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Does anyone else think that the Republican party is headed for an ever widening rift with the "Tea Party Movement(s)," popularity of figures such as Sarah Palin, and ever increasing anti-corporate sentiment on the right?
For about 40 years, the Republicans were able to retain a lower working class voting base due to focus on values issues (religion, abortion, etc).
Will the upswing in general populist sentiment, and the cultivation of it by some in the Republican Party (Dick Army, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee), lead to its relegation to a "party of the wealthy," or will the Republican party shift from being "a fiscally conservative party carrying a populist 'values voter' base" to more of a populist party?
Here are a few examples/opinions I've read (some of them dated, but still relevant):
[URL="http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2009/1116/p09s01-coop.html]Palin's"]http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2009/1116/p09s01-coop.html[/URL]
[url=http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27558.html]Dick Armey's unlikely encore - Kenneth P. Vogel - POLITICO.com[/url]
note: option two should read "populist faction" not "populist fation," that was a typo in the poll that that I could not edit once posted.
NOTE: Typo fixed.
Last edited by Mike from back east; 12-29-2009 at 10:58 AM..
I think we'll end up with a 4-party system -- the Democrats and Republicans will stay in the middle and differ mainly on economic policy, yet still be PAC and lobby driven. They will attempt to capture votes from the far right and far left just as they do today. However, more prominent parties will emerge on the far right. The Green Party or some other leftist party will pick up slightly but it won't have a huge impact.
I think this will be due to America's growing discontent with the two party system, but it will probably hit the Republican party harder in the next wave than it hit the Democratic party at the end of the Clinton administration.
However, I think a lot of people who voted for Obama will continue to feel gyped at the end of his term unless he follows through on more of his campaign promises.
Though I am not a Republican, on the contrary I'm quite socially liberal, I find the schism that exists in the Republican Party as a non-issue. Most Republicans will vote together just to be instigators and be part of the good ol' boy party.
The "Tea Party" as its called is nothing more than a method to vent frustrations and when people actually go to the poll they won't vote for the fringes of the party. If they do, it will cause a split of the party that hasn't been seen since the Whig party collapsed.
However, as time goes on, I think the Republican party will have to realize that to get most Americans back on their side they will have to embrace the generational shift that has taken place among Gen X'ers and the Internet Generation. As more people continue moving to the cities and demographic shifts occur, they'll have to reckon with a more socially liberal stance while asking forgiveness to the bloat they've contributed to the government and re-engage their small-government, small-taxes stances which they've advocated but rarely practiced.
The Republican party will become a small, regional, and marginalized group of white southerners. The Democratic party will split into two main factions - the more socially conservative, less educated, big spending labor unionists and urban minorities vs. the more socially moderate but fiscally conservative educated suburbanites.
Though I am not a Republican, on the contrary I'm quite socially liberal, I find the schism that exists in the Republican Party as a non-issue. Most Republicans will vote together just to be instigators and be part of the good ol' boy party.
The "Tea Party" as its called is nothing more than a method to vent frustrations and when people actually go to the poll they won't vote for the fringes of the party. If they do, it will cause a split of the party that hasn't been seen since the Whig party collapsed.
However, as time goes on, I think the Republican party will have to realize that to get most Americans back on their side they will have to embrace the generational shift that has taken place among Gen X'ers and the Internet Generation. As more people continue moving to the cities and demographic shifts occur, they'll have to reckon with a more socially liberal stance while asking forgiveness to the bloat they've contributed to the government and re-engage their small-government, small-taxes stances which they've advocated but rarely practiced.
Lots of truth to that. If they GOP does not become more left socially, they will have a hard time recovering with Gen-X and younger. I'm Gen-X and can't even list all the friends I have that are fiscally conservative but voted for Obama just because they were sick of the GOP's stance on war, abortion, gay marriage, etc. It's almost as if many 40 and younger are willing to put up with potentially higher taxes if it means the country will become less Puritanical.
Lots of truth to that. If they GOP does not become more left socially, they will have a hard time recovering with Gen-X and younger. I'm Gen-X and can't even list all the friends I have that are fiscally conservative but voted for Obama just because they were sick of the GOP's stance on war, abortion, gay marriage, etc. It's almost as if many 40 and younger are willing to put up with potentially higher taxes if it means the country will become less Puritanical.
The irony of course, being that if the Republicans become more socially liberal, they'd lose the "tea partiers" and other right wing "values voters."
I agree that they have managed to get, mainly the rural poor, to vote against their own economic interest by playing up to their social mores in the past but, they are losing that base (the first to go were the evangelicals).
In your theory, the Republicans could take some of the moderate Democrat base this way to compensate for losing the less educated rural poor whites who rally around Palin. Glenn Beck punditry, and the "tea party" movement, but it would definitely make the two parties look more "Republicratican" -- pardon the term.
It is abundantly clear to the GOP that they can not be the Party of the South & ever gain power again. There aren't any Republicans in the Northeast & West Coast to speak of. The religious right will take down the rest of the GOP & moderate libertarians will become a very interesting party.
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