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Old 10-02-2009, 01:34 PM
 
Location: the very edge of the continent
89,000 posts, read 44,804,275 times
Reputation: 13698

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Quote:
Originally Posted by delusianne View Post
It's working on schedule, actually. Do you know what "lagging indicator" means?
We know what 'leading indicator' means, too.

"Rail traffic remains depressed despite some signs of positivity in the economy. Carloads were down 17% year over year while intermodal traffic declined 16.5% year over year. This data was essentially flat when compared to last week’s data.
This continues to be one of the more confounding pieces of data we see weekly as rails have been a leading indicator out of almost every recession the U.S. has ever been in. Much like jobless claims, the data remains incredibly weak. This data would certainly reflect the square root shaped recovery – a massive decline followed by a brief rise followed by a new (and lower) normal – not a great sign if you’re heavily invested in equities."
RAIL TRAFFIC REMAINS DEPRESSED
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:40 PM
 
Location: Saturn
1,519 posts, read 1,632,195 times
Reputation: 246
Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
We know what 'leading indicator' means, too.

"Rail traffic remains depressed despite some signs of positivity in the economy. Carloads were down 17% year over year while intermodal traffic declined 16.5% year over year. This data was essentially flat when compared to last week’s data.
This continues to be one of the more confounding pieces of data we see weekly as rails have been a leading indicator out of almost every recession the U.S. has ever been in. Much like jobless claims, the data remains incredibly weak. This data would certainly reflect the square root shaped recovery – a massive decline followed by a brief rise followed by a new (and lower) normal – not a great sign if you’re heavily invested in equities."
RAIL TRAFFIC REMAINS DEPRESSED
12-24 month time is a realistic timeframe for a stimulus package to create the desired effect.

You have got to remember that the world economy - not just the American economy - has undergone the most significant shock since the 1930's.
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:43 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,464,288 times
Reputation: 27720
Shadowstats has unemployment near 22%.

I tend to believe Shadowstats more.

I mean..how can the economy be so bad and consumer spending be so off when less then 10% are unemployed ?
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:44 PM
 
Location: The ends DO NOT justify the means!!!
4,783 posts, read 3,741,394 times
Reputation: 1336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indurain View Post
Quantitative easing has been adopted by all of the worlds central banks.

How do you propose unfreezing the interbank markets, pray tell?
What cure did you suggest for the fact that the wholesale market interest
rates were far in excess of the actual interest rates?
What proposal would you have put forward, pray tell?
These "problems" only exist because central banks and fractional reserve banking exist. The obvious solution, unless your last name is Rothschild or Morgan, is to eliminate the central banks. But then again, that would not benefit the Plantation Owners or the megalomaniacs who like to wield their power to support their utopian schemes.

You can eliminate your unecessary fear of a world without central banks by simply advocating the abolition of fractional reserve banking. The flaws of this system were manipulated to create a "need" for the central banks in the first place.
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:45 PM
 
1,224 posts, read 1,286,914 times
Reputation: 417
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista View Post
English 101: "Goal" and "promise" are two different words. So are "save" and "create". There is also a difference between "first 100 days" and "next 100 days".


No, that would be you who is ill-informed, although you have plenty of company in that. The administration's projections have consistently been in the same range as those of competent others, and there were no earmarks in the stimulus package. Every provision in it went through committee markup. You would have to use a different definition of "earmark" (which is called a fallacy of equivocation) even to make the claim...
Now we're back to Bill Clinton and the definition of "sex" and "is". Just read the links provided re: the 8% figure and the 100,000 jobs. Semantics really don't matter when unemployment is almost 10% and millions don't have a paycheck.

Let's all just paint a big yellow "smiley face" on the economy and ignore the facts.

As for the $787 "stimulus package",....call it earmarks or pork,....there is a tremendous amount of waste and political payback,....enough that even the dimocraps should be ashamed to be associated with its passage. After all, it was a dimocrap bill, written by dimocraps, for dimocraps, and signed into law by a dimocrap.
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:45 PM
 
19,198 posts, read 31,471,463 times
Reputation: 4013
Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
We know what 'leading indicator' means, too.
Well, you and the one guy who writes that free-market blog supposedly do. The people who prepare the Index of Leading Indicators don't use rail data in their model. Probably just an oversight...
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:47 PM
 
Location: Saturn
1,519 posts, read 1,632,195 times
Reputation: 246
Hmmmmmmmm.

Lets look at other economies which have pulled out of recession, for one moment.

Germany has pulled out of recession according to official statistics.
France has also pulled out of recession according to official statistics too.

Both economies provided stimulus packages.

However both economies have growing unemployment.

The effect of an economic shock is that unemployment will rise toward the end of the shock and will be the last to recede as the shock diminishes.
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:48 PM
 
Location: Saturn
1,519 posts, read 1,632,195 times
Reputation: 246
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Shadowstats has unemployment near 22%.

I tend to believe Shadowstats more.

I mean..how can the economy be so bad and consumer spending be so off when less then 10% are unemployed ?
Consumer spending is up 2.4%.
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:50 PM
 
Location: Saturn
1,519 posts, read 1,632,195 times
Reputation: 246
Quote:
Originally Posted by irspow View Post
These "problems" only exist because central banks and fractional reserve banking exist. The obvious solution, unless your last name is Rothschild or Morgan, is to eliminate the central banks. But then again, that would not benefit the Plantation Owners or the megalomaniacs who like to wield their power to support their utopian schemes.

You can eliminate your unecessary fear of a world without central banks by simply advocating the abolition of fractional reserve banking. The flaws of this system were manipulated to create a "need" for the central banks in the first place.
Life in your parallel universe is all very well.

We live in a world of central banks.

You belong to the 19th century.
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Old 10-02-2009, 01:50 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
37,963 posts, read 22,143,591 times
Reputation: 13799
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista View Post
Neither qualifying for nor receiving or not receiving unemployment benefits has anything at all to do with the unemployment numbers.

Anyone who is not working, is available to work, and has made any effort at all to look for work within the past four weeks is included as unemployed. Those who are laid off and expecting to be recalled do not have to meet the looking for work test. They are automatically counted as unemployed.
so let's look at those people you mention:

Quote:
U-5 - Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers ... Sept 2009 - 11.1%

NOTE: Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached,have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.


Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
It looks like 0bama is sitting on double digit unemployment.
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