Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 12-24-2009, 06:52 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,255,415 times
Reputation: 7621

Advertisements

After a slight rise last week, Initial Unemployment Claims resumed their downward trend - this time falling by 28,000 to 452,000 (particularly significant because 450,000 or so is generally considered the "break even" point) - and the lowest point since just prior to the economic meltdown of September 2008 15 months ago. Any decrease beyond this point is generally considered to reflect job growth, and an Initial Unemployment Claims value of 350,000 signifies robust growth.

In addition, orders for durable goods continued to rise, though a bit less than expected.

All in all, good signs that the economy continues to recover.

Jobless Claims Hit 2009 Low; Durable Goods Orders Rise - CNBC

Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 12-24-2009 at 07:06 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 12-24-2009, 07:02 AM
 
5,165 posts, read 6,039,081 times
Reputation: 1072
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
After a slight rise last week, Initial Unemployment Claims resumed their downward trend - this time falling by 28,000 to 452,000 - particularly significant because 450,000 or so is generally considered the "break even" point - and the lowest point since just prior to the economic meltdown of September 2008 15 months ago. Any decrease beyond this point is generally considered to reflect job growth, and an Initial Unemployment Claims value of 350,000 signifies robust growth.

In addition, orders for durable goods continued to rise, though a bit less than expected.

All in all, good signs that the economy continues to recover.

Jobless Claims Hit 2009 Low; Durable Goods Orders Rise - CNBC

Ken
This is a good sign. What companies are doing is hiring temp workers right now. If the recovery continues through the first quarter the temp workers will be hired on full time and then the recovery will hopefully become self sustaining.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/bu...y/21temps.html

However if the recovery falters in 2010 the companies will end these "temporary" assignments and the workers go back to unemployment.

We'll see what happens.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-24-2009, 07:10 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,255,415 times
Reputation: 7621
Quote:
Originally Posted by cleanhouse View Post
This is a good sign. What companies are doing is hiring temp workers right now. If the recovery continues through the first quarter the temp workers will be hired on full time and then the recovery will hopefully become self sustaining.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/bu...y/21temps.html

However if the recovery falters in 2010 the companies will end these "temporary" assignments and the workers go back to unemployment.

We'll see what happens.
I'm pretty confident the recovery won't falter. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (the same indicators that first convinced me the recession was winding down this past spring) continue to indicate improving economic conditions.

Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The indicators point to a bright new year. The U.S. LEI increased for the eighth consecutive month. Looking ahead, we can expect a slowly improving economy through 2010. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Indexâ„¢ (CEI) for the U.S. also increased in November. Employment largely held steady, making this the first month since December 2007 that it did not make a negative contribution to the index."

The Conference Board Leading Economic Indexâ„¢ (LEI) for the U.S. Increases Again

Ken
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-24-2009, 07:11 AM
 
Location: Chicago Suburbs
3,199 posts, read 4,306,350 times
Reputation: 1176
At this rate and before you know it, AMC will be back in bussiness building Gremlins and Pacers.

Alll hail Obama and his team!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-24-2009, 07:15 AM
 
Location: Long Island
32,816 posts, read 19,401,143 times
Reputation: 9618
so let me get this straight...because the number of NEW claims is about 450,000, that means job 'growth'????

no new jobs have been created
the number of NEW claims has been atleast 450,000 every week for the last year plus

sorry but 25 million people losing jobs that will never return during the last 5 years doesnt sound like growth to me.

just because NEW (initial) claims are 'lower' than they were doesnot mean people are getting JOBS....it means MOST of the job losses have happened

sorry but more people filing, means more people OUT OF WORK...........you can try to spin it any way you want, but facts are facts...the clinton/bush and now obama job loss train is still chugging a long
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-24-2009, 07:23 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,255,415 times
Reputation: 7621
Quote:
Originally Posted by workingclasshero View Post
so let me get this straight...because the number of NEW claims is about 450,000, that means job 'growth'????

no new jobs have been created
the number of NEW claims has been atleast 450,000 every week for the last year plus

sorry but 25 million people losing jobs that will never return during the last 5 years doesnt sound like growth to me.

just because NEW (initial) claims are 'lower' than they were doesnot mean people are getting JOBS....it means MOST of the job losses have happened

sorry but more people filing, means more people OUT OF WORK...........you can try to spin it any way you want, but facts are facts...the clinton/bush and now obama job loss train is still chugging a long
You need to educate yourself.
Yes - 450,000 new claims is the break even point in regards to job growth. You have to remember that the US is a country of over 300 million. Of those people there are ALWAYS people that are losing their jobs. Even in a healthy economy some companies fail or downsize - they are either badly run, or the owner gets sick or simply decides to retire - and can't find a buyer so he simply sells the assets and shuts the company down, or the company is in a shrinking industry, or a major company in the town decides to relocate and the ripple effect throughout the local economy results in other companies laying off workers, one company can't compete with a competing firm, etc, etc, etc.

Some companies just don't make it (a huge percentage of new restaurants for example die in their first year) - and when those companies collapse (or simply downsize) people lose jobs (even if the overall economy is doing well) and they go on unemployment. When the economy is doing well, they generally don't stay on unemployment long - but unless they get a job RIGHT AWAY, they generally go on unemployment for a least a little while (and when they do, they file one of those initial unemployment claims).

The upshot is that there are lots of reasons why people are laid off even when the overall economy is doing well. This is the normal "churning' that takes place even when the economy is healthy. In good times, this works out to be a bit more than 1/10th of 1% of the population at any given time (ie 350,000 or so). I know 350,000 sounds like a lot (and it is) but as a percentage of the total work force it's a pretty tiny number.

It's just the way things are. On any given week, some people are losing their jobs, other people are getting jobs. Happens all the time (endlessly).

Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 12-24-2009 at 08:09 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-24-2009, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Long Island
32,816 posts, read 19,401,143 times
Reputation: 9618
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
You need to educate yourself.
Yes - 450,000 new claims is the break even point in regards to job growth. You have to remember that the US is country of over 300 million. Of those people there are ALWAYS people that are losing their jobs. Even in a healthy economy some companies fail or downsize - they are either badly run, or owner decides to retire and can't find a buyer so he simply shuts the company down, or the company is in a shrinking industry, or a major company in the town decides relocate and the ripple effect throughout the local economy results in other companies laying off workers. There are lots of reasons why people are laid off even when the overall economy is doing well. This is the normal "churning' that takes place even when the economy is healthy. In good times, this works out to be roughly 1/10th of 1% of the population at any given time (ie 350,000 or so).

It's just the way things are. Some people are losing their jobs, other people are getting jobs. Happens all the time.

Ken

yes you are correct that it happens all the time, and 450k is the even out point between losses and gains

but you are forgetting the fact that since nafta 60 million jobs have left this country..and the BS unemployment rate that the government posts is just that BS

even in the early 00's we were saying we have gone from a manufacturing/producing counrty to a managing country. jobs have left at an astounding pace, not much is made in america anymore, areas where we should be leading the world, we are trailing big time. heck look at electronics, nothing in the usa anymore....even GE who is hq'd in CT, everything they manufacure is made in mexico/maylasia.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-24-2009, 07:57 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,255,415 times
Reputation: 7621
Quote:
Originally Posted by workingclasshero View Post
yes you are correct that it happens all the time, and 450k is the even out point between losses and gains

but you are forgetting the fact that since nafta 60 million jobs have left this country..and the BS unemployment rate that the government posts is just that BS

even in the early 00's we were saying we have gone from a manufacturing/producing counrty to a managing country. jobs have left at an astounding pace, not much is made in america anymore, areas where we should be leading the world, we are trailing big time. heck look at electronics, nothing in the usa anymore....even GE who is hq'd in CT, everything they manufacure is made in mexico/maylasia.
Well, yeah, jobs HAVE gone overseas - that's why the US is now only the 3rd highest country in regards to exports instead of #1. BUT - as the ranking indicates - we STILL export stuff (a LOT of it), we still make stuff (a LOT of it) - and there are still jobs being created in this country. Some industries we dominate (arms exports for example)

Exports (most recent) by country

Ken

PS - list of US exports:

http://www.worldsrichestcountries.co...s_exports.html
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
Similar Threads

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top