent some $70+ billion, does that mean we get the unspent $700B back? That would be a nice deficit reduction that makes a lot of sense.
What is the implication of the end of the recession? Does it mean there will be more jobs? Does it mean the fed will raise interest rates? I hope it's good news but is it a technical thing? Don't forget the recession started far before anyone really noticed the effects i.e. massive layoffs. So how far after the end of a recession will jobs follow? The last few recessions have seen jobless recoveries so I am not sure what this means.
By the way we borrowed $75 billion this week, we have a deficit of about $2 trillion will we see a double dip?
More jobs?
Not immediately no.
It should mean however that the layoffs dwindle away over the next 6 months or so - and in the spring there should be a net gain of jobs - the big question is "How much of a net gain?"
This is the reason I've been in favor of the stimulus (even with it's faults). The past couple of recessions have been VERY SLOW to bring back jobs. With the job cuts having so severe this time around, we NEED to spur that along. The stimulus should do that.
Regarding a double dip - it's always possible for that happen, but I don't think it will - in part (again) because next year the stimulus money will be flowing more readily and that should provide a cushion. It seems the majority of economists also think a double dip recession is unlikely.
Make no mistake about any of this though, the situation IS tricky and it will be a fine between avoiding a double dip and unleashing too much inflationary pressure - not the silly "Zimbabwe level" scenario, but plain old inflation ala the 1970's (which would still make the recovery harder).
Ken
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