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After a slight rise last week, Initial Unemployment Claims resumed their downward trend - this time falling by 28,000 to 452,000 (particularly significant because 450,000 or so is generally considered the "break even" point) - and the lowest point since just prior to the economic meltdown of September 2008 15 months ago. Any decrease beyond this point is generally considered to reflect job growth, and an Initial Unemployment Claims value of 350,000 signifies robust growth.
In addition, orders for durable goods continued to rise, though a bit less than expected.
All in all, good signs that the economy continues to recover.
After a slight rise last week, Initial Unemployment Claims resumed their downward trend - this time falling by 28,000 to 452,000 - particularly significant because 450,000 or so is generally considered the "break even" point - and the lowest point since just prior to the economic meltdown of September 2008 15 months ago. Any decrease beyond this point is generally considered to reflect job growth, and an Initial Unemployment Claims value of 350,000 signifies robust growth.
In addition, orders for durable goods continued to rise, though a bit less than expected.
All in all, good signs that the economy continues to recover.
This is a good sign. What companies are doing is hiring temp workers right now. If the recovery continues through the first quarter the temp workers will be hired on full time and then the recovery will hopefully become self sustaining.
This is a good sign. What companies are doing is hiring temp workers right now. If the recovery continues through the first quarter the temp workers will be hired on full time and then the recovery will hopefully become self sustaining.
However if the recovery falters in 2010 the companies will end these "temporary" assignments and the workers go back to unemployment.
We'll see what happens.
I'm pretty confident the recovery won't falter. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (the same indicators that first convinced me the recession was winding down this past spring) continue to indicate improving economic conditions.
Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The indicators point to a bright new year. The U.S. LEI increased for the eighth consecutive month. Looking ahead, we can expect a slowly improving economy through 2010. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Indexâ„¢ (CEI) for the U.S. also increased in November. Employment largely held steady, making this the first month since December 2007 that it did not make a negative contribution to the index."
so let me get this straight...because the number of NEW claims is about 450,000, that means job 'growth'????
no new jobs have been created
the number of NEW claims has been atleast 450,000 every week for the last year plus
sorry but 25 million people losing jobs that will never return during the last 5 years doesnt sound like growth to me.
just because NEW (initial) claims are 'lower' than they were doesnot mean people are getting JOBS....it means MOST of the job losses have happened
sorry but more people filing, means more people OUT OF WORK...........you can try to spin it any way you want, but facts are facts...the clinton/bush and now obama job loss train is still chugging a long
so let me get this straight...because the number of NEW claims is about 450,000, that means job 'growth'????
no new jobs have been created
the number of NEW claims has been atleast 450,000 every week for the last year plus
sorry but 25 million people losing jobs that will never return during the last 5 years doesnt sound like growth to me.
just because NEW (initial) claims are 'lower' than they were doesnot mean people are getting JOBS....it means MOST of the job losses have happened
sorry but more people filing, means more people OUT OF WORK...........you can try to spin it any way you want, but facts are facts...the clinton/bush and now obama job loss train is still chugging a long
You need to educate yourself.
Yes - 450,000 new claims is the break even point in regards to job growth. You have to remember that the US is a country of over 300 million. Of those people there are ALWAYS people that are losing their jobs. Even in a healthy economy some companies fail or downsize - they are either badly run, or the owner gets sick or simply decides to retire - and can't find a buyer so he simply sells the assets and shuts the company down, or the company is in a shrinking industry, or a major company in the town decides to relocate and the ripple effect throughout the local economy results in other companies laying off workers, one company can't compete with a competing firm, etc, etc, etc.
Some companies just don't make it (a huge percentage of new restaurants for example die in their first year) - and when those companies collapse (or simply downsize) people lose jobs (even if the overall economy is doing well) and they go on unemployment. When the economy is doing well, they generally don't stay on unemployment long - but unless they get a job RIGHT AWAY, they generally go on unemployment for a least a little while (and when they do, they file one of those initial unemployment claims).
The upshot is that there are lots of reasons why people are laid off even when the overall economy is doing well. This is the normal "churning' that takes place even when the economy is healthy. In good times, this works out to be a bit more than 1/10th of 1% of the population at any given time (ie 350,000 or so). I know 350,000 sounds like a lot (and it is) but as a percentage of the total work force it's a pretty tiny number.
It's just the way things are. On any given week, some people are losing their jobs, other people are getting jobs. Happens all the time (endlessly).
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 12-24-2009 at 08:09 AM..
You need to educate yourself.
Yes - 450,000 new claims is the break even point in regards to job growth. You have to remember that the US is country of over 300 million. Of those people there are ALWAYS people that are losing their jobs. Even in a healthy economy some companies fail or downsize - they are either badly run, or owner decides to retire and can't find a buyer so he simply shuts the company down, or the company is in a shrinking industry, or a major company in the town decides relocate and the ripple effect throughout the local economy results in other companies laying off workers. There are lots of reasons why people are laid off even when the overall economy is doing well. This is the normal "churning' that takes place even when the economy is healthy. In good times, this works out to be roughly 1/10th of 1% of the population at any given time (ie 350,000 or so).
It's just the way things are. Some people are losing their jobs, other people are getting jobs. Happens all the time.
Ken
yes you are correct that it happens all the time, and 450k is the even out point between losses and gains
but you are forgetting the fact that since nafta 60 million jobs have left this country..and the BS unemployment rate that the government posts is just that BS
even in the early 00's we were saying we have gone from a manufacturing/producing counrty to a managing country. jobs have left at an astounding pace, not much is made in america anymore, areas where we should be leading the world, we are trailing big time. heck look at electronics, nothing in the usa anymore....even GE who is hq'd in CT, everything they manufacure is made in mexico/maylasia.
yes you are correct that it happens all the time, and 450k is the even out point between losses and gains
but you are forgetting the fact that since nafta 60 million jobs have left this country..and the BS unemployment rate that the government posts is just that BS
even in the early 00's we were saying we have gone from a manufacturing/producing counrty to a managing country. jobs have left at an astounding pace, not much is made in america anymore, areas where we should be leading the world, we are trailing big time. heck look at electronics, nothing in the usa anymore....even GE who is hq'd in CT, everything they manufacure is made in mexico/maylasia.
Well, yeah, jobs HAVE gone overseas - that's why the US is now only the 3rd highest country in regards to exports instead of #1. BUT - as the ranking indicates - we STILL export stuff (a LOT of it), we still make stuff (a LOT of it) - and there are still jobs being created in this country. Some industries we dominate (arms exports for example)
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