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I said back in April that the stock market was recovering - and folks like you said simply "Bear Market Rally - it'll crash again any day". That was 7 months ago - and we're still waiting on "your predicted crash". In the meantime the DOW has gone up 3,000 points. That DOW (& the S&P) is up 60+% (NASDAQ up 80+%) from those March lows - one of the biggest, fastest comebacks in history. So tell me again - who was right?
I said hiring was coming in the spring - and it is (maybe even before). The unemployment rate likely peaked in October and is now probably on the way down (after PERHAPS one last gasp upward a little bit in January). I've been saying that for months now - and sure enough more and more signs are coming that indeed hiring is coming in the spring (it might even come EARLIER than I predicted). So tell me again - who was right?
Ken
LordBalfor------this summer, when new claims for unemployment were less than expected, you were on here salivating over that news and proclaiming it was proof of things improving.
Unfortunately, the reports for the next 2 weeks were way worse than expected.
A guy can stand on a street corner hollering out the time displayed on a watch that doesn't run. Eventually, he will be correct and can proclain that he was.
Were you a high school cheerleader on a losing team. also ?
With the amount of new federal debt and taxing of small business, it ain't gonna happen!
Keep HOPING and keep an eye on the CHANGE in your pocket!
You are living in dreamland if you think things are going to improve. Wait till the bill comes due.
See you next year, if you are still able to afford the internet. ROFLMFAO
What was these guys predictions in 2007 and the spring and summer of 2008? Were they forecasting a possible financial system collapse and the large decline in the stock market then?
LordBalfor------this summer, when new claims for unemployment were less than expected, you were on here salivating over that news and proclaiming it was proof of things improving.
Unfortunately, the reports for the next 2 weeks were way worse than expected.
Yeah, well I was 2 months early on the unemployment - so what?
The fact is things WERE improving - not unemployment yet at that point, but it was coming within a couple of months - and many many other things WERE improving - and they continued to do so, just as the Index of Leading Economic Indicators were saying they would. You seem to think I'm making up optimism, but the fact is it's based on THE primary indicators that PROFESSIONAL ECONOMISTS use - the LEI. The LEI has been pointing towards recovery coming since spring - and as a result so have I - and by and large I've been right.
And NO - the Conference Board which monitors these indicators is NOT a part of the Administration. It's a non-profit global business organization supported by business executives that holds conferences, convenes executives and conducts business management research.
Ken
PS - just so you know - this is what the Index of LEI was saying 2 years ago (November 2007) - just prior to the economy slipping into recession (7 of 10 indicators pointing DOWN - thus indicating a coming recession). It was right then - and it is right now. Sadly, back then, I wasn't bothering to keep track of it - if I had been I'd have been a lot smarter with my 401K (as I am now).
"Of the ten indicators in the composite, orders of consumer durable, real money supply and stock prices advanced in October while the remaining seven declined. Housing permits, initial jobless claims, and consumer expectations posted large drops in October."
What was these guys predictions in 2007 and the spring and summer of 2008? Were they forecasting a possible financial system collapse and the large decline in the stock market then?
I think it's safe to say that making predictions like this is akin to trying to read tea leaves. Nobody really knows, but factors such as impending inflation, increased taxes, surmounting national debt, etc. will no doubt factor in. As will the temporary holiday job numbers and the temporary census numbers too.
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