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When you have a society and that is an working society of value to BUY something gold has value in any place in the world.
If the world ends gold no so much value as clean water, clothing and skills to stay alive.
Would it help to have some gold during this time sure... the paper money is worth nothing if the US treasury dept doesnt exist.
CASH was tied to gold and should remain that way to keep government spending unlimited power. Even silver is worth more the paper.
When you have a society and that is an working society of value to BUY something gold has value in any place in the world.
If the world ends gold no so much value as clean water, clothing and skills to stay alive.
Would it help to have some gold during this time sure... the paper money is worth nothing if the US treasury dept doesnt exist.
CASH was tied to gold and should remain that way to keep government spending unlimited power. Even silver is worth more the paper.
The Declaration of Independence is just "paper" too. So is the US Constitution.
It doesn't matter what the "material" is.
It's what the "material" represents.
Gold has no intrinsic value beyond what someone is willing to give you for it.
Same is true of paper money.
Gold is no more superior in that regard than paper money.
I don't really care.
Gold is WAY too volutile and risky.
But feel free to place your bets.
Ken
There is a fixed quantity of gold it can't be inflated. Money is being printed. http://www.leap2020.eu/photo/1237272-1612820.jpg Inflation is caused by more money. The question I'm asking is how have you done adjusted for inflation? I'm not saying that gold is where Alpha is currently. Gold is where Beta is. It is a safe and simple bet. Are you ahead of beta or behind beta? Are you Alpha?
Gold is subject to price manipulation. Same as oil and everything else.
What is happening with stocks is that they are being inflated up in price so that the dollar value looks good. But the value of the dollar is dropping. Are you ahead of the game or are you falling behind in the game. You keep bragging about how well you are doing show us.
There is a fixed quantity of gold it can't be inflated. Money is being printed. http://www.leap2020.eu/photo/1237272-1612820.jpg Inflation is caused by more money. The question I'm asking is how have you done adjusted for inflation? I'm not saying that gold is where Alpha is currently. Gold is where Beta is. It is a safe and simple bet. Are you ahead of beta or behind beta? Are you Alpha?
Gold is subject to price manipulation. Same as oil and everything else.
What is happening with stocks is that they are being inflated up in price so that the dollar value looks good. But the value of the dollar is dropping. Are you ahead of the game or are you falling behind in the game. You keep bragging about how well you are doing show us.
I am doing JUST FINE thank you very much.
Well enough to take my pension and my 401K and RETIRE.
If you are expecting a financial statement from me you'll be waiting a LONG TIME. LOL
Regarding the dollar - the dollar index is not a whole off where it was 5 years ago and the annualized inflation rate from 2000 through the end of 2009 was less than 2.5%.
I am doing JUST FINE thank you very much.
Well enough to take my pension and my 401K and RETIRE.
I'm glad to here that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
If you are expecting a financial statement from me you'll be waiting a LONG TIME. LOL
Your net worth is none of my business. Your sense of well being and your confidence in the future that comes from your financial security well you've made that everyone's business. I'm asking you is that based in reality or is it base on a false premise?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
Regarding the dollar - the dollar index is not a whole off where it was 5 years ago
So the dollar relative to other currencies hasn't changed much. This is what you would expect with the US currency as the worlds reserve currency. When we have inflation the world has inflation as well. Also the entire world is having an asset bubble at the same time so looking at one currency Vs, another wont tell you much. Looking at hard tangible stuff does.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
the annualized inflation rate from 2000 through the end of 2009 was less than 2.5%
http://www.johnmugarian.com/sgs-cpi.gif There are several ways to masseur inflation. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Au_annual_average_USD_price_1793-2005.png The price of gold is one way. What you can buy with a dollar is another. In February of 2002 1 gl of diesel was $1.159 now it is around $3. That is just about a 300% inflation in the price of diesel. Food has gone up as well. What did the stocks do? http://www.nyse.tv/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm From the start of 2002 or so they had close to a 200% increase in price. (And then a drop) That is less than the increase in the price of diesel. Stocks didn't keep up with diesel. Inflation. We are inflating away an asset bubble. If you had switched to gold at the peek back in 1999 or 2000 then you would be able to buy back twice as many stocks now. In dollars they have been stable in price.
I'm glad to here that.
Your net worth is none of my business. Your sense of well being and your confidence in the future that comes from your financial security well you've made that everyone's business. I'm asking you is that based in reality or is it base on a false premise?
So the dollar relative to other currencies hasn't changed much. This is what you would expect with the US currency as the worlds reserve currency. When we have inflation the world has inflation as well. Also the entire world is having an asset bubble at the same time so looking at one currency Vs, another wont tell you much. Looking at hard tangible stuff does. http://www.johnmugarian.com/sgs-cpi.gif There are several ways to masseur inflation. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Au_annual_average_USD_price_1793-2005.png The price of gold is one way. What you can buy with a dollar is another. In February of 2002 1 gl of diesel was $1.159 now it is around $3. That is just about a 300% inflation in the price of diesel. Food has gone up as well. What did the stocks do? http://www.nyse.tv/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm From the start of 2002 or so they had close to a 200% increase in price. (And then a drop) That is less than the increase in the price of diesel. Stocks didn't keep up with diesel. Inflation. We are inflating away an asset bubble. If you had switched to gold at the peek back in 1999 or 2000 then you would be able to buy back twice as many stocks now. In dollars they have been stable in price.
And if you bought gold in January of 1980 you waited nearly 30 YEARS to get back to even (not even taking into account what inflation did to those dollars you had tied up in that investment during that time!!!! Taking THAT into account, if you bought gold near its peak, that gold would have to rise another $800 from where it is TODAY for you to JUST BREAK EVEN after inflation!!!!!!).
Meanwhile the DOW went from around 1,000 to around 11,000.
I don't CARE what the price of gold is.
I don't MEASURE everything else in the price of gold - nor in diesel for than matter. But - for what it's worth, diesel price on Dec 5th 1994 was $1.37/gallon. Diesel price on April 5th 2010 was $3.10/gallon. That's a 226% increase.
The DOW at the end of 1994 was around 3600. The DOW today is around 11,000. That's a 327% increase. If you sold your diesel at the end of 1994 and bought DOW stocks, you could now buy 50% MORE DIESEL.
Your whole premise regarding these commodities is silly and pointless. Commodities bounce around ALL THE TIME. They tend to be VERY VOLATILE. Sometimes they'll be up vs the DOW, sometimes they'll be down vs the DOW. If you manage to catch a commodity on the way up and get out before it tanks you can do well. If you buy near the top and end up riding it down, you can lose a bundle (far more than you are likely to do with either a DOW or an S&P index fund). Buying ANY commodity is like buying an individual stock - lots of potential reward - and LOTS of potential risk.
What part of "I don't buy your spiel" do you not understand?
I don't like that kind of gamble.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 04-06-2010 at 03:29 PM..
If gold were to reach the same degree of over value today as it had in 1980 it would be at $7,000 per OZ.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
Meanwhile the DOW went from around 1,000 to around 11,000.
Ya you sell gold when the dow is low and gold is high. You buy gold when the dow is high and gold is low. 1999 for selling stock and buying gold. Now not so good I don't se much upward mobilaty in the price of stocks but downward mobility is there. Gold is at an all time high. But we are looking at the very real possibility of having hyper inflation. Selling stocks in 1966 and buying gold then selling gold in 1980 and buying stocks would've been brilliant. Now we are about half way down the other side of the curve so not as good an idea. In a big bull rally you want to be in stocks and not gold. 1980 until 1999. In a bear market gold isn't bad. 1999 until 2015~2020. Then you will want to switch back again into stocks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
I don't MEASURE everything else in the price of gold - nor in diesel for than matter. But - for what it's worth, diesel price on Dec 5th 1994 was $1.37/gallon. Diesel price on April 5th 2010 was $3.10/gallon. That's a 226% increase.
The DOW at the end of 1994 was around 3600. The DOW today is around 11,000. That's a 327% increase. If you sold your diesel at the end of 1994 and bought DOW stocks, you could now buy 50% MORE DIESEL.
Yip you could and owning stocks in a bull market is a no brainier. We are in a bear market. Or having another bubble take your pick.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
Your whole premise regarding these commodities is silly and pointless.
You haven't looked at my premis regarding comodities at all so I wont coment back at you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
Commodities bounce around ALL THE TIME. They tend to be VERY VOLATILE. Sometimes they'll be up vs the DOW, sometimes they'll be down vs the DOW. If you manage to catch a commodity on the way up and get out before it tanks you can do well. If you buy near the top and end up riding it down, you can lose a bundle (far more than you are likely to do with either a DOW or an S&P index fund). Buying ANY commodity is like buying an individual stock - lots of potential reward - and LOTS of potential risk.
CASH was tied to gold and should remain that way to keep government spending unlimited power. Even silver is worth more the paper.
The dollar is no longer pegged to gold for a number of reasons. Most obviously, gold is in limited supply and the growth of the global economy has outpaced the mining of gold. There isn't enough gold TO peg the global currency supply to.
The dollar is no longer pegged to gold for a number of reasons. Most obviously, gold is in limited supply and the growth of the global economy has outpaced the mining of gold. There isn't enough gold TO peg the global currency supply to.
Among other problems like we would attempt to balance trade by exporting our gold reserves.
If you had cashed out of stock and bought gold at the peek in 1999 you would be able to buy 4 times as many stocks today as you sold in 1999.
If we go back to where we were in 1980 you could buy 10 times as many stock if you were to cash out now and ride it down to where it was then. (If it goes back to where it was then) 1:1 ratio of stocks to gold.
That works out to a 40 fold increase in wealth on the way down from the peek in 1999. If you want to ride it that far. The dow was only a 15X rally on the way up.
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