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Old 04-01-2010, 05:04 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
Well, Ken-

Growth does not happen by accident, nor does it appear by magic. Growth occurs by capital investment, production, sales, reinvestment, and employment.

Dare I say that essentially ALL OF OBAMA'S POLICIES are designed to discourage capital investment and job creation. Let's review the hurdle that Obama has created for the United States in order to make a recovery. Uncle Sam is pretty agile, but Barry has set the high jump bar at ten feet, which will be impossible for even the strongest economy in the world to overcome.

Let's review Barry's job killing policies, as apparently you forgot them, Ken

1. Increased taxes for small buisness from healthcare-
a. inability to create new hires
b. healthcare expense for buisnesses that previously did not offer insurance
c. incentives not to grow buisness beyond 50 employees

2. Increased taxes for large buisness-
a. dumping medicare prescription enrollees back on corporate books, reducinig profits and forcing lay offs and lack of new hires
b. incentive to relocate overseas to avoid the new healthcare penalties
c. dumping pensioners back to medicare rolls, costing the feds more

3. Cap and tax-

Huge expenses for power companies and ANY industry who produces CO2 or uses energy
a. buisness will seek to relocate overseas for cheaper power
b. buisness will relocate overseas to avoid the carbon tax
c. increased power costs will lower profitability, forcing buisness to dump costs on to consumers, and or lay off employees

4. Citizenship for illegals

Now Barry will have 30 million new constituents. Unfortunately, now Barry will have 30 million new unskilled laborers to flood the job market, essentially preventing the current unemployed from finding any employment, except at slave wages.

5. Maintaining China as "most favored nation" trade status (a gift from the Clinton adminstration), assuring the continued flow of cheap products produced by slave labor from China, undermining US manufacturers (see death of textile and steel industry)

6. Failure to re-negotiate NAFTA. Free trade works, as long as there is not a marked disparity among the wages of the nations participating. Using slave labor wages for one nation will continue promote companies, seeking more profit and lower expenses, to relocate to the nation with lower labor. NAFTA (another gift of the Clinton administration) was supposed to be renogiated by Barry. Not now- the Mexicans are his new best friends.

7. Lapse of the Bush tax cuts and proposed increase income tax and payroll tax for citizens.

8. Increased capital gains tax- increses in capital gains discourage investment and dry up captial for industry. Fewer capital gains- less incentive to invest and provide industry with much needed capital to expand and hire new employees.

Less money for citizens to spend- less product bought- fewer product made- less jobs
And your posting the same thing over again doesn't change the fact that:

1) Job cuts are ending and job creation about to begin (for April if not for the March numbers to be released tomorrow).

2) Home prices are pretty stable now in many markets.

3) The banking system has been stabilized.

4) The Commercial Real Estate Market is very close to being stable.

5) The Stock Market has had one of it's best runs ever - and now essentially back to where it was before the massive stock meltdown of late 2008.

6) Factory orders and output are increasing.

7) The auto industry is well on it's way to recovery (even Chrysler and GM) and sales picking up fast.

8) Consumer confidence is well off it's lows and Consumer spending is UP.

9) Inflation is negligible.

10) The US dollar is doing just fine (only slightly below where it was 5 years ago, and up significantly from 2 years ago).

ALL of these things HAVE HAPPENED or ARE HAPPENING - and they are ALL things where the Obamabashers predicted pretty much the EXACT OPPOSITE would happen - so in my opinion, you folks do NOT have a very good track record in regards to predictions. So, WHEN you folks actually have a RECORD of BEING RIGHT - THEN maybe I'll take your other predictions seriously.
Until then - nope.



Ken
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Old 04-01-2010, 05:22 PM
 
17,056 posts, read 11,455,864 times
Reputation: 9019
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
And your posting the same thing over again doesn't change the fact that:

1) Job cuts are ending and job creation about to begin (for April if not for the March numbers to be released tomorrow).

2) Home prices are pretty stable now in many markets.

3) The banking system has been stabilized.

4) The Commercial Real Estate Market is very close to being stable.

5) The Stock Market has had one of it's best runs ever - and now essentially back to where it was before the massive stock meltdown of late 2008.

6) Factory orders and output are increasing.

7) The auto industry is well on it's way to recovery (even Chrysler and GM) and sales picking up fast.

8) Consumer confidence is well off it's lows and Consumer spending is UP.

9) Inflation is negligible.

10) The US dollar is doing just fine (only slightly below where it was 5 years ago, and up significantly from 2 years ago.

ALL of these things HAVE HAPPENED or ARE HAPPENING - and they are ALL things where the Obamabashers predicted pretty much the EXACT OPPOSITE would happen - so in my opinion, you folks do NOT have a very good track record in regards to predictions. So, WHEN you folks actually have a RECORD of BEING RIGHT - THEN maybe I'll take your other predictions seriously.
Until then - nope.



Ken
1. Jobs continue to be lost Ken. That is reality (see March jobs lost). You are HOPING for increased employment, but so far it has not arrived.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100331/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets (broken link)

2. Home prices stable. Defaults on mortgages are at an all time high. Just how do stable home prices create jobs, particularly when record defaults are occurring?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...o-peak-in.html

3. Banking system stablized. Gee Ken, I guess you don't know too many people in the financial sector. Wells Fargo is still peeing in thier pants and are probably the most stable finacial entity in the private sector. I know the execs there- things are not well. The Wachovia forced "takeover" is killing them and layoffs are expected. This is the strongest player and they are still in trouble. The other shoe? Commercial lending. Pop some popcorn,pull up a chair and let's see how the financial sector does over the next two years.

4. Commercial real estate is veryclose to being stable. See #3- not true. Take a field trip and examine all the vacant office space and vacant stores remaining. There is close to zero new commercial space being added, as what is available is vacant.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/0..._n_205047.html

5. Stock market run. Yes- thank you. I sold out last winter. Let's see how long that rally lasts. I am a pretty good investor and can tell you that we are in for a little ass kicking. Talk to me in November.

6. factory orders are increasing. Factory orders declined, Ken, relative to three years ago. Mfg increased for ten months, but dropped in March, as inventories are rising again.

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/.../pdf/s-i-o.pdf

7. Auto industry on its way to recovery. Ford and GM made a profit. I would not bet on Chrysler.

8. Consumer confidence up. Everything is up when you are flat on your back. Consumer confidence is still low.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1697...m-through-2010

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN...pe=marketsNews

9. inflation is minimal. Yes. Wait until we have to raise bond rates to attract new investors for our bonds. We are in a deflationary cycle. When interest rates go up, hold on to your hat!

10. the US dollar is fine. Apparently you do not deal with foriegn currency much. Last I checked, the dollar/euro conversion is about 1.35. Keep in mind that with the inception of the euro, it was .90. Granted, it got up to nearly 1.60 before correcting back to 1.35.

How is the dollar doing against the Yen? What do you suppose will happen when the Chinese remove thier peg against the dollar? How about with our out of control debt? Did we adopt the economic policies of Zimbawe?

http://www.yenchart.com/Chart-Dollar-Yen.htm

http://useconomy.about.com/od/fiscal...bt_Deficit.htm



Okay- Now answer my Barry job killer points.

Last edited by hawkeye2009; 04-01-2010 at 05:58 PM..
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Old 04-01-2010, 06:10 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,003 posts, read 22,024,036 times
Reputation: 6563
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
1. Jobs continue to be lost Ken. That is reality (see March jobs lost). You are HOPING for increased employment, but so far it has not arrived..
It will, very shortly.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
2. Home prices stable. Defaults on mortgages are at an all time high. Just how do stable home prices create jobs, particularly when record defaults are occurring?
Stable home prices WILL lead to a renewel in construction. It won't be what leads us out of recession however. This time around it's a TRAILING indicator.

The seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas increased 0.3% in January from a month earlier, the eighth consecutive monthly increase. Twelve of the 20 cities saw price gains over the month.

Home Prices Mostly Flat - WSJ.com


Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
3. Banking system stablized. Gee Ken, I guess you don't know too many people in the financial sector. Wells Fargo is still peeing in thier pants and are probably the most stable finacial entity in the private sector. I know the execs there- things are not well. The Wachovia forced "takeover" is killing them and layoffs are expected. This is the strongest player and they are still in trouble. The other shoe? Commercial lending. Pop some popcorn,pull up a chair and let's see how the financial sector does over the next two years.
Sorry, I don't buy it.
By and large the banks have paid back the government and some are even expanding.

"JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon plans to expand the second-largest U.S. bank's investment and private banking divisions, he told shareholders in an annual letter."

News Headlines

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
4. Commercial real estate is veryclose to being stable. See #3- not true. Take a field trip and examine all the vacant office space and vacant stores remaining. There is close to zero new commercial space being added, as what is available is vacant.
Sure - there are vacant stores - DUH. Two years of recession will do that. The fact is however, we're very near the bottom and it's impact on the overall economy has pretty much already been felt.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
5. Stock market run. Yes- thank you. I sold out last winter. Let's see how long that rally lasts. I am a pretty good investor and can tell you that we are in for a little ass kicking. Talk to me in November.
Yeah, right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
6. factory orders are increasing. Factory orders declined, Ken.
Really?
It appears you've not been paying attention for 6 months or more.
That explains a LOT.

"WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - New orders received by U.S. factories rose for a sixth straight month in February as businesses rebuilt inventories, data showed on Wednesday, pointing to continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.

The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods increased 0.6 percent after an upwardly revised 2.5 percent jump in January, initially reported as a 1.7 percent advance."


http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN...pe=marketsNews

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
7. Auto industry on its way to recovery. Ford and GM made a profit. I would not bet on Chrysler..
Ford and GM made a profit and their SALES are INCREASING (as are Chryslers).



Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
8. Consumer confidence up. Everything is up when you are flat on your back. Consumer confidence is still low.
Consumer confidence will rise as job creation builds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
9. inflation is minimal. Yes. Wait until we have to raise bond rates to attract new investors for our bonds. We are in a deflationary cycle. When interest rates go up, hold on to your hat!
Yeah, well get back to when it actually HAPPENS.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
10. the US dollar is fine. Apparently you do not deal with foriegn currency much. Last I checked, the dollar/euro conversion is about 1.35. Keep in mind that with the inception of the euro, it was .90. Granted, it got up to nearly 1.60 before correcting back to 1.35



How is the dollar doing against the Yen? What do you suppose will happen when the Chinese remove thier peg against the dollar? .
Well there is no doubt the US dollar has dropped against the Euro since it's inception. From the period of 2006-mid 2008 it did horribly. But you know what? It's UP since then and the Euro is DOWN - as is the US dollar index IN GENERAL.

Regarding the Chinese - well they NEED to boost their currency - not just against the US dollar, but against EVERYTHING. They are keeping it artificially low to boost their exports. Raising it against the US dollar would be a GOOD thing for the US overall.

Regarding your "Barry" points:

Healthcare -

As more U.S. corporate heavyweights warn about multi-million-dollar charges related to the Obama administration's landmark healthcare bill, experts say the one-time hit simply curbs a government giveaway.

News Headlines (http://www.cnbc.com/id/36137977 - broken link)

Cap and Trade -

Pure speculation on your part regarding legislation that's not even completely WRITTEN yet.

Illegals -

Those folks are ALREADY here.

China Most Favored Nation -

Upward adjustment of the Yuan will help to stem the flow of jobs there. Flow of jobs to China is a long term issue though and not Obama's doing.

NAFTA -

Rising standards of living overseas will eventually fix this problem. There is to be continued pain though.

Loss of Bush Tax Cuts -

Simply puts us back to business taxes under Reagan (and business did JUST FINE).

Capital Gains Tax -

I'd like to see it a bit lower - but we'll survive with it the way it is.

Ken
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Old 04-01-2010, 07:09 PM
 
1,650 posts, read 3,375,424 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
But havent you heard, the economy is recovering, Obama saved us all, and we will see job growth every month from here till eternity due to Obamas stimulus bill?
No one seems to have mentioned the discouraged workers who have stopped looking for work. These people aren't counted in the unemployment rate, therefore making the unemployment rate look good. The last time I heard was that the number of discouraged workers was still going up, which will cause unemployment to drop since these people are no longer counted.

As far as job losses in the public sector, the public schools are laying off like crazy. The post office is bracing for lay offs. I am sure the job losses are coming in these two areas. Public schools will probably see further job losses as more pink slips are handed out.
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Old 04-01-2010, 07:44 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,003 posts, read 22,024,036 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluebelt1234 View Post
No one seems to have mentioned the discouraged workers who have stopped looking for work. These people aren't counted in the unemployment rate, therefore making the unemployment rate look good. The last time I heard was that the number of discouraged workers was still going up, which will cause unemployment to drop since these people are no longer counted.
Ah, the amount of ignorance out there is unending. *sigh*

The statistic you are seeking is called the U-6 unemployment rate - and it's published EVERY SINGLE MONTH by the BLS right along with the U-3 (traditional) unemployment rate. For February (March number will be released tomorrow) it was 16.8% (down from a peak of 17.4% in October).

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

You folks REALLY need to quit getting your "information" () from Rightwing talk radio. The U-6 number is no secret. It's been published for well over a decade now.

Ken
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Old 04-01-2010, 07:46 PM
 
17,056 posts, read 11,455,864 times
Reputation: 9019
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
It will, very shortly.




Stable home prices WILL lead to a renewel in construction. It won't be what leads us out of recession however. This time around it's a TRAILING indicator.

The seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas increased 0.3% in January from a month earlier, the eighth consecutive monthly increase. Twelve of the 20 cities saw price gains over the month.

Home Prices Mostly Flat - WSJ.com




Sorry, I don't buy it.
By and large the banks have paid back the government and some are even expanding.

"JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon plans to expand the second-largest U.S. bank's investment and private banking divisions, he told shareholders in an annual letter."

News Headlines



Sure - there are vacant stores - DUH. Two years of recession will do that. The fact is however, we're very near the bottom and it's impact on the overall economy has pretty much already been felt.



Yeah, right.



Really?
It appears you've not been paying attention for 6 months or more.
That explains a LOT.

"WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - New orders received by U.S. factories rose for a sixth straight month in February as businesses rebuilt inventories, data showed on Wednesday, pointing to continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.

The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods increased 0.6 percent after an upwardly revised 2.5 percent jump in January, initially reported as a 1.7 percent advance."

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN...pe=marketsNews



Ford and GM made a profit and their SALES are INCREASING (as are Chryslers).





Consumer confidence will rise as job creation builds.



Yeah, well get back to when it actually HAPPENS.




Well there is no doubt the US dollar has dropped against the Euro since it's inception. From the period of 2006-mid 2008 it did horribly. But you know what? It's UP since then and the Euro is DOWN - as is the US dollar index IN GENERAL.

Regarding the Chinese - well they NEED to boost their currency - not just against the US dollar, but against EVERYTHING. They are keeping it artificially low to boost their exports. Raising it against the US dollar would be a GOOD thing for the US overall.

Regarding your "Barry" points:

Healthcare -

As more U.S. corporate heavyweights warn about multi-million-dollar charges related to the Obama administration's landmark healthcare bill, experts say the one-time hit simply curbs a government giveaway.

News Headlines (http://www.cnbc.com/id/36137977 - broken link)

Cap and Trade -

Pure speculation on your part regarding legislation that's not even completely WRITTEN yet.

Illegals -

Those folks are ALREADY here.

China Most Favored Nation -

Upward adjustment of the Yuan will help to stem the flow of jobs there. Flow of jobs to China is a long term issue though and not Obama's doing.

NAFTA -

Rising standards of living overseas will eventually fix this problem. There is to be continued pain though.

Loss of Bush Tax Cuts -

Simply puts us back to business taxes under Reagan (and business did JUST FINE).

Capital Gains Tax -

I'd like to see it a bit lower - but we'll survive with it the way it is.

Ken

Alot of hope and conjecture there. That is your optomism toward Obama. Unfortunately, we live in a real world where real people need real jobs to support thier families. "Hope and Change" was an empty promise that has resulted in financial misery for the populace. I am glad that you can remain optomistic about Obama, as all those voters who have lost thier jobs and had to suffer pay cuts may not be as forgiving in 2012 (see Jimmy Carter).

My pessimissm is based upon the above noted FACTS, not my hopes of what will happen.

1. Fact- unemployment is high and is expected to rise

2. Fact- high taxes and regulations (all of which Obama has imposed)
restrict growth and employment.

3. Fact- record mortgage foreclosures and an expected increse in foreclosures through 2011. "stable" home prices have done nothing to prevent this or increase sales.

4. Fact- we are not near a "bottom"- that is your guess. Factory orders are below 2005 highs and the rise in factory orders stopped in March. Inventories are building.

5. Fact- consumer confidence is down. Again, it is your guess that it will increase. That is conjecture.

6. Fact- corporate real estate foreclosures are at an all time high and expected to increase over the next two years.

7. Fact- the dollar is down relative to the euro and has only made a rebound this year. It is in a cylical decline due to American debt. The Chinese will not let the yaun float, as it will reduce exports. They will let us sink

8. Fact- Obama's increased corportate taxes through healthcare represent annual and ongoing losses, not one time corporate write downs.
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Old 04-01-2010, 08:25 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,003 posts, read 22,024,036 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
Alot of hope and conjecture there. That is your optomism toward Obama. Unfortunately, we live in a real world where real people need real jobs to support thier families. "Hope and Change" was an empty promise that has resulted in financial misery for the populace. I am glad that you can remain optomistic about Obama, as all those voters who have lost thier jobs and had to suffer pay cuts may not be as forgiving in 2012 (see Jimmy Carter).

My pessimissm is based upon the above noted FACTS, not my hopes of what will happen.

1. Fact- unemployment is high and is expected to rise

2. Fact- high taxes and regulations (all of which Obama has imposed)
restrict growth and employment.

3. Fact- record mortgage foreclosures and an expected increse in foreclosures through 2011. "stable" home prices have done nothing to prevent this or increase sales.

4. Fact- we are not near a "bottom"- that is your guess. Factory orders are below 2005 highs and the rise in factory orders stopped in March. Inventories are building.

5. Fact- consumer confidence is down. Again, it is your guess that it will increase. That is conjecture.

6. Fact- corporate real estate foreclosures are at an all time high and expected to increase over the next two years.

7. Fact- the dollar is down relative to the euro and has only made a rebound this year. It is in a cylical decline due to American debt. The Chinese will not let the yaun float, as it will reduce exports. They will let us sink

8. Fact- Obama's increased corportate taxes through healthcare represent annual and ongoing losses, not one time corporate write downs.
1- Yes, the U-3 number might rise - as folks counted on the U-6 number start looking for work again (causing THAT number to fall as they migrate from U-6 classification (discouraged) to the U-3 classification (actively looking). And any rise will be short-lived.

2. Doesn't seem to have stopped growth.

3. Foreclosures will drop as the unemployment rate drops. For now, prices are stable and RISING in many areas.

4. What part of THIS:
"WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - New orders received by U.S. factories rose for a sixth straight month in February as businesses rebuilt inventories, data showed on Wednesday, pointing to continued expansion in the manufacturing sector." do you not understand?
It is the LATEST information available (released YESTERDAY). You claim the rise "STOPPED in March" when we don't HAVE March numbers yet. February's numbers were just RELEASED YESTERDAY (in March) and SHOWED A CONTINUED GAIN

5. Consumer confidence is more or less stable - bouncing up and down a little bit since coming off it's doldrums in March of last year. It will pick up as hiring does.

Market Harmonics - Consumer Confidence Index (http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/consumer_confidence.htm - broken link)

6. I've already posted links about this. Even FOX Business News is reporting stories on Corporate Real Estate Bottoming.

7. The dollar goes up and down against a whole array of currencies - NOT just the Euro. The measurement of that is called the Dollar Index - and as I've already posted, the dollar index is not a whole lot lower than where it was at 5 years ago. Five years ago (4/4/205), the dollar index was at 84.78. Today it's at80.74. If you don't believe me look it up for yourself.

The Chinese WILL let the Yuan rise. They will be forced to to combat inflation. It's just a matter of when.

Yuan Forwards Rise on Signs China May Permit Gains; Bonds Fall - BusinessWeek

8 - ALready posted a link about this.

Ken
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Old 04-01-2010, 08:43 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,003 posts, read 22,024,036 times
Reputation: 6563
Sorry, but your post is so silly (and in some cased outright INACCURATE) that I had to reply again.

First off yopu claim "My pessimissm is based upon the above noted FACTS, not my hopes of what will happen" and yet in nearly every single point you are basing your argument upon "what is expected to happen" (you state so YOURSELF in you post). Those are not "facts". Those are "expectations".
My additional responses are in RED.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
Alot of hope and conjecture there. That is your optomism toward Obama. Unfortunately, we live in a real world where real people need real jobs to support thier families. "Hope and Change" was an empty promise that has resulted in financial misery for the populace. I am glad that you can remain optomistic about Obama, as all those voters who have lost thier jobs and had to suffer pay cuts may not be as forgiving in 2012 (see Jimmy Carter).

My pessimissm is based upon the above noted FACTS, not my hopes of what will happen.

1. Fact- unemployment is high and is expected to rise

EXPECTATIONS are NOT FACTS. (didn't you make a big deal about FACTS?)

2. Fact- high taxes and regulations (all of which Obama has imposed)
restrict growth and employment.

And yet GROWTH is ALREADY here and jobs are about to be created.

3. Fact- record mortgage foreclosures and an expected increse in foreclosures through 2011. "stable" home prices have done nothing to prevent this or increase sales.

Again, EXPECTATIONS - Not the FACTS you seem to stress so much. The FACT is prices have stabilized in MANY cities. THAT'S a FACT - not an EXPECTATION.

"...the 10-City Composite is unchanged versus where it was a year ago, and the 20-City Composite is down only 0.7% versus January 2009. Annual rates for the two Composites have not been this close to a positive print since January 2007, three years ago."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hom...k=MW_news_stmp


4. Fact- we are not near a "bottom"- that is your guess. Factory orders are below 2005 highs and the rise in factory orders stopped in March. Inventories are building.

Already addressed this. the last 6 months have ALL shown this number RISING. You are just plain WRONG.

5. Fact- consumer confidence is down. Again, it is your guess that it will increase. That is conjecture.

No, the latest numbers show it to be UP - that is FACT. You are dead wrong AGAIN. It's bounced up and down since coming off it's low point this time last year as the public awaits the creation of jobs, but the latest reading shows it UP (NOT DOWN). Once job creation begins this number WILL RISE.

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in February, rebounded in March. The Index now stands at 52.5 (1985=100), up from 46.4 in February. The Present Situation Index increased to 26.0 from 21.7. The Expectations Index improved to 70.2 from 62.9 last month."


6. Fact- corporate real estate foreclosures are at an all time high and expected to increase over the next two years.

Again, with the EXPECTATIONS. I thought you cared about FACTS.

7. Fact- the dollar is down relative to the euro and has only made a rebound this year. It is in a cylical decline due to American debt. The Chinese will not let the yaun float, as it will reduce exports. They will let us sink

Already addressed.


8. Fact- Obama's increased corportate taxes through healthcare represent annual and ongoing losses, not one time corporate write downs.

Already addressed.
Again, my responsed are in RED.

Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 04-01-2010 at 08:54 PM..
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Old 04-01-2010, 09:13 PM
 
17,056 posts, read 11,455,864 times
Reputation: 9019
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Sorry, but your post is so silly (and in some cased outright INACCURATE) that I had to reply again.

First off yopu claim "My pessimissm is based upon the above noted FACTS, not my hopes of what will happen" and yet in nearly every single point you are basing your argument upon "what is expected to happen" (you state so YOURSELF in you post). Those are not "facts". Those are "expectations".
My additional responses are in RED.




Again, my responsed are in RED.

Ken
Well Ken, I guess I am just silly. I think it is quite appropriate and telling that your comments are in red, as they should be.

It is obvious that you will support Obama, no matter what he does or how the economy is behaving. That is a true believer.

The rest of the nation will not be that forgiving and will vote with their wallet. Who said, "it is the economy, stupid"?

Now here is a few questions-

1. If unemployment rises to 14%, will you still support Obama?

2. With the current acceleraton of the debt, how do you think that-

a. hyperinflation will be avoided
b. the currency will remain stable
c. that we will be able to pay for ANY social programs by 2050, as the CBO estimates that ALL federal tax revenue will go to service the debt, elimintating any expenditure for the military or anything but the debt?

3. With higher corporate taxes and suggestions by both large and small buisnesses that they will lay off employees or be unable to hire, how does that help the unemployment rate?

4. With higher personal income taxes, and therefore less money for individuals to spend, there will be less spending on the part of consumers. How does less personal spending help in a recession?

5. Wth higher healthcare costs due to the new healthcare plan, why do you think that any manufacturing should remain in the US?

6. With cap and trade looming, causing energy expenses to "necessarily skyrocket", how will increased energy costs, which increase the cost of EVERYTHING we consume, not effect reduction in discretionary spending and force manufacturers with high energy costs to relocate to other nations?


Most of this is just basic buisness- higher production costs reduce the ability of buisness to reinvest capital and expand (hire new people). If the market has limited competition, costs are passed on to consumers, who thus have less money for discretionary spending. If not, those companies with higher expenses relative to thier competitors (overseas producers) will fail to lower cost providers. I fail to see how this does not make sense to you, or anyone for that matter. It is pretty basic stuff.

I guess you never said what you do for work. Do you think that you will be spared the economic consequences of Obama?

Last edited by hawkeye2009; 04-01-2010 at 09:21 PM..
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Old 04-01-2010, 09:38 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
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Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
Well Ken, I guess I am just silly.

It is obvious that you will support Obama, no matter what he does or how the economy is behaving. That is a true believer.

The rest of the nation will not be that forgiving and will vote with their wallet. Who said, "it is the economy, stupid"?

Now here is a few questions-

1. If unemployment rises to 14%, will you still support Obama?

That depends on the circumstances as to WHY it rises to 14%.
It won't happen though so I'm not worried about it.


2. With the current acceleraton of the debt, how do you think that-

a. hyperinflation will be avoided
b. the currency will remain stable
c. that we will be able to pay for ANY social programs by 2050, as the CBO estimates that ALL federal tax revenue will go to service the debt, elimintating any expenditure for the military or anything but the debt?

a) Hyperinflation is not in cards as long as the US is the "worlds currency" - and right now there is no obvious replacement.
b) Currencies are measured against other currencies - and the fact is ALL the nations of the world face the same problems the US does - so because they are ALL in the same boat there won't be a drastic change in the relationship between them (SOME change yes - but nothing too radical). This is yet another reason there will be no hyperinflation (what would it be hyperinflation AGAINST?).
c) Long term projections (2050 etc) are WORTHLESS because there are way too many variables that far out. For instance, more than half of the increase in deficit is NOT due to government spending but rather due to the DECREASE in tax revenues because of the recession. Likewise, as an economy recovers the tax revenues SPIKE - vastly reducing the deficit (as was the case under Clinton). These kind of wild fluctuations make long-term projections impossible. No one can say how many "booms" or "busts" will occur in the next 40 years (or how long or severe they'll be). There's just too many unknowns.


3. With higher corporate taxes and suggestions by both large and small buisnesses that they will lay off employees or be unable to hire, how does that help the unemployment rate?

The unemployment rate will drop ANYWAY. Right now American businesses are flush with cash. They are just waiting to spend it. Eventually they WILL however and that will result in increases in capital investment (and thus equipment orders) and more hiring (workers are now overworked and eventually productivity will drop off unless more are hired).

4. With higher personal income taxes, and therefore less money for individuals to spend, there will be less spending on the part of consumers. How does less personal spending help in a recession?

And yet consumer spending is UP. Clearly there is something wrong with your premise.

5. Wth higher healthcare costs due to the new healthcare plan, why do you think that any manufacturing should remain in the US?

Healthcare costs are a REAL problem. Even without the new law the very situation you are complaining about IS happening. The next step that has to be done is to bring down costs. Without that ALL plans will fail (current situation included). The new law doesn't solve ALL the problems, but it DOES address many of the WORST of them (inablity of sick folks to obtain heath care at reasonable prices, etc)

6. With cap and trade looming, causing energy expenses to "necessarily skyrocket", how will increased energy costs, which increase the cost of EVERYTHING we consume, not effect reduction in discretionary spending and force manufacturers with high energy costs to relocate to other nations?

Again, you are make assumptions about a law that IS NOT EVEN WRITTEN YET.

Most of this is just basic buisness- higher production costs reduce the ability of buisness to reinvest capital and expand (hire new people). If the market has limited competition, costs are passed on to consumers, who thus have less money for discretionary spending. If not, those companies with higher expenses relative to thier competitors (overseas producers) will fail to lower cost providers. I fail to see how this does not make sense to you, or anyone for that matter. It is pretty basic stuff.

I guess you never said what you do for work. Do you think that you will be spared the economic consequences of Obama?
I'm a software engineer (who originally intended to teach history) - and (thanks to the market being up so much over the last year) I'm about to retire.



Ken
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