Your prediction - US Unemployment rate 6 months from now (stats, federal government, federal)

[Gary Siete]

In 6 months (July 4, 2010) will the US unemployment rate be higher or lower than the current 9.4% (not seasonally adjusted)?

Google - public data

[RazorRob305]

i say that we keep voting and dont argue this once ...and then come back here to this post in 6 months and see who was correct....i voted it will be higher

[Gary Siete]

Originally Posted by RazorRob305

i say that we keep voting and dont argue this once ...and then come back here to this post in 6 months and see who was correct....i voted it will be higher

Thank you for manning up and making a prediction.
I hope you are wrong - I'm self employed & don't want to face another year like 2009.

[gsupstate]

IMO, 2010 will be another 2009....slightly worse, and with a federal government mired in debt.

[TXTwizter]

I thought unemployment was 10%? I notice that your data is from November 2009......you should have waited until this Friday when the December unemployment stats come out to post this poll.

To answer the question though, I think it will hover around 10% well into 2010. I wouldn't doubt if it even reaches 12 or 13% before its all over with.

[LIS123]

Originally Posted by TXTwizter

I thought unemployment was 10%? I notice that your data is from November 2009......you should have waited until this Friday when the December unemployment stats come out to post this poll.

To answer the question though, I think it will hover around 10% well into 2010. I wouldn't doubt if it even reaches 12 or 13% before its all over with.

I think the current UE is 10% as mentioned above. It had shot up to 10.2%, but then dipped a bit.


As for my guess, I think the Government-cooked UE rate will be lower than 10% (the current rate) in June/2010 than it is now. This is b/c they cook-the-books by taking many people out of the labor pool (i.e. those that have stopped looking, etc.) and the Gov can hire census workers to artificially decrease the UE rate. The real UE rate, U6, is closer to 16.5-18% and should rise.

[TXTwizter]

Originally Posted by LIS123

I think the current UE is 10% as mentioned above. It had shot up to 10.2%, but then dipped a bit.


As for my guess, I think the Government-cooked UE rate will be lower than 10% (the current rate) in June/2010 than it is now. This is b/c they cook-the-books by taking many people out of the labor pool (i.e. those that have stopped looking, etc.) and the Gov can hire census workers to artificially decrease the UE rate. The real UE rate, U6, is closer to 16.5-18% and should rise.

I was thinking it was 10.5% in October, then dropped down to 10.2% in November. Whichever it may be, it is still about 8% TOO HIGH!!

[LIS123]

Originally Posted by TXTwizter

I was thinking it was 10.5% in October, then dropped down to 10.2% in November. Whichever it may be, it is still about 8% TOO HIGH!!

It peaked at 10.2%. That month must have been October of 2009.

[HappyTexan]

Government numbers: lower
Shadowstats numbers: higher

[jdm2008]

I think it is 10%.

In 6 months I say it will be 9.7% or so.