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Old 04-16-2010, 02:44 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,727,547 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by florida.bob View Post
Actually, he has stated several times, this turn around in the economy has been paying him well. And, he is not alone.
That's true - but not because I PUSHED it, just because I SAW it coming and didn't listen to all the Chicken Littles.



Ken
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Old 04-16-2010, 02:54 PM
 
1,842 posts, read 1,495,265 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
That's true (and that's why the economy collapsed back in 2008) - but the damage to the banks was ALREADY DONE - and has since been mitigated.
I didn't take the time to find the link but I've read that we are in worse shape today than we were before the bank run it 2008. I don't feel the need to look it up because you will just say it doesn't matter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
The GS case is NOT talking about something happening TODAY. It's about what GS did at the height of the housing bubble - when it was pumping out these securities.

Ken
Are you telling me that the financial practices that GS is being tried for have all changed overnight? Good one.
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Old 04-16-2010, 02:57 PM
 
Location: Virginia Beach, VA
5,517 posts, read 8,995,053 times
Reputation: 2541
Quote:
Originally Posted by aliveandwellinSA View Post
maybe for the strong of heart with an extended time frame

I would say in the modern market, the best money is made in the very short term. The market is way too detached from any fundamentals to be very stable for the long term any more, in my opinion. You hold for a year or two, and you could see your initial investment completely wiped out, like the people who dumped money in around 1999, and held it there until September 01, or maybe people who dumped money in September of '08, who STILL havent gained back what they lost in many cases almost 2 years later.

It doesnt take a genius to look at a chart. Outside of the Vietnam Era, the Dow has steadily risen until the 2000's, where it has basically stagnated. In addition, the "dips" are much more pronounced, and the recoveries are just barely or not even getting the market back up to predip form.

This recent rally will almost certainly result in a deep dip within the next 3 years, from which the recovery will not even get us back to 1997-1998 levels. In fact, the way the market is swinging wildly, and the fact that the current rally that started at the end of February has definatley worn out its historic welcome, I wouldnt be surprised to see that big dip within the next year.

However, next time around, Im going to be standing there to scoop up Citi at .97 a share, and sell it to some dumb ass 1 year later for $5 a share.
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Old 04-16-2010, 03:07 PM
 
1,842 posts, read 1,495,265 times
Reputation: 169
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
That's true - but not because I PUSHED it, just because I SAW it coming and didn't listen to all the Chicken Littles.



Ken
mauldin "recovery" a statistical illusion and tax hikes will kill it anyway: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance This is an intersting article from a different thread.

"I haven't changed my point of view," he says. "The recovery is statistical [mainly] inventory rebuilding. That's a good thing. Consumer sales were good but we're comparing to really, really bad numbers from a year ago."
And while the stock market (and Ben Bernanke) might take solace in the tame core CPI, which posted its lowest annual rise since January 2004, it's evidence "we're in a deflationary environment," Mauldin says. "You'd better hope we have some inflation."

(But what really worries Mauldin is the prospect for higher taxes and lower spending at all levels of government. Higher taxes and less government spending will tip the economy back into recession in 2011, he predicts, suggesting growth will be much weaker at the end of 2010 as it now appears.) From the link.

there are two very different economic outlooks take your pic.
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Old 04-16-2010, 03:20 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,727,547 times
Reputation: 7167
Quote:
Originally Posted by newonecoming View Post
mauldin "recovery" a statistical illusion and tax hikes will kill it anyway: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance This is an intersting article from a different thread.

"I haven't changed my point of view," he says. "The recovery is statistical [mainly] inventory rebuilding. That's a good thing. Consumer sales were good but we're comparing to really, really bad numbers from a year ago."
And while the stock market (and Ben Bernanke) might take solace in the tame core CPI, which posted its lowest annual rise since January 2004, it's evidence "we're in a deflationary environment," Mauldin says. "You'd better hope we have some inflation."

(But what really worries Mauldin is the prospect for higher taxes and lower spending at all levels of government. Higher taxes and less government spending will tip the economy back into recession in 2011, he predicts, suggesting growth will be much weaker at the end of 2010 as it now appears.) From the link.

there are two very different economic outlooks take your pic.
I HAVE taken my pick - I did back in March/April of last year when I first noted the Index of LEI rising - and apparently so have many former skeptics. From your link:

Retail sales surged in March while core consumer inflation remains tame and businesses are starting to rebuild inventories, according to separate reports released Wednesday...

...While many skeptics have thrown in the towel in the face of such developments, John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors remains steadfast.


Not all of them have faced reality yet - but many have, and denying it will become harder and harder as the year progresses.

Funny that after all the claims on this board about high inflation and hyperinflation, here you go posting warning that we're not having ENOUGH inflation.
LOL



Ken
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Old 04-16-2010, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
7,090 posts, read 10,738,849 times
Reputation: 4107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferd View Post
... the same thing was said about republicans during the healthcare deal.

but they had 5 or 6 proposals.

so you suggesting that republicans dont have a plan dont mean it aint so.

I have watched several republicans give outlines of the kind of reform that is needed.

and i appologize for screaming but talking quitely doesnt seem to work.
LoL, that's funny. Just imagine this example (I use this one because it has happened in school) where you have two people writing a proposal to implement.

They both write up something and push it forward, both have merits and they agree to write it out and debate it. One person takes it, writes it out point by point with all the contingencies and tries to debate it with the other. The other points to the same summary and says that's their rebuttal, and the other must be rejected completely without any more work on details or compromise or plan to do more work.

With a deadline looming, the person who has done the work brings up the subject publicly the work done and the rebuttal by the other so they can push forward and get it implemented. The other person complains publicly the person who did the work is unfair for not considering his portion, then continues to push the outline still without any work done.

Finally, it's do or die. The class must vote on one or the other, the researched and documented proposal or the rough outline. The outline kid still yelling it's unfair his is not considered, and unfair that people refuse to accept it by not voting the other as no outright.

Who's fault is it really that his proposal is not considered? Was that really a valid proposal?

This kind of argument is something I would expect out of a 10 year old, not the leadership of a political party.
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Old 04-16-2010, 03:34 PM
 
16,268 posts, read 9,078,756 times
Reputation: 6540
Quote:
Originally Posted by subsound View Post
LoL, that's funny. Just imagine this example (I use this one because it has happened in school) where you have two people writing a proposal to implement.

They both write up something and push it forward, both have merits and they agree to write it out and debate it. One person takes it, writes it out point by point with all the contingencies and tries to debate it with the other. The other points to the same summary and says that's their rebuttal, and the other must be rejected completely without any more work on details or compromise or plan to do more work.

With a deadline looming, the person who has done the work brings up the subject publicly the work done and the rebuttal by the other so they can push forward and get it implemented. The other person complains publicly the person who did the work is unfair for not considering his portion, then continues to push the outline still without any work done.

Finally, it's do or die. The class must vote on one or the other, the researched and documented proposal or the rough outline. The outline kid still yelling it's unfair his is not considered, and unfair that people refuse to accept it by not voting the other one no outright (especially after he flunks the assignment).

Who's fault is it really that his proposal is not considered?

This kind of argument is something I would expect out of a 10 year old, not the leadership of a political party.
look, i am not arguing that the republicans version should be considered here. I am stating the fact that the democrats have flatly denied the existance of Republican proposals.

the democrats were lying about it.
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Old 04-16-2010, 04:00 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
7,090 posts, read 10,738,849 times
Reputation: 4107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferd View Post
look, i am not arguing that the republicans version should be considered here. I am stating the fact that the democrats have flatly denied the existance of Republican proposals.

the democrats were lying about it.
No one lied about not having a proposal, they said it's not an acceptable proposal.

It's called the Balance Fallacy of Logic - The balance fallacy occurs when two sides of an argument are to be assumed to have equal value, whether or not both are sane. This can lead to the belief that the truth must lie somewhere in between the two opposing sides, when in fact it's possible that one side is completely wrong.

One side championing they have a proposal, but refuse to divulge any details, or to present a proposal that's grossly flimsy (like the health care proposal that was 3 pages long) fits this pretty well. Especially when they claim everyone must reject the other proposal outright due to their "counter proposal".

All they are doing now is trying to portray the other side as evil because they refuse to accept their flimsy and nearly nonexistent proposals. To make people who identify with conservative values feel like that they are being dismissed...instead of voters taking the leadership to task for presenting delusional proposals and spewing hate when people overlook it.
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Old 04-16-2010, 04:54 PM
 
Location: New York (liberal cesspool)
918 posts, read 709,038 times
Reputation: 222
Default florida.bob...Will you never change?

Quote:
Originally Posted by florida.bob View Post
To the contrary, I believe the WH and the Dems will use this action to support their efforts to get reform thru Congress. It will be increasingly hard for the Repubs to continue to try to prevent that from happening. And who are "their own people" you are referring to? Right now the action is a Civil complaint, that may turn to Criminal depending to Cuomo in NY.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
To the contrary, I believe the WH and the Dems will use this action to support their efforts to get reform thru Congress.
You are talking of course about Tommie Dodd's legislative joke, the only 'solution" on the legislative horizon. "reform" is what you call it? I find that immensely humorous in light of this article I just read in that bastion of ultra-right wing conservatism, The Huff 'n Puff Post. It opens like this:
Quote:
Amid all the press preening and words of tepid support from reformers, banks may have much to love about Senator Chris Dodd's latest piece of legislation.
On his blog, the Roosevelt Institute's Mike Konczal is wracking his brain to find something that Goldman Sachs lobbyists will absolutely loathe about the Dodd bill -- in fact, he wants you to help him.
His final verdict: "If I was a Goldman lobbyist, I'd probably shrug and go 'eh, pass it.'"
And continues here> Why Dodd's Financial Reform Bill Is A Lesson On How 'Broken' The Senate Is
Commenting on this bill, William Isaac, a former Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairman who is now the chairman of LECG opined as follows:
"They have moved some things around, but it's a shell game,". It is so, because it simply changes the names of and moves the chairs around the room of the regulatory agencies in a typical political much ado about nothing exercise. You see bob the problem is as it always has been. POWER! The ability for politicians to appear to be controlling banks and brokerage houses whilst they indulge themselves in various exercises of corrupting leverage to wheel and deal in their insatiable quest for power and influence. Issacs finished up saying..."It's really not fixing the regulatory system. … You are not solving any meaningful problems the way this bill is being watered down. It's a bill that the trade groups and the large institutions have worked hard to neuter and they have succeeded." Let me NOT give the impression tht it's a demonRATic politician problem exclusively. Absolutely not. It's a problem with the party in power. Right now that's your guys!

What truly is needed bob, if you step down from your politically polarized pulpit for a moment, is a law entitled Violations of The Public Trust. I first broached this many years ago when I posted on freerepublic. The catch22 paradox is and always has been, that we expect the fox to regulate how he assaults the chicken coop. And most of the foxes are lawyers to boot! Likely the only way, which I stated then and hold to, is for some presidential candidate to enter a draft of a bill as part and parcel of his party platform and announce that if he is elected, this will be submitted without change or amendment by his party leadership. THEN, when that is actually done whomever seeks to water it down will be held in the spotlight of media glare. If he/she reneges on said promise they can be pilloried for it. Even then, I admit, it's idealistic and dubious as to success, but reality calls. Something MUST be attempted to rein in the snakes and weasels.

The clown you are relying upon should have been under indictment long ago. I just recently posted this to another topic, for which I researched it, as a glowing example of chicanery on display.
Quote:
The guy who has been responsible for writing and pushing for the new FINANCIAL REFORM legislation on his way out the door to escape culpability for the Fannie/Freddie debacle, Little Tommie Dodd(D-CT) as his parting gift just happened to forget addressing derivatives AT ALL in that bill. Uh oh!? This; however, DOES have everything to do with 'political partisanship'.

Let me ask a question of those posting here who are demonRATs. Do you suppose it has anything to do with the fact that Tommie-boy's "old lady", known is US economic circles as "Jackie Clegg" (so as to distance herself from a too cozy relationship and appearance of impropriety, to the Senator who makes the economic laws) is the Director of the CME? Remember that this is the same Tommie-boy Dodd who along with Bernice Frankly, enabled much of the Fannie/Freddie taxpayer scam with the Community Reinvestment Act.

Let's play CONNECT THE DOTS, okay!
DOT - CME stands for Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the house in which futures are traded. CME Group is the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace. WakeUpCall...HELLLLOOOOO!
DOT - Mrs. Tommie Dodd had a salary as Director there last year of $153, LARGE.
DOT - Mrs. Tommie Dodd owns shares in that little market venture in excess of $200, LARGE.
DOT- The innocuos bio of Ms. Jackie Clegg, travelling incognito here. CMEGroup.com makes NO mention WHATSOEVER of whom she has been married to during her most 'influential' and 'connected' career.
DOT - Her SEC filing, under that name, shows affiliations with many financial entities that her "old man" has some political interest in. She is on the boards of Javelin Pharmaceuticals Inc., Cardiome Pharma Corp., Brookdale Senior Living and Pear Tree Pharmaceuticals and last year received compensation in the neighborhood of $230, LARGE, a nice neighborhood to be in fo'sure! At the same time her "old man" was chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, which had a major role in the writing of ObaCare..OOPS!
DOT - While Clegg was a former staff member on the Senate Banking Committee, and a former chief operating officer of the U.S. Export- Import Bank, Little Tommie-boy was the top-ranked Democrat on the Senate banking panel's subcommittee on financial institutions. No red lights flashing there either, huh!


Sources:
Key health care senators have industry ties - Capitol Hill- msnbc.com
Senate Spouses Find Jobs on Boards of PepsiCo, ConocoPhillips - Bloomberg.com
Chris Dodd's wife and derivatives trading - "all in the family" | The Economic Populist
So you see florida.bob, you are relying on the wrong guy for true reform.
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Old 04-16-2010, 05:50 PM
 
1,842 posts, read 1,495,265 times
Reputation: 169
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
I HAVE taken my pick - I did back in March/April of last year when I first noted the Index of LEI rising - and apparently so have many former skeptics. From your link:

Retail sales surged in March while core consumer inflation remains tame and businesses are starting to rebuild inventories, according to separate reports released Wednesday...

...While many skeptics have thrown in the towel in the face of such developments, John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors remains steadfast.

Not all of them have faced reality yet - but many have, and denying it will become harder and harder as the year progresses.

Funny that after all the claims on this board about high inflation and hyperinflation, here you go posting warning that we're not having ENOUGH inflation.
LOL



Ken
The conclution of the articl was that the economic outlook at thye end of the year wqs going to be far diferent than it is now and not as good.
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