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Old 12-28-2009, 07:23 PM
 
69,368 posts, read 64,081,664 times
Reputation: 9383

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Quote:
Originally Posted by meson View Post
Do you have the breakdown for VISA?
Visa
2007 - not public
2008 - $6.3B
2009 - $6.9B
2010 - $7.7B

Sales increased for both, even as the economy tanked because people are using them more, and because they are taking market shares away from others.

Amex for example
2006 - $27.1B
2007 - $27.7B
2008 - $28.4B
2009 - $24.2B
2010 - $25.6B

Note how ALL THREE MC/VISA/AMEX had increased sales during the economic downyears..

You cant read retail sales into credit card transactions without dreaming up results which would not be accurate..
Quote:
Originally Posted by meson View Post
Btw nowhere did I say MC sales = economic recovery, try putting words in someone elses mouth.
Um... the story the OP used to sight economic recovery = increased sales from MC.

MONTREAL (Reuters) - U.S. retailers posted a better performance during the 2009 holiday shopping season, with sales as tracked by MasterCard Advisors unit SpendingPulse up 3.6 percent.
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Old 12-28-2009, 07:24 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,319,675 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigJon3475 View Post
2008 was the worst sales in 40 years. Being up 3.6% from that was good news but nothing to take your clothes off and run across the football field for.

Holiday Sales Drop to Force Bankruptcies, Closings (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
That sure doesn't match what the Retail Federation says (which is the source for such numbers). With no specific numbers given in the Bloomberg article I don't give it whole lot of credence.

Ken
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Old 12-28-2009, 07:26 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,319,675 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
I got my -50% in 2008 from this link:
2008 Holiday Shopping
A single telephone survey from 1,000 adults. I think I'd place more credence in the actual numbers reported by the retailers and reported by the National Retail Federations.

Maybe Bloomberg was using a similar phone survey.

Ken
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Old 12-28-2009, 07:27 PM
 
46,943 posts, read 25,964,420 times
Reputation: 29434
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Its a CREDIT card company reporting increased transactions, but what the heck does this have to do with reality?
Ehm - credit card transactions aren't real? Incidentally, Spendingpulse bases their estimates on hard data from MasterCard spending and survey data as regards checks and cash. They make their living tracking these trends - I think the idea of trying to track market share may have occured to them.

Seriously, if the best you can come up with to discredit the information is that there was a massive stampede from other payment forms to MasterCard, at least have the courtesy to dream up some sort of reason why that would be the case. (Also, remember to compare notes with Sign, who seems to think a move to cash as payment would lead to better credit card figures.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
The 3.9% is between 2009 and 2008. But don't forget that between 2008 and 2007 the loss was 50%.
I couldn't possibly forget it, mostly because it never happened. Let's look at SpendingPulse - y'know, the indicator we've been discussing so far. Here's reporting on their post-holiday report from 2008:

Early Shopping Figures Show Dismal Year - ABC News

SpendingPulse estimated a drop of between 5.5 and 8 percent. Ah, but as pghquest kindly remonds us, that has nothing to do with reality, right? Well, for 2008 he was partly right - they were too pessimistic.

The National Retail Federation published a drop of 2.8% in January 2009.

Trade group: 2008 holiday sales decline 2.8% - Jan. 14, 2009

I'd really - and I mean really - like to see a cite for anything close to 50%.
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Old 12-28-2009, 07:30 PM
 
29,939 posts, read 39,450,111 times
Reputation: 4799
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
That sure doesn't match what the Retail Federation says (which is the source for such numbers). With no specific numbers given in the Bloomberg article I don't give it whole lot of credence.

Ken

The NRF only started tracking in 1992...
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Old 12-28-2009, 07:40 PM
 
69,368 posts, read 64,081,664 times
Reputation: 9383
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dane_in_LA View Post
Ehm - credit card transactions aren't real? Incidentally, Spendingpulse bases their estimates on hard data from MasterCard spending and survey data as regards checks and cash. They make their living tracking these trends - I think the idea of trying to track market share may have occured to them.
Ehm... Credit card transactions are real, but what isnt real is you pretending that increased payments by credit cards = a recovering economy. I posted sales figures for the last several years for the credit card companies showing increases, even when the economy was down which disproved your theory... You can ignore these figures if you wish, but that doesnt change reality that people are using their cards more, and that sales increases do not = improved economy..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dane_in_LA View Post
Seriously, if the best you can come up with to discredit the information is that there was a massive stampede from other payment forms to MasterCard, at least have the courtesy to dream up some sort of reason why that would be the case. (Also, remember to compare notes with Sign, who seems to think a move to cash as payment would lead to better credit card figures.)
Yeah, I know, the best I can do to discredit the information, is to provide actual information from the companies directly which shows that increased payments do not = a good economy because the increases also took place even during a recession.

Explain to me the difference between increased credit usage during a recession, and during your pretend economic recovery, and why the difference? You have NO other economic indicator to support your argument.. NONE..

Last edited by pghquest; 12-28-2009 at 07:54 PM..
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Old 12-28-2009, 07:42 PM
 
46,943 posts, read 25,964,420 times
Reputation: 29434
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigJon3475 View Post
2008 was the worst sales in 40 years.
That turns out not to be the case. 2008 saw the biggest drop in 40 years. The actual sales numbers were in fact better than 2005 (447B vs 435B).

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
I got my -50% in 2008 from this link:
2008 Holiday Shopping
You're using a phone survey from 2008 asking people what they planned to spend when we have the actual post-fact spending figures available? That's a novel approach to statistics, certainly.
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Old 12-28-2009, 08:00 PM
 
29,939 posts, read 39,450,111 times
Reputation: 4799
I think I'll take Bloomberg's assessment over yours.
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Old 12-28-2009, 08:03 PM
 
46,943 posts, read 25,964,420 times
Reputation: 29434
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Ehm... Credit card transactions are real, but what isnt real is you pretending that increased payments by credit cards = a recovering economy.
Damn, those goal posts look heavy. Are you sure you shouldn't have left them in place?

Please cite where I claimed that "increased payments by credit cards = a recovering economy", because I'd be fascinated.

This would be particularly interesting, seeing as you spent several posts arguing that the report from SpendingPulse didn't indicate increased purchases at all. Here, let me refresh your memory:

Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Mastercard, which does not include Visa, Amex, Discovery, cash, debit etc... Just because one credit card usage is up, doesnt mean others are also up..
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Thats like asking why one retail store sales could/would be up, and others down..
I guess you've decided to concede the point?

Increased holiday spending is an indicator of increased consumer confidence, no more, no less. In the current climate, that is in fact good news.
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Old 12-28-2009, 08:09 PM
 
Location: Here
11,578 posts, read 13,942,704 times
Reputation: 7009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dane_in_LA View Post
Increased holiday spending is an indicator of increased consumer confidence, no more, no less. In the current climate, that is in fact good news.
Please pass that dope as it appears you're already stoned out of your mind.
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