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First off - your first point addresses Apple's profits, but it's not just PROFITS that are up at Apple - it's SALES. And it it's SALES that indicate the state of the consumer NOT Apple's PROFITS.
Secondly, OF COURSE the stimulus is responsible for the GDP growth in the 3rd quarter - that's the PURPOSE of the stimulus. It's SUPPOSED to be the source of GDP growth during the early stages of the recovery. The idea is that it serves to "prime the pump" to get the economy moving again (and people spending again) - and then as the economy begins to recover it's withdrawn. Geeze!
Ken
But when that doewn;t ahppen becasue the stimulus was not aimed at the consumer then its like we have now a flop. The stimulus has been targeted to maintain the status qoute in very limited areas of political interest.What is happening is that people know that the stimulus spending has to be paid for with interest;it wasn't free money. People just like businesses are taking a defensive posiiton for that reason. That is why savings has grown.Then of course there is the people who are still heavilty in debt that have had their credit cut and have no such money to spend or have loss their job causing the same.Once the fed starts to stop the massive liquidation that has repalced the consumer to a largte degreee;we will see interest rates rise and then we will know where we are,. But even then people and businesses are looking for a stable ;known enviroment to make decisons and the administration keeps changing their minds month to month.Much of teh credit spending is gone and will not return as rulkes tighten who gets credit to prevent such credit spending like we saw in the past that lead to this really.
The article used SEVERAL examples - Apple's increased sales were just ONE of them (it wasn't even the first example listed) - you are the one who focused in on Apple (not me). Look at how Christmas sales HERE in the US were UP - this IN SPITE of the fact that the unemployment rate is higher than it was in 2008's Christmas season. Look at the Consumer Confidence Index - on the move upward.
The fact is - consumers ARE returning (worldwide AND here in the US).
Ken
Hmmm...
Retail sales down in December, puzzling economists - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100114/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy - broken link)
The Austrian economic theory is nothing but a justification of a speculative boon and bust economy where the speculators lose and the financiers win.
You don't get it.
"The Austrian free-market economists use common sense principles. You cannot spend your way out of a recession. You cannot regulate the economy into oblivion and expect it to function. You cannot tax people and businesses to the point of near slavery and expect them to keep producing. You cannot create an abundance of money out of thin air without making all that paper worthless. The government cannot make up for rising unemployment by just hiring all the out of work people to be bureaucrats or send them unemployment checks forever. You cannot live beyond your means indefinitely. The economy must actually produce something others are willing to buy. Government growth is the opposite of all these things." How Keynesianism Gave Us The Decade Of Zero
Retail sales down in December, puzzling economists - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100114/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy - broken link)
Yeah, sales WERE down in December compared to November - but they were UP from December last year (note too that December sales last year were down from November of last year too) - and the overall season (November and December) sales were UP from last year. No one really knows why. Maybe it was the particularly lousy weather we had this past December (when much of the country was hammered by exceptionally severe storms).
Did you even read the article? Do you have anything to contribute besides name-calling?
My take is that this is a bunch of bull. A handful of firms announced revenue increases. Big whoop.
Whether or not the consumer is "dead" or "alive" can be measured by looking at consumer debt levels first and foremost. A small handful of stock market earnings (optimistic relative to their low expectations) are about as relevant to the state of the consumer as the price of tea in China.
Did you even read the article? Do you have anything to contribute?
My take is that this is a bunch of bull. A handful of "hot" consumer tech firms announced revenue increases. Big whoop - you can get an iPhone for $100 and they are selling like hotcakes.
Whether or not the consumer is "dead" or "alive" can be measured by looking at consumer debt levels first and foremost. Verizon's earnings are about as relevant to the consumer as the price of tea in China.
Yeah I read the article - DID YOU?
Apparently not.
"It would be alarming if this new spending is financed by credit cards at ridiculously high interest rates, but so far the numbers show that consumer savings are up and debt is heading down."
Anyone who wants to make money just needs to turn on CNBC and do the exact opposite of what most of the pundits recommend.
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It's SUPPOSED to be the source of GDP growth during the early stages of the recovery. The idea is that it serves to "prime the pump" to get the economy moving again (and people spending again) - and then as the economy begins to recover it's withdrawn. Geeze!
