Quinnipiac Poll; Failure for 1st year - Split, Better off with McCain/Palin - Split

[Sunny-Days-in-Florida]

Originally Posted by sanrene

Have you noticed this?



Your "always" is wrong...again.

Good one Sanrene.

Do they ever get anything right or just babble?

The party of NO seems to always forget things. Wonder why?

[AnUnidentifiedMale]

At this point in Reagan's first term, his Gallup approval rating was at 48%. For George H.W. Bush, it was at 80%.

Obama is currently at 50%. The moral of the story: Approval ratings at this point prove virtually nothing.

Gallup.Com Politics News – Political Views, Job Approval Ratings, Insights for Leaders

[TnHilltopper]

Originally Posted by sanrene

National (US) Poll * January 13, 2010 * Obama's Approval Splits Evenly - Quinnipiac University – Hamden, Connecticut



He's tanking on all domestic issues, Health Care, Jobs, Economy.

I think come election time this year, he will likely be so toxic that most vulnerable dems will reject offers to rally the troops.

So, according to this poll, even if portrayed as you suggest, tanking and being an abject failure that compared to McCain-Palin it would still be a statistical dead heat?

I realize many American's aren't thrilled with the Obama Presidency so far, but by the looks of it, they also feel that it wouldn't matter if McCain had won.

As I suggested in another thread, there is more of an air of anti-incumbency than there is favor towards one party or the other. People just think their government sucks bog water, doesn't matter who is in office. I tend to agree, doesn't matter which party, neither has interest beyond themselves.

[RD5050]

Originally Posted by Sunny-Days90

No, by your party lead by Reid and Pelosi who created this mess.

Only liberals failed under Bush because he actually made you EARN a living.

And "some" call Obama the Bush twin because he seems to be doing the exact same things Bush did on many issues.

Face it, your boy could not run a damn kool aid stand without it going bankrupt in the first year.

How much more time do you need? We can talk in another year and you will still be making excuses for the moron.

Once he is gone we will have to clean up the WH because I am sure it will be a mess.

LETS DO COUNTDOWN TO OBAMA LEAVING!!!

OK, I'll begin ...

Jan 20, 2017,
Jan 19, 2017,
Jan 18, 2017,

.....

[thePR]

Originally Posted by sanrene

National (US) Poll * January 13, 2010 * Obama's Approval Splits Evenly - Quinnipiac University – Hamden, Connecticut



He's tanking on all domestic issues, Health Care, Jobs, Economy.

I think come election time this year, he will likely be so toxic that most vulnerable dems will reject offers to rally the troops.

I know that the American public is stupid and easily forgets. They have easily forgotten what Bush did for us, your God.

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by Fred314X

Aren't you fascinated by a "national" poll that questioned precisely 1,767 registered voters? Good golly, Miss Molly--they must be 1,767 of the most important people ever, to be telling the whole country of more than 275 million what we believe!

When I retired I left my statistical sampling book at work but the number sampled as representative of the population is based on randomness, confidence level and margin of error. Here it is made simple:

Margin of Error and Confidence Levels Made Simple

According to the Census Bureau for the 2008 Presidential election there were 225,449,000 people living in the US of which 206,072,000 were citizens and of which 146, 311,000 were registered to vote. For their results to be representative of registered voters, the sample size has to be based on 146,311,000. However, most pollsters say "likely voters" so they must know what percentage of registered voters are likely to vote in a non-presidential election year and apply that percent to 146,311,000 to come up with a total population number on which to calculate their sample size based on confidence level and margin of error.

I'm not sure what confidence level (99%, 95%, 90%, 85%, 80%) they use but in some polls I see, it appears the pollsters use plus/minus 3% for their margin of error because they seem to call anything within 3 percentage points (as in Jones 46%, Smith 48%) a statistical dead heat (tie). Obviously, a poll with a larger confidence level and low margin of error (as in "I am 99% confident, plus or minus 1%") is more desirable than "I am 80% confident, plus or minus 5%" and the sample size will reflect that.

You should pay attention to likely voters vs registered voters vs adults when comparing polls.
You should pay attention to how they ask the question. Four pollsters trying to determine Nancy Pelosi's approval rating could ask the question like this:

Do you approve of how Nancy Pelosi is doing her job?
Do you approve of how Democrat Nancy Pelosi is doing her job?
Do you approve of how Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is doing her job?
Do you approve of how Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-California) is doing her job?

In Number One, people may not know who Nancy Pelosi is and you might get a high number of I Don't Know responses. In Number 2 they may not know who Nancy Pelosi is but they have good or bad feelings about Democrats and they respond accordingly. In Number 3, they might not know anything Nancy Pelosi has done or who she is but the know the Speaker of the House sits behind the President at his State of the Union address and bangs a gavel. How badly could she be doing in that job? And, they respond accordingly. All kinds of for/against bias could impact the responses to the 4th question. All four pollsters will report their results as "Nancy Pelosi's approval rating."

You should pay attention to whether they are weighting their sample (i.e., polling more Democrats than Republicans or vice versa)

And you should look at the confidence level and margin of error.